Downeastnc
Member
Calling for a increase chance of severe weather in the lower Miss valley in March......not exactly going out on a limb.
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Severe weather 2020
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
Calling for a increase chance of severe weather in the lower Miss valley in March......not exactly going out on a limb.
D
Deleted member 527
Guest
I will pass on anymore severe wx. My family has seen enough as most in TN has.
If ensembles/OPs are right with the SER flex in the LR, severe weather is gonna be a issue headed forward through this March, I see why BAM has those areas highlighted (on the edge of the SER)
tennessee storm
Member
Yeah long range on today’s euro h5 patterns really setting up for some severe threats ... going be interesting as we head further get into spring
Things are gonna start heating up 
accu35
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Bring it!!!!
Tennessee under a tor con of 6 today.
SPC says EF2 or stronger tornadoes possible.
NAM looks to bring some damaging winds maybe large hail to western NC. Sharp cutoff near the black line IMO. 
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I heard a met on the radio this morning say the setup is similar to the one that caused the tornadoes in TN recently.
Yep ingredients there for a strong tornadoes after dark.
Some of these soundings are a bit scary, especially if models are way to bullish on the stable layer that develops at night 
tennessee storm
Member
The 0z euro is just plain down right nasty late next week. Fun watching this one during week
2 enhanced areas out to our north-west today. This is not a good time to lose power and food at homes or businesses. I encourage everyone in the Carolinas to start getting shelf stable items as the severe transitions to us over the next few weeks.
smast16
Member
Or a Generator.
BufordWX
Member
SPC putting out a 15% risk area for day 4 in North Alabama and Mississippi as well as Western and Central Tennessee.
...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...
On Tuesday, the medium-range models are in good agreement, moving an upper-level trough into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of this feature, model forecasts advect low-level moisture into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorms appear most likely to develop beneath the mid-level jet along the instability axis centered in the mid Mississippi Valley. These storms would move eastward across western Kentucky, western Tennessee, northern Mississippi and northern Alabama during the afternoon. Forecast instability combined with strong deep-layer shear should be favorable for a severe threat Tuesday afternoon and evening.
...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...
On Tuesday, the medium-range models are in good agreement, moving an upper-level trough into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of this feature, model forecasts advect low-level moisture into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorms appear most likely to develop beneath the mid-level jet along the instability axis centered in the mid Mississippi Valley. These storms would move eastward across western Kentucky, western Tennessee, northern Mississippi and northern Alabama during the afternoon. Forecast instability combined with strong deep-layer shear should be favorable for a severe threat Tuesday afternoon and evening.
The system on 3/24 has good potential.
pcbjr
Member
"good potential" for what?
tennessee storm
Member
For nice severe outbreak ... got my eye on that one
pcbjr
Member
was afraid you'd say that ...
The general longwave pattern for the next 1 and a half weeks looks quite favorable for severe weather, gfs shows another setup after the one on the 23rd/24th, things are getting busy 
And speaking of that setup on the 24th, the most concerning area in my opinion is Tennessee
And speaking of that setup on the 24th, the most concerning area in my opinion is Tennessee
Yep.
And usually, when the SPC has a highlighted area 4 - 8 days out for severe weather, the event's going to be a big one.
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“Nice severe outbreak” is an oxymoron. There’s nothing nice about it. So, hopefully it won’t be that bad.
tennessee storm
Member
all depends if your a storm chaser, which I like doing spare time... this time year I try to find time between march 1st to middle may
BufordWX
Member
Another severe threat looks to be materializing for Saturday in parts of Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama. SPC already with a 15% Outlook at day 5.
On Saturday, the models remain in good agreement, moving the upper-level trough into the upper Mississippi Valley and Ozarks. A cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward into the Mississippi Valley as a moist airmass advects northward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Weak instability appears likely to develop across parts of the moist sector by afternoon. Thunderstorms that form along and ahead of the cold front should move eastward across the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast States during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong enough to support a severe threat. Wind damage, hail and possibly a tornado threat could develop Saturday afternoon.
On Saturday, the models remain in good agreement, moving the upper-level trough into the upper Mississippi Valley and Ozarks. A cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward into the Mississippi Valley as a moist airmass advects northward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Weak instability appears likely to develop across parts of the moist sector by afternoon. Thunderstorms that form along and ahead of the cold front should move eastward across the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast States during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong enough to support a severe threat. Wind damage, hail and possibly a tornado threat could develop Saturday afternoon.
The SPC has upgraded the TN/AL border region to an enhanced risk today
BHS1975
Member
HRRR looks nasty.
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VegasEagle
Member
Possible Tornado in North Alabama
The system on 3/31 looks to be another shot for severe weather.
BufordWX
Member
Euro has a pretty deep 991 mb low on the Mississippi/Alabama border. Fairly strong looking storm.
That 3/31-4/1 storm looks legit
BHS1975
Member
Oooof
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YepOooof
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thanksgivingbrown
Member
Woke up this morning to tree damage in the backyard and one of our bay windows blown out. Luckily the tree didn’t land on the house but it did take out our privacy fence. Gonna be a long weekend of clean up.
BHS1975
Member
Looks like another severe wx event hr 156 GFS from New Orleans to the OBX. Not as bad as current one tho
Ofc this is gonna trend in a bad direction, it’s 2020 
BufordWX
Member
Last ten days of the month could get very active. Gfs still showing a wave train coming off the pacific.
Yeah this is just the beginning tbh, hopefully the cooler/trough happy ECMWF/EPS is right
tennessee storm
Member
yeah the aam is going negative... fixing to be tapping moisture from the carribbean ... mjo enetering a stormy phase also by end month, fixing to get very active