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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

See light snow report Haywood County, Waynesville area. Nada on ski cams northern mtns last check. Hard to find flurries, with snow guns blasting
 
superjames1992 said:
Interestingly, he upped totals here a little. Less mixing, I guess. He lowered totals out west towards the Triad, though, and also in E NC. His call seems reasonable, in any case, though I think places like CLT will do better than T-1”, personally.
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Yeah I'm thinking it has to do with it appearing like the system will be a little less amped, which has better thermal profiles but also less QPF
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah I'm thinking it has to do with it appearing like the system will be a little less amped, which has better thermal profiles but also less QPF
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Yep, this is why I said yesterday to take your forecast sn total and divide by 2 and it would be close to actual as the NAM tends to over amp
 
iGrey_X said:
View attachment 35860
Looks to be even colder.
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Yea you can see how much it changed in 1 hour time comparing to the earlier one I posted. Thanks for posting that. Think GSO was at 56 RH earlier this morning in Dendrite Growth Zone Area on the Nam 6z. Sure its a lot higher now, but no way to check realtime , unless airplanes send data back in or they launch a new weather balloon.
 
Rain Cold said:
What do you think about the Hrrrrrr? Seems to be showing an awful lot of rain.
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I read last night that it is no longer ran parallel and a new HRRR4 is supposed to be implemented later this year. Because of this not only does the current HRRR miss in transition zones (PBL mixing issues) but it also misses on northward extent of modeled reflectivity. Because of this I’m not considering how dry it is for areas west of I-95


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RAP and HRRR remain rock solid over the Triad with qpf. totals of .25-.3" That's probably 1-1.5" accumulation at best given most of it will fall during the daylight hours. The only saving grace could be that these models are ending the precipitation too soon.
 
MHX disco.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 320 AM Thurs...Winter Storm Warnings are now in effect for
much of the area, with Winter Weather Advisories continuing for
the rest of Eastern NC except for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands,
as confidence has increased on a more widespread moderate snow
event with snow totals of 4-6 inches expected generally north of
the Neuse River and then spreading east to the Alligator River.
With some mesoscale banding expected to develop in this area,
locally heavier snow amounts of 6-10 inches are possible.
Further to the south and east, initially warm temps both aloft
and at the surface will limit snow totals as the changeover to
snow will be delayed until 10 pm or midnight (There could be a
few hour period of sleet along and south of US 70 early
tonight). Still amounts of 1-2 inches are expected with some
locally higher amounts of 2-4 inches possible.
 
Poimen said:
RAP and HRRR remain rock solid over the Triad with qpf. totals of .25-.3" That's probably 1-1.5" accumulation at best given most of it will fall during the daylight hours. The only saving grace could be that these models are ending the precipitation too soon.
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We got a long ways to go before this spigot shuts down

1582203804579.png
 
WeatherNC said:
MHX disco.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 320 AM Thurs...Winter Storm Warnings are now in effect for
much of the area, with Winter Weather Advisories continuing for
the rest of Eastern NC except for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands,
as confidence has increased on a more widespread moderate snow
event with snow totals of 4-6 inches expected generally north of
the Neuse River and then spreading east to the Alligator River.
With some mesoscale banding expected to develop in this area,
locally heavier snow amounts of 6-10 inches are possible.
Further to the south and east, initially warm temps both aloft
and at the surface will limit snow totals as the changeover to
snow will be delayed until 10 pm or midnight (There could be a
few hour period of sleet along and south of US 70 early
tonight). Still amounts of 1-2 inches are expected with some
locally higher amounts of 2-4 inches possible.
Click to expand...

Yeah saw that.....bullish for them....general 6-10" for Pitt Co and PGV sounds about right though historically we do really well in these setups.
 
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