John1122
Member
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
John1122
Member
I wouldn't be surprised to see the NAM roll in with 10+ inches somewhere. If it's going to fold, it usually starts around 36 hours.
As long as the NAM holds I would count the euro as an outlier to much agreement with other model and we're getting into hi res time....
Storm5
Member
06z NAM is a very nice hit for southern Tenn . Norther miss , ala and GA
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Storm5
Member
06z NAM
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John1122
Member
NAM didn't disappoint. Even has me with 4 inches. I would expect it will either step towards the Euro big soon or they will battle it out for the next 24-36 hours.
My bad I'm on tidbits I've been posting 0z runs
John1122
Member
The 3k out to 60 is similar to the 12k. Probably a little less overall precip but sometimes it really seems to focus too much on small micro details of terrain in East Tennessee.
15" jackpot around Greenville (NC)
John1122
Member
I knew the NAM would have at least another 10 inch run in it. Maybe a few more. It will probably be pretty close around 36 hours to it's final and closest solution.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 0z Euro is on the drier side of its ensemble suite.
NCCWOP9077
Member
What are your thoughts on the modeling? The NAM keeps cranking out some decent snow for NC yet the EPS has cut back some with a little over 48 hours till verification.
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Six Mile Wx
Member
NCCWOP9077
Member
WPC 2+ inch snowfall probabilities
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NCHighCountryWX
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WPC's over night updates for 1", 2" and 4"
Last edited:
ajr
Member
Last four SREF plumes for RDU for snowfall FWIW - modeled precipitation is anemic (~0.1in)
Forevertothee
Member
GSP
For the rest of the forecast period, all eyes and interests remain
on the potential for snow across the area Thursday and Thursday
night. The general consensus of the latest model guidance continues
to place the recently passed cold front well south of the area, with
cyclogenesis progged to develop somewhere along this feature just
off the Carolina/GA coast. However, in regards to available moisture
and supportive upper dynamics, guidance just isn`t in agreement.
This has been a trend for the past few days, with models coming in
wetter one run, then drier the next. With this latest run, the 00Z
ECMWF comes in slightly drier than before. With that said,
collaborating with neighbors, have kept with the bulk of the
moisture coming in Thursday afternoon into Thursday night (at or
less than a quarter of an inch QPF), as colder temperatures
infiltrate in. However, per latest guidance and fcst soundings,
anticipate precipitation to begin as early as Thursday morning
across the southern mountains, where a rain, snow, rain/snow mix is
expected at the onset of precip. As the precipitation expands
northeastward into the area, areas along and south of the I-85
corridor look to remain warm enough for all rain through the
afternoon and evening hours, as max temperatures climb into the
lower 40s. While areas over the NW Piedmont could see a few
snowflakes mixed in. A transition to a rain/snow mix is expected
into Thursday night as any lingering precipitation tapers off and
temperatures drop. Given the warmer temperatures during the day, do
not anticipate any travel concerns at this time across the Upstate
and NW Piedmont. As for the mountains, max temperatures on Thursday
will struggle to warm as much as the Upstate and NW Piedmont, with
many areas progged to remain around freezing. Thus, snow
accumulations will be possible, mainly a dusting to below an inch in
some locations, with up to 2 inches possible across the higher
elevations. With this said, any slight changes in the coming model
runs will easily change the outcome of this event. Thus, best to
keep close attention as we draw closer in time.
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For the rest of the forecast period, all eyes and interests remain
on the potential for snow across the area Thursday and Thursday
night. The general consensus of the latest model guidance continues
to place the recently passed cold front well south of the area, with
cyclogenesis progged to develop somewhere along this feature just
off the Carolina/GA coast. However, in regards to available moisture
and supportive upper dynamics, guidance just isn`t in agreement.
This has been a trend for the past few days, with models coming in
wetter one run, then drier the next. With this latest run, the 00Z
ECMWF comes in slightly drier than before. With that said,
collaborating with neighbors, have kept with the bulk of the
moisture coming in Thursday afternoon into Thursday night (at or
less than a quarter of an inch QPF), as colder temperatures
infiltrate in. However, per latest guidance and fcst soundings,
anticipate precipitation to begin as early as Thursday morning
across the southern mountains, where a rain, snow, rain/snow mix is
expected at the onset of precip. As the precipitation expands
northeastward into the area, areas along and south of the I-85
corridor look to remain warm enough for all rain through the
afternoon and evening hours, as max temperatures climb into the
lower 40s. While areas over the NW Piedmont could see a few
snowflakes mixed in. A transition to a rain/snow mix is expected
into Thursday night as any lingering precipitation tapers off and
temperatures drop. Given the warmer temperatures during the day, do
not anticipate any travel concerns at this time across the Upstate
and NW Piedmont. As for the mountains, max temperatures on Thursday
will struggle to warm as much as the Upstate and NW Piedmont, with
many areas progged to remain around freezing. Thus, snow
accumulations will be possible, mainly a dusting to below an inch in
some locations, with up to 2 inches possible across the higher
elevations. With this said, any slight changes in the coming model
runs will easily change the outcome of this event. Thus, best to
keep close attention as we draw closer in time.
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BHS1975
Member
Man I was hoping the euro would come around. This could be a major victory for the NAM again.
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