I think your best bet is that the overrunning proves to be a bit heavier/further northwest than progged. We've certainly seen models miss that plenty of times even at the last second, but I wouldn't get my hopes up necessarily. Probably a 1-3" type event in the Triad, IMO (and more likely to the lower end of that, especially as you move NW).
This is a good one
weather.cod.edu
Nam has been pretty consistent with my area, had 1 spike run of 7 inches in areas yesterday, but mostly its been adverting 2-5 through Randolph county. We are on the west edge. So your talking a tenth to two tenths qpf. Very impressed how it perfirmed from 84hrs to go time today. Hands down beat the globals to the punch imo.
Um that’s melting a loft more so than heavy returns. Temps in the mid 30s with light to steady precip.
Those returns were what we saw with the last system ... heavy precip easily
The higher returns are due largely to melting but you don’t get the excess melting without heavier precip to begin with.
I'm about 10 miles south from there and we just have Rain and 42 at the moment
Going off of recent short range models, 3/12 km NAM, WRF-ARW2 and HRRR are spot on with the current temps here. Latest HRRR is spot on with current temps and dewpoints.
I see some spotty sleet reports in northern upstate but that's all
I definitely agree here .. I think the faster you get saturated the easier it is to get more returns and more precip in any one area
I would be careful using the smaller sites/stations. Their readings (particularly dew point) could be off. For Wake Forest you could use the Franklin County Airport:
CAD is actually to blame for bringing dry north-East winds with low dp. Usually it’s confined to Surry/Wilkes but I think the issue became more widespread when you start to compound transfer issues it’s like a double whammy for the entire Triad region west. Those stale cold dry winds will work to eat away some precip but maybe not all.
