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Pattern Microwave March

Webber, what are your thoughts on upcoming March? Could we pull the rabbit out of the hat for possible winter event? Or move right into spring? Generally speaking for the Southeast.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol, I would have to say that our window may be small, but there is a little hope left. If the Euro came on board with what the GFS is showing, maybe we could get excited, but seeing all these fantasy storms that the GFS hasn't put out all winter has to excite some. Shoot, it may even bring Brick out.
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We essentially have until ~25th or so before our climatology becomes extremely unfavorable (or more so than it already seems to be). Mid march isn't great but is certainly doable. We definitely need to come up w/ a storm in a hurry because we're running short on time (& patience).
 
SnowHusky said:
I blocked him, so a private thread wouldn't do any good. Some people need to learn how to stop trying to run the show, trying to be the "big boss". Also, I like to earn leadership, not just here, it could be anywhere. And when someone runs me over, I don't appreciate that. I run a Facebook weather page, I'm the leader of that page. Someone don't need to think their the big show when I have leadership of my own.

Edit: it's over, no more drama, let's go back on topic.

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So you blocked one of, if not THE, most knowledgeable people on this board because he disagrees with what you say, and provides the reasons why? If you really do have a learning disability that hinders you, it would be wise to try to gain as much knowledge from others like Webber....knowledge that you may otherwise have trouble understanding or processing. You could then use that knowledge to better forecast for your followers. Just my 2 cents.....and 2 cents won't buy you anything!
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_49.png
this would be great if it were tomorrow, lol
 
accu35 said:
Webber, what are your thoughts on upcoming March? Could we pull the rabbit out of the hat for possible winter event? Or move right into spring? Generally speaking for the Southeast.
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Similar to what I forecasted several months ago, I still think March as a whole will be above-well above average but not quite as much relative to average as February (which isn't saying a lot). I'm starting to become a little concerned however that the MJO make attempt to make another move back into the Maritime Continent by mid month, both the GFS & ECMWF have issues w/ MJO initialization in the indian ocean, the canonical western hemisphere bias plagues the GEFS suite while the Euro suffers from the barrier effect here wherein it often has trouble bringing the MJO out of the eastern IO (phase 3), through the MT and into the Western Pacific. This could make an already mild pattern even warmer, however, the rapidly changing wavelengths at this time of the year could allow for more transience than normal... It's definitely worth keeping an eye on the evolution of the MJO the next month or so to see if another pulse runs through the West-central Pacific and sets off a large WWB event, that could be enough to begin setting the stage for another El Nino given the already displaced west Pac warm pool. The last MJO event came a little too early climatologically speaking as most of the westerly wind anomalies were confined to the southern hemisphere but was still enough to entice some modest downwelling across the near-equatorial Pacific and completely erase the -SSTAs in the NINO 3.4 region...
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol, I would have to say that our window may be small, but there is a little hope left. If the Euro came on board with what the GFS is showing, maybe we could get excited, but seeing all these fantasy storms that the GFS hasn't put out all winter has to excite some. Shoot, it may even bring Brick out.
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brick knows winter is done... don't buy long range gfs... not happening...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Similar to what I forecasted several months ago, I still think March as a whole will be above-well above average but not quite as much relative to average as February (which isn't saying a lot). I'm starting to become a little concerned however that the MJO make attempt to make another move back into the Maritime Continent by mid month, both the GFS & ECMWF have issues w/ MJO initialization in the indian ocean, the canonical western hemisphere bias plagues the GEFS suite while the Euro suffers from the barrier effect here wherein it often has trouble bringing the MJO out of the eastern IO (phase 3), through the MT and into the Western Pacific. This could make an already mild pattern even warmer, however, the rapidly changing wavelengths at this time of the year could allow for more transience than normal... It's definitely worth keeping an eye on the evolution of the MJO the next month or so to see if another pulse runs through the West-central Pacific and sets off a large WWB event, that could be enough to begin setting the stage for another El Nino given the already displaced west Pac warm pool. The last MJO event came a little too early climatologically speaking as most of the westerly wind anomalies were confined to the southern hemisphere but was still enough to entice some modest downwelling across the near-equatorial Pacific and completely erase the -SSTAs in the NINO 3.4 region...
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When was this amazing severe weather outbreak you were concerned about a week ago? Did I miss it? Or is it still on the way?
 
accu35 said:
Lol, giving how bad our winter sucked this year, I'm ready for severe weather to kick off plus ready for upcoming hurricane season
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You wanna clean up my yard and roof with no power and no A/C for days @ 94º this coming Sept (like this past one 2X)? Just sayin' - snow melts - 'cane's and their effects last a lot longer - well, well after they are gone ...
 
pcbjr said:
You wanna clean up my yard and roof with no power and no A/C for days @ 94º this coming Sept (like this past one 2X)? Just sayin' - snow melts - 'cane's and their effects last a lot longer - well, well after they are gone ...
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Your choice to live in FL.


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DadOfJax said:
So you blocked one of, if not THE, most knowledgeable people on this board because he disagrees with what you say, and provides the reasons why? If you really do have a learning disability that hinders you, it would be wise to try to gain as much knowledge from others like Webber....knowledge that you may otherwise have trouble understanding or processing. You could then use that knowledge to better forecast for your followers. Just my 2 cents.....and 2 cents won't buy you anything!
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I know for sure, I don't have the terminology as Webber does. I didn't block him to the fact that he disagrees with me. I blocked him for now, cause we need a break. I do have enough knowledge to forecast the weather and to come up with predictions, that's what matters. Don't you think if my forecasts wasn't accurate and I don't know what I'm talking about, I'd have less followers on my page then I do now? I do indeed have a weak learning disability, I can imagine things in my mind but sometimes it's hard for me to process it from my mind to words. So, I have to think of ways for me to easily explain it better, this leads to making it sound like I don't know what I'm talking about but I do. You know, one of my favorite quotes from Einstein is, "If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it enough".



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I wouldn't live in Florida , if you paid me 10 million$ and chauffeur me back and forth to work ! It's like a cess pool of humidity and Yankees
 
Tarheel1 said:
I wouldn't live in Florida , if you paid me 10 million$ and chauffeur me back and forth to work ! It's like a cess pool of humidity and Yankees
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You have the wrong part of the state in mind - I REFUSE to go or work south of Miccanopy ... it's NY there ... here it's good ol' south ... with radiational cooling to boot! ;)
 
I found this on a webpage, "Generally speaking, people with learning disabilities are of average or above average intelligence. There often appears to be a gap between the individual’s potential and actual achievement. This is why learning disabilities are referred to as "hidden disabilities": the person looks perfectly “normal” and seems to be a very bright and intelligent person, yet may be unable to demonstrate the skill level expected from someone of a similar age." That exactly explains me. I'm above average with intelligence, I'm very bright with my thinking. It's just hard for me to process things to words sometimes. So, the next time someone gives me a hard time, think again, don't give me a hard time.

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SnowHusky said:
I know for sure, I don't have the terminology as Webber does. I didn't block him to the fact that he disagrees with me. I blocked him for now, cause we need a break. I do have enough knowledge to forecast the weather and to come up with predictions, that's what matters. Don't you think if my forecasts wasn't accurate and I don't know what I'm talking about, I'd have less followers on my page then I do now? I do indeed have a weak learning disability, I can imagine things in my mind but sometimes it's hard for me to process it from my mind to words. So, I have to think of ways for me to easily explain it better, this leads to making it sound like I don't know what I'm talking about but I do. You know, one of my favorite quotes from Einstein is, "If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it enough".



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You can just stop responding if you need a break....blocking the knowledge you may lack isn't wise if you want "your" forecasts to be accurate. I don't know anything about your followers or what you have forecast on your page...but I do know you have talked about a phasing winter storm for the last 2 months in a bunch of "what if" scenarios. I don't think I have seen an actual forecast from you however, so I couldn't judge your accuracy. That is a good quote from Einstein....it could also read, "If you can't explain it enough, simply don't".

To keep it March related, looks like some potential powerful troughs digging down....SVR potential is going to be high the next 6 weeks....maybe longer.
 
Ya Florida actually isn't all northern transplants. It's South Florida that is. The area that is just south of Tallahassee is VERY quiet and the towns that are around remind you of typical southern small towns.
 
SnowHusky said:
I blocked him, so a private thread wouldn't do any good. Some people need to learn how to stop trying to run the show, trying to be the "big boss". Also, I like to earn leadership, not just here, it could be anywhere. And when someone runs me over, I don't appreciate that. I run a Facebook weather page, I'm the leader of that page. Someone don't need to think their the big show when I have leadership of my own.

Edit: it's over, no more drama, let's go back on topic.

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So what? Anyone can run a facebook page. I have one with over 5 times the likes of yours but that doesn't make me something special.
 
Right now, I'm away from my PC, but tonight when I get home, I'm going back to business, meaning I'm still going to post my thoughts here regardless of the criticism. I'll just ignore the criticism comments. I'll block people if I have to as well.

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In the early going, I kind of found Webber's comments on the pattern and weather for this winter both disappointing and harsh (even though I knew the threat of this being the second warm winter in a row was great from what I saw on long range forecasts), but he grew on me. I'd rather have great information than none.

(I've never been on Eastern/American, the only other forums was that other one before it closed...and then reopened, and Accuweather)
 
DadOfJax said:
If you don't want criticism, publicly forecasting weather is NOT for you.
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I get criticism here becuase people can't take honest opinions and thoughts. Weather forecasting is for me, I'm successful at running a weather page and I enjoy forecasting. Even though, I'm sometimes wrong, but like that's a big deal? Even certified meteorologist can be wrong. You don't need a degree to forecast the weather as a hobby. Do something that you enjoy, rather you understand it completely or not, I will always learn more and more about the weather. Even though I do have a weak learning disability, that's not stopping me of what I enjoy, I should get more credit than criticism here.

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The best thing you can do for yourself if you'd like to learn more about the weather and climate is to consistently read scientific papers and journal articles, absorb the material, ask questions to your peers or other experts in the field, take notes and try to apply it to real-life situations. I do almost every day or at least several times a week at the very least. Staring blankly at models won't get you much of anywhere unless you actually understand the raw physics and math behind them and why they behave a specific way... Google scholar is your friend...
 
SnowHusky said:
I get criticism here becuase people can't take honest opinions and thoughts. Weather forecasting is for me, I'm successful at running a weather page and I enjoy forecasting. Even though, I'm sometimes wrong, but like that's a big deal? Even certified meteorologist can be wrong. You don't need a degree to forecast the weather as a hobby. Do something that you enjoy, rather you understand it completely or not, I will always learn more and more about the weather. Even though I do have a weak learning disability, that's not stopping me of what I enjoy, I should get more credit than criticism here.

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I think the thing everyone realizes is, yes, this is a forum for weather. Discussing different opinions and thoughts is what should be happening. I think the problem is stemming from you sometimes overstepping your weather knowledge.. For instance back in January you were constantly talking about phasing when you were looking at a surface map.. Phasing should be talked about at H5. Another example is when people do PBP. For instance on the other board "Grit" is one of my favorite posters that does PBP because he explains every dynamic that is changing/controlling that particular model run. You have a tendency to say "high pressure is in different spot and low pressure is being pushed down". When PBP should be talking about S/Ws, ridges, etc. Everyone on here loves the weather otherwise why would we be on here. You constantly threaten to "leave the board for good" but thankfully you do not because there is no point. You just need to be aware that your knowledge might not be as extensive as you think it is. Feel free to post but don't act like "wishcasting" is forecasting, because it is not even close, and unfortunately I believe most of your content is wishcasting. But hey who on here doesn't do that now and again.
 
SnowHusky said:
I get criticism here becuase people can't take honest opinions and thoughts. Weather forecasting is for me, I'm successful at running a weather page and I enjoy forecasting. Even though, I'm sometimes wrong, but like that's a big deal? Even certified meteorologist can be wrong. You don't need a degree to forecast the weather as a hobby. Do something that you enjoy, rather you understand it completely or not, I will always learn more and more about the weather. Even though I do have a weak learning disability, that's not stopping me of what I enjoy, I should get more credit than criticism here.

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please take this as intended......you dont need the approval of anonymous people on the internet do your thing and enjoy...with the understanding forecasting weather = you will be wrong and get criticism......
 
This is the March discussion thread please keep it on topic. If it's off topic debate then go to banter if it's out right personal take it to PM, either way in this thread please discuss March WEATHER. We're trying to have a laid back atmosphere but damn it's getting difficult.

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