Here are some soundings
even has soundings supportive of wet heavy snow that far south 
even has soundings supportive of wet heavy snow that far south 
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
But it is not the almighty Euro. Plus, the Euro is still the most conservative solution, so we have to go with that one and not even present other possibilities and trends from the rest of the models. .
Correct. We need the Euro on board, soon.
Curious how the NAM’s setup is going to play into this? I’m assuming the GFS is underestimating low level FGEN/WAA. That could potentially increase precip early on before the system transfers leading to much higher totals.
BHS1975
Member
Lord have mercy, my sounding from the nam at 78 look at that omega
LovingGulfLows
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 1,300
- Reaction score
- 3,299
GFS is so close for my backyard at hour 69 ? . This is during heavy precip too.
Broken024
Member
When does ukie run?
snowlover91
Member
I expect with the 00z suite all coming into agreement with the coastal and more qpf that the Euro will follow tonight as well. GFS, ICON, NAM and probably CMC on board. Just need UK and Euro fully there which I expect to happen tonight.
NAM is doing much better than usual. Going to review it more when winter is over and weigh it more possibly. I think the euro is gonna come to the party soon with the gfs being late esp on thermals.
iGrey_X
Member
Those in the upstate don’t worry about what the surface says. The soundings support snow from the beginning and never get above 37-38 degrees which is likely 2-4 degrees too warm at the surface. The column supports snow all the way. That would likely have been a 3-6 incher all across the upstate East towards Charlotte and I95.
I wish I could unsee. Nam and gfs both are getting pretty high on the fgen across parts of nc. Can't see those fields on the icon but have to assume it's a good mix of gfs/nam
The 60 hour 3KM NAM was already running 1-2 degrees lower @ 850 than the 12KM, so tomorrow should be a good time as everything comes into range for it.
Snowflowxxl
Member
I have a feeling metro ATL will see some decent snow at least on the back end. I’ve seen this type set up many a times and it always trends better. We still have three days to get this on our side, plenty of time. I bet by this time tomorrow the NAM will have thrown us a bone.GFS is so close for my backyard at hour 69 ? . This is during heavy precip too.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I wonder with all the precip we have had in NC since November which model has done the best with getting the amount of precip here correct with the systems that have been through.
BHS1975
Member
I've thought for a while that the area that can overlap the initial shot of moisture and the late coastal/upper level enhancement had a shot at 6+. I'd really like to see the euro/uk on board now
Avalanche
Member
Shifted lp and associated shield way west. One good thing about inland convection from the east, it usually doesnt "rob" other areas like it does when its gulf based.
Yeah if there's a setup that favors cold rain, kylo, and myself its something like this
Edit..errr rain cold