You're gonna need more than that to forestall the march of the rain/snow line. It's coming.We've got 3 degrees of wiggle room!
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You're gonna need more than that to forestall the march of the rain/snow line. It's coming.We've got 3 degrees of wiggle room!
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Nah winter is over anywayYou're gonna need more than that to forestall the march of the rain/snow line. It's coming.
Things are looking up, but be wary of the rug pullI knew things would turn around just as they are now ... you can’t simply write off winter before it’s even begun! Now look at us we’re all just kids in a candy shop every new model cycle .. oh what fun ???
I don't think a rug pull is coming for a pattern shift. Too much agreement. But it's still up for debate how long it lasts and whether it'll hold long enough to get the ultimate goal of a storm.Things are looking up, but be wary of the rug pull
"We're all just kids in a candy shop every new model cycle." That's what I'm saying, all the "noise" we see is mostly in the mid to long range that ends up turning out to be nothing most of the time. Let's get a winter storm in a 7 day window that shows up on every single run (that has solid ensemble support) and we'll be in that "candy shop" ready for business. We're literally stepping on our tippy toes waiting for that "potential."I knew things would turn around just as they are now ... you can’t simply write off winter before it’s even begun! Now look at us we’re all just kids in a candy shop every new model cycle .. oh what fun
Makes you wonder...last 2 years we went though low amp 7-8-1-2 and high 7-8-1-2 for Jan into Feb which resulted in the same pattern GEFS keeps spitting out. Things that make you go hmmm...
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99% of the time it doesn’t work that way. Also, I’m just trying to make sure if you think winter is still over or not?"We're all just kids in a candy shop every new model cycle." That's what I'm saying, all the "noise" we see is mostly in the mid to long range that ends up turning out to be nothing most of the time. Let's get a winter storm in a 7 day window that shows up on every single run (that has solid ensemble support) and we'll be in that "candy shop" ready for business. We're literally stepping on our tippy toes waiting for that "potential."
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Famous last words lol. No, I basically agree with everything you said. The amount of staying power is where the rug could get yanked.I don't think a rug pull is coming for a pattern shift. Too much agreement. But it's still up for debate how long it lasts and whether it'll hold long enough to get the ultimate goal of a storm.
Let’s be honest though even if the super favorable pattern doesn’t stay we should be having to deal with the atrocities we’ve had to endure the past weeks and week to come .. we should be okay after thisFamous last words lol. No, I basically agree with everything you said. The amount of staying power is where the rug could get yanked.
I honestly would hate to say winter is over for good for the rest of this season. Is it over for now? Yes, imo it is, 60s and 70s for highs down my way (Northeast of ATL) through mid month. If the pattern doesn't change into a favorable colder pattern by mid February, winter would but cut short. As I see it as of now, just some cold shots with some minor frozen precipitation outside of the mountains through late month into early February. Who knows how February is going to shape up at this point. I hate being sarcastic and negative and I'm normally not this way. But the fact is, soon as we get into January the pattern has to go into a train wreck and that's what gave me a "beating" this winter.This is the same pattern (roughly speaking) that shows up when you look at points in the winter where we had a strong PV & phase 6-7 MJO pulse (via Jason Furtado).
99% of the time it doesn’t work that way. Also, I’m just trying to make sure if you think winter is still over or not?
So I get it. Clear pattern change and blah blah blah and don’t get caught up in the details but I don’t see all that much love for AL and GA (I-20 folks) yet.
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The pattern heading into January was an inflamed shot through the warm phases and it looks like we will be far away from them for this upcoming pattern change .. I think that along with overwhelming support in ensembles and now operational runs should be enough to get anyone on this board excited for what’s to come .. don’t see a reason for this type of negativity reallyI honestly would hate to say winter is over for good for the rest of this season. Is it over for now? Yes, imo it is, 60s and 70s for highs down my way (Northeast of ATL) through mid month. If the pattern doesn't change into a favorable colder pattern by mid February, winter would but cut short. As I see it as of now, just some cold shots with some minor frozen precipitation outside of the mountains through late month into early February. Who knows how February is going to shape up at this point. I hate being sarcastic and negative and I'm normally not this way. But the fact is, soon as we get into January the pattern has to go into a train wreck and that's what gave me a "beating" this winter.
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