Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

[Myfrotho704_]

Just took a peak at the Gfs ensembles for wave two ... good lord much more agreement there that a large scale system could be effecting the south east ... that looks like it could be the fun one we are going to be heavily tracking in the next week ... the big take away is the amount of support for a large system at the same time period grew substantially I would say

I wouldn’t call it a storm/large scale system yet, there’s still a big spread in timing so it’s just storms corresponding to the better pattern on ENS member ATM, there’s definitely a better pattern coming up tho, if there’s one signal, it’s a signal of CAD

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Interesting no one stayed up for the euro ... she slapped some nasty nasty .... GREATNESS tonight good lord she was headed for glory ... I’m going to post the last frame .. y’all tell me what deliciousness you see

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I just peaked at the EPS as well on tidbits and it supports large amount of blocking in the Arctic by hour 240 .. talk about our friend -NAO .. if we didn’t think we’d see her this winter we’d be dashingly wrong

And also the beautiful +PNA ridge that pops is just ideal

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Not far off for an upslope freezing rain/drizzle earlier Saturday than what is shown..can see Georgia/SC trying to throw out some cold rain but it disappears before entering the Charlotte metro. This does not include precip from the west approaching.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Temp wise would support northern piedmont counties north of Winston, foothills/mtns. But upslope could trend it cooler with the right timing.

 

[ATLwxfan]

Ugly GFS run this AM. Minimal cold. Must be a blip.


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[NickyBGuarantee]

Ugly GFS run this AM. Minimal cold. Must be a blip.


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Now is an important time to look at the ensembles .. and if you look at the 06z GEFS ensembles .. you’d see why the operational is a blip for sure

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Now is an important time to look at the ensembles .. and if you look at the 06z GEFS ensembles .. you’d see why the operational is a blip for sure

Some of those members bring a lot of snow to the southeast. Still some meh members mixed in.

 

[KyloG]

My goodness

 

[Metwannabe]

There's a little noise with the "first potential" around D8-9. But then the mean is beautiful around D10 and especially through the end of the run. Mountains and NW Piedmont of NC approaching 8 inches. Of course this shows snow and ice so obviously not all snow.

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[packfan98]

Hints of -NAO blocking showing up. Even if it's temporary, it could aid in a great, SLOW moving storm track...

 

[Stormdoc]

Pretty impressive cold for a smoothed out ensemble mean

 

[Mitch West]

Legitimate tornado threat last night for Dallas Fort Worth area, this morning there is snow & sleet just NW of the city. Crazy stuff.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

We keep waiting for the Rug to be pulled but I’ll be honest ... it looks like we’re stapling the rug to the ground

 

[Metwannabe]

Legitimate tornado threat last night for Dallas Fort Worth area, this morning there is snow & sleet just NW of the city. Crazy stuff.

Yep were several areas last night under a tornado watch and winter storm warning, dynamic system

 

[KyloG]

EPS trend for day 10 .

 

[Ollie Williams]

Interestingly enough we saw another high 06z GEFS model run. (Not as high as 06z yesterday though)

The Euro also had a large Jump in the Mean. Some big dogs mixed in

 

[Stormdoc]

EPS trend for day 10 .

View attachment 30254

Wow gotta like that look. Nice ridge bridge over the top from Europe, through Greenland and Northwest territories and then down the west coast. If correct that is $$$

 

[Storm5]

Finally some agreement

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[KyloG]

One difference between the EPS/GEFS is the GEFS has a much stronger Npac low as seen above in Storms post. Will be interesting to see how that unfolds with the EPS.

Retrogression of west coast trough