tennessee storm
Member
I love a good severe weather discussion... interesting thoughts here.
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
What you basically said was the subtropical jet stream advects the EML
"the subtropical jet can also flood mid-level moist air which really hurts the EML"
This is obviously not true at all because the subtropical jet is exclusively in the upper troposphere and in geostrophic balance, thus the subtropical jet is not advecting anything. Then you later said you were actually referring to waves in the subtropical jet and not the subtropical jet itself. (facepalm).
It's honestly not my fault that you clearly messed up and get butthurt every time I point out this obviously flaw in your line of rationale instead of admitting you were wrong & moving on.
This last bold statement is key because it gets right to the heart of my previous responses to you, the EML is not a necessary prerequisite for severe weather or even a large outbreak in the SE US, as you were previously hinting at, other limiting factors such as CAPE are more critical at this time of the year.
tennessee storm
Member
we are all weather enthusiasts... if we wasn't... we wouldn't be on the forum have great discussions which I really enjoy... but this lack of interesting weather is starting to get under our skins.... lol
Wait I can't defend my butt without it being deleted? I call foul. Haha
ForsythSnow
Moderator
It's more of "That's enough of this in this thread", but if you want to defend yourself do so in a non-month discussion thread and keep it non-personal. We had enough of that last year.
I'm not defending myself, but my backside. How dare someone say it is hurt when it actually doesnt, but ok I'll make sure I'll whine about it in the whiney thread next time.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
There's a reason why I deleted two posts at once. I'm not saying you defending yourself was wrong. The way webber was posting was wrong as well saying you were butthurt. There's a line between civil discussion and name calling that I saw was crossed and both of you crossed it.
Hey man, it's ok and I understand. The last post to you was in jest. Even the post to Web about me being butthurt and needing therapy was in jest as well. People can believe what they want, but I'm not getting butthurt over anything on the internet anymore, even if Metwannbe changed my avatar to his face.
Ok that may cross the line....
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
EPS is definitely picking up on something ~January 7-10th.
Easy to see why there are a decent number of members showing a storm when you have a pattern like this being modeled at day 9 coupled w/ an active subtropical jet. Remains to be seen how large of a window we're gonna have to work w/ here, and it's possible we may quickly devolve into a -PNA by Jan 10th if our ACWB in the NE Pacific is suppressed &/or weaker.
Fwiw, also worth mentioning the GFS is also hinting at a storm in roughly the same timeframe.
Point is, the pattern appears to be significantly more favorable than normal around January 6-10th ish for wintry weather in the SE US & climatologically speaking, this is also the coldest part of the winter for most on the board. We just need to trend in the right direction w/ individual waves over the coming week to allow for an actual threat to materialize.
Easy to see why there are a decent number of members showing a storm when you have a pattern like this being modeled at day 9 coupled w/ an active subtropical jet. Remains to be seen how large of a window we're gonna have to work w/ here, and it's possible we may quickly devolve into a -PNA by Jan 10th if our ACWB in the NE Pacific is suppressed &/or weaker.
Fwiw, also worth mentioning the GFS is also hinting at a storm in roughly the same timeframe.
Point is, the pattern appears to be significantly more favorable than normal around January 6-10th ish for wintry weather in the SE US & climatologically speaking, this is also the coldest part of the winter for most on the board. We just need to trend in the right direction w/ individual waves over the coming week to allow for an actual threat to materialize.
NoSnowATL
Member
Hey Webb, do you think this is the only threat for January since the MJO is looking to head towards 4,5,6? This looks like a small window before we go unfavorably for a few weeks.
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?
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I thought I could bare it, but in the end that may set me over the edge.
Sorry just being honest.
I actually like the look of the D7+ right now (ie last day or 2 of model runs). I think that could leave us potentially cold enough, but also have energy drop down the Rockies and scoot SE to allow something to happen. Looks like there could be that fine line with the STJ and the SER where we could have a parade of storms potentially.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Subseasonal tropical forcing is being predominated by faster moving Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves, persistence of a particular forcing regime will be limited going forward which also means we're going to get a ton of different looks in the coming weeks and probably will be less likely to contend w/ more classical, slower moving MJO. Even if one were to materialize, the +ENSO lean globally favors faster MJO propagation due to stronger advection by the background flow.
Another CCKW is forecast to reach the West-central Pacific roughly in/around late January.
I was just confused how I got drug into this with the changing of an avatar to my face, that's what I was wondering??
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Well it's a long warped story that included posting while trying not to burn the eggs. Not a recipe of good posting and I promise I'll do better.
Pretty rare to see the arctic modeled BN
Jon
Member
Yep.
This is also true for most teleconnections.
Looking at a EPO or NAO graph can only tell you so much, even if it says it’s going negative. You have to look at the 500mb look and see the location of the ++anomalies and find out why the model is classifying it as a -NAO or -EPO. Sometimes it can be classified as a -NAO and not matter for our weather. Same for -AO, not all are created equal. Hell even +PNA, we can get a super strong ++PNA but if it’s not technically in the right place we don’t benefit.
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Lol the GFS trying to bring cold and flurries in on the 5th.
Jon
Member
EPS and GEFS with widespread negative 850mb anomalies 10-11 days after Dec 27 when we were in MJO Phase 7. Lines up perfectly with the RMM Phase 7 lagged 850mb temp composites (lag 2,3) and Baxter et al. research. The research actually notes Central AND eastern cold 850s which is exactly what we’re to experience.
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At least it's in the 7 day window. If that verifies, that's a win, better than no snow!Lol the GFS trying to bring cold and flurries in on the 5th.
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Certainly looks like we are headed toward a day or 2 where we struggle through the 30s around here. May pull out a mid teens low tooEPS and GEFS with widespread negative 850mb anomalies 10-11 days after Dec 27 when we were in MJO Phase 7. Lines up perfectly with the RMM Phase 7 lagged 850mb temp composites (lag 2,3) and Baxter et al. research. The research actually notes Central AND eastern cold 850s which is exactly what we’re to experience.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A -EPO & a -NAO during a NINO February is usually game, set, match for cold around here however the placement of that ridge was suppressed & we were left w/ a very warm pattern.
We technically didn't get shutout but still very meh.
CFS weekly is solid for the last week of January into February. Welp just looked and it rolls a decent mjo through 7-2, probably not going to work out
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A significant piece of the TPV starts to drop down towards the Baffin Bay by day 8-9 on the GFS. The evolution of the TPV is still the biggest wildcard the next few weeks and its predictability is severely limited. Just a week or so ago, it appeared that the TPV would park over Alaska, instead it’s going to end up going over Greenland
Pretty impressive to see how the gfs is struggling in the extended. I mean even for the gfs these are some wild run to run changes
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I had felt and said that the SE as a whole would be lucky to average N as opposed to AN normal for 1/1-15 thanks to transitory cold shots. The bias corrected model consensus is telling me to stick with this idea with the best chance for AN in the deep SE thanks to more influence from SER in the means. Keep in mind that model consensus has had a lot of trouble for quite awhile with not having the SER strong enough in the medium range. And with -AAM, that risk is very much in play imo.
Consistent with this, I would be surprised if my area and nearby isn’t AN for 1/1-15 even if the deep SE is able to get several days of BN within.
Consistent with this, I would be surprised if my area and nearby isn’t AN for 1/1-15 even if the deep SE is able to get several days of BN within.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The one constant between all those runs is a huge ridge over the N Pacific and Alaska, details on this ridge truly matter and mean all the difference between an early start to spring or a monster arctic outbreak with widespread 10s & 20s in the SE US. I personally don’t see much room for anything in between.Pretty impressive to see how the gfs is struggling in the extended. I mean even for the gfs these are some wild run to run changes
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I’d love to see that -AO verify. I wonder if we could get a -EPO and -AO to link up if it would encourage the +PNA we need? It seems the one and only thing the GFS can hold onto from run to run is a ridge in the east and a trough in the west. SmhPretty impressive to see how the gfs is struggling in the extended. I mean even for the gfs these are some wild run to run changes
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
With the return of the cold blast on the GFS the GEFS returns to some garbage solutions again like snow in Tampa.
Related to my last post, below is the 1-15 day period per the 12Z GEFS without correction for cold bias. Of course, this includes a very warm first 2 days but the end looks mild, too. So, I don’t think moving this forward 2 days would cool it much. And again, this is not bias corrected. The best shot at solid cold is within 1/6-9 and it does look to get pretty cold for the bulk of that period. So, the good news is that the bulk of the SE shouldn’t be totally shut out of a nice cold period within 1/1-15, thus likely saving us from a torch in the means for 1/1-15:
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Yeah it's really going to be feast or famine here with that much amplification of the Pacific.
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LovingGulfLows
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Am i the only one surprised more isn't showing up here with a jet streak like this on hour 150 on the GFS?
Its close but the trough is still too positive to get anything going. Put a little more energy into the base of the trough, slow it down, tilt it neutral and you get somethingAm i the only one surprised more isn't showing up here with a jet streak like this on hour 150 on the GFS?
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
If it was much more negative at that point I'd like it, but since it's too positive it won't do much. It's impressive still to see that intensity.Am i the only one surprised more isn't showing up here with a jet streak like this on hour 150 on the GFS?
You can actually see the energy diving in from the plains then moving off the east coast make an attempt. The kicker moving in along the west coast keeps things moving and the energy is just strong out enough so the trough stays mehIts close but the trough is still too positive to get anything going. Put a little more energy into the base of the trough, slow it down, tilt it neutral and you get something
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Look at this actual good trend on the gefs, building towards a +PNA, this may be something to watch for wintry wx other than cold 
Get the Euro to dig more positively and it may get interesting. Some snow across W NC this run
