That isn't a bad over/under. I will actually take the over, I think the last week of the month gets it done.
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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age
- Thread starter Ilovesnow28
- Start date
Well FWIW, the NAM is juicing up the ULL behind our weekend system, with snow down to AR
12KM Nam still a nice look for WNC mountains. I will hug untill the very end
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Stormlover
Member
NAM has done very well on some winter events the last few years
So anywhere between a r/s mix, dry, and 9-12”..that helps me a lot ??
That’s going to be key for higher elevations come Sunday..I need to see the Ukie and Euro on board
The AO looks like it will finish 3rd highest for January since 1950 with something near +2.5. The only higher ones would be 1989 and 1993. Each of those years featured a big snowstorm for a large portion of the active members between late Feb and mid March. Just food for thought that things can turn around abruptly from the darkest of dark rather than a prediction of a big late season SE snowstorm.
In the meantime, though maybe not quite as deeply in the commode as mid January, the AO still looks dark into mid Feb:
In the meantime, though maybe not quite as deeply in the commode as mid January, the AO still looks dark into mid Feb:
That is the whole reason right there even with the favorable windows where the upper air pattern is favorable it's not cold enough.
Meanwhile, all is not dark due to the very strong +AO. Check out the Arctic, which has cooled to near normal! Let’s see if we can get a BN period there in Feb:
**Edit: I think it is interesting that the coldest days’ normals in the Arctic are not til very late Feb and that it hardly warms til mid March, owing to the continued 24 hour darkness there. That’s why you can still get very cold air way down here even in early to mid March.
**Edit: I think it is interesting that the coldest days’ normals in the Arctic are not til very late Feb and that it hardly warms til mid March, owing to the continued 24 hour darkness there. That’s why you can still get very cold air way down here even in early to mid March.
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GFS looked pretty good with the trailing wave!!
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yes it’ll change alright, we will have an even uglier pattern modeled in a few days
Cuts off and swings an ULL just to our south, good 700 mb moisture and VV's but BL is on fire.... is it even remotely possible this trends better and we get a token frozen something??
I’m not sure it’s understood, the difference in “trends” and just a singular snapshot of a fantasy model run.
Storm5
Member
I’m still a fan of the 6th-8th for some sort of possible overrunning event . Especially for western areas as the SE ridge tries to push back against the front
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Lol JB on twitter
Snow with temps near 50 seems difficult. I would imagine that if precipitation falls, it will be quite a bit colder. But I don't know if we can make up enough ground. How nice would an Arctic high pressure be right now?
Snow with temps near 50 is near impossible, come on man I know that.... that's why I said the BL was on fire.
edit: Btw the time I was speaking of shows temps around 40 imby
Wouldn’t do us any good as it would retreat to the other side of the globe when precip moved in. We are going to score again soon rather than later. It doesn’t just stop snowing one year and never snow again. 2021 should bring winter back to I85. However, I don’t know what it’s going to take to get Columbia some snow.
That GFS run was similar to a previous euro run a few cycles ago that got the mountains fairly good. Nice trends for sure and making me feel a bit better.
I got 3-4” in the low to mid 40’s one year ??
I know. I didn't mean that as a slight against you. Just dry humor. Sorry.
40 is workable at this range.
We have to turn this string of +AO winters around. That is key, IMO.
This is the time frame we need to see an arctic high
Perfect track just no damn cold air around. What makes it worse is the GFS has been trending away from a good solution as well.
packfan98
Moderator
Pretty colors at least. Too bad the SER is stout. Is there any chance we can beat it back? It's definitely happened before.
Stormlover
Member
Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
·
4h
Grand Planetary wave alignment forecasted by Euro ensembles has similaritis to the week of the Legendary March 1993, displaced a bit west Similar more often than not tho, does not produce the same, but pattern certainly looks more wintery than recent weeks.
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D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
For a degreed met, he sure acts like the worlds biggest weenie, always swinging for the fences and seeing ghosts of past storms in every pattern.
Sorry, just had to get that off my chest.
In other news, the CMC cuts our day 8-9 storm.
Yeah, that SE ridge keeps most of the cold west of the Appalachians out to day 16. One thing is apparent, we wont go into this spring in a drought:
In some respects yes but with 84hr snowfall? No, that was my point with the nam'd comment it's easy to get excited but consistency is key imho
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Very true, definitely could be a lot worse, going into spring without any snow and in a drought would be horrible
Stormlover
Member
Do you have a problem with this, this is what he was talking about
The CMC was interesting especially with that hp up north
tennessee storm
Member
Sounds like jb is getting desperate...
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
I’m just saying he always finds a way to connect any pattern to the big dogs of the past, seemingly forgetting that there’s a reason why those type of storms happen infrequently. He just loses all credibility when he consistent does this. But that’s my opinion.
My fears on the Feb 7 timeframe have already materialized..and for that reason, I’m out #WAR
Stormlover
Member
apparently you didn't read his words, he said the same thing rarely happens, but it was the best look we've had...that's all
His own words:Similar more often than not tho, does not produce the same, but pattern certainly looks more wintery than recent weeks.
Unless we see another rare flash drought like in Fall 2019. Yes, we can drought very quickly.
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
When it comes to weather forecasting two things are always guaranteed 1.JB will always swing for the fences and over hype 2. Reed Timmer will say every tornado is a large violent wedge.