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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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WXinCanton said:
Remember when this was an epic deep south snowstorm LOL

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Storms always end up way NW unless it's a coastal you need to come NW

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BIG FROSTY said:
Maybe you guys and gals can score in the eastern Piedmont's to the coastal areas next week!
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Maybe just maybe you get your 15 ice pellets and maybe just maybe this coastal throws me 15 flakes, call it a win and move on to spring

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whatalife said:
Just as dead as winter will be after next week...Got to love your transient cold pattern change...Day 10-15 on the Euro look wonder...
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Cold West warm east. Seems to be the theme every winter
 
WXinCanton said:
We could use a little less rain down here. Courses are pretty muddy with the dormant grass. Yes I'm be picky with my 1st world problems, lol
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BIG FROSTY said:
Sounds good to me! Hoping I can recover enough by Spring from the back surgery I had in late October to get back out and play?
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Yes. The courses where I play are almost to waterlogged to play on.


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KyloG said:
Keep hoping we see some positive changes but this ain’t it. Right over the pole with low heights over Alaska. It’s not a super torch so we got that...seasonal, especially with the rain.

It’s a beaut Clark.

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But that Canadian blocking though.....;)
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
And that's not a month that has been great recently. Might be time to kick the can to 20-21
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6 straight crappy winters in a row for me. Not setting records yet but getting close. My early guess is next year will suck as well but just not as bad. I’ll say 21-22 it switches. Just a guess.



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NoSnowATL said:
6 straight crappy winters in a row for me. Not setting records yet but getting close. My early guess is next year will suck as well but just not as bad. I’ll say 21-22 it switches. Just a guess.



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The AMO going cold should help by then.


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It's amazing that models nail an awful pattern 15 days out but let a cold pattern show in the long range it always fails. Theres forces unknown the last few years to keep a cold west warm east. It just doesn't make sense.

Personally I think the NAO is to blame. We simply can't lock in a trough in the east and it have staying power without it. Even a -EPO is usually transient like 13-14 where it still averaged AN.

Most say the NAO isn't predictable beyond two weeks and constantly changes. No way you can convince me that almost 10 years without it in winter is just a coincidence and bad luck. There is something causing it and anyone who can find it out has just cracked the code on why we've been in such a disaster pattern for years now.
 
WxWatch said:
Nope, not going with the warm Euro or EPS. Going with GEFS and CFS. If the Euro and EPS come back on board, then of course I would include them.

I'm also going with the GEPS. All of these 3 models agree, showing cold by the last week this month into February.

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GEPS ? Isn't that the most cold biased of them all. Look man , if your wishcasting it say it but if your model hugging favorite models and ignoring the ones that don’t look like you want and trying to pass it off as a forecast then that’s disingenuous and no better than joe bastardi.


In other news enjoy the upcoming cold shot because while warmth is supported afterwards. Do we really know ? I’m probably the only one here who loved last weeks warmth . Almost made 5 straight nights above 60 in January at RDU. Had it not been for Wednesday morning breaking the streak we would have made it!
 
Help me understand something because you guys and gals (all of you) know more than me here. Day 10-15 cold and stormy, toss it because it’s fantasy land. Day 10-15 heat dome book it as gospel truth. I know we have been literally burned lately but it just seems inconsistent to me unless we are just being cynical.
 
Roswellian said:
Help me understand something because you guys and gals (all of you) know more than me here. Day 10-15 cold and stormy, toss it because it’s fantasy land. Day 10-15 heat dome book it as gospel truth. I know we have been literally burned lately but it just seems inconsistent to me unless we are just being cynical.
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It’s hard to get cold without a source near by. I also check the MJO. The PV would help too if if actually stayed on our side of the planet for a while. That’s my way of thinking.


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