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Pattern Scorchtember

My attention is gonna be up in here now as we are seeing some consistent model runs now on the cool down. Gfs has been showing this regularly for a while now and I'm ready. Ready for the cold crisp nights standing by the fire with family and friends.
 
The 12z GFS is awful. Warmer and very dry for most of us through day 16. This fall is going to be as dry, or drier, than 2001 and 2016 were.
 
Euro on board for the mid-late week "cooldown"
ecmwf_T850a_us_6.png
 
Who will get the December storm this year. West Georgia was 1st, then the mountains of NC was 2nd. So it has to be Alabama or SC this year.


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JHS said:
The 12z GFS is awful. Warmer and very dry for most of us through day 16. This fall is going to be as dry, or drier, than 2001 and 2016 were.
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Runs will vary back n forth with temps, but there's a strong signal for a cool down. Might not be what we want but its gonna be cooler than what we have now. It's just September, we have a ways to go
 
JHS said:
The 12z GFS is awful. Warmer and very dry for most of us through day 16. This fall is going to be as dry, or drier, than 2001 and 2016 were.
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I’m looking forward to low 80s and 50s later in the week! And September/October, are climatologically our driest months!
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Isnt it so ironic that Sept and Oct are often so dry despite the fact that it's the peak of the tropical season ?
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Only true for inland parts of south check out Wilmington’s rainfall or new bern rainfall averages. Heavily skewed from tropical systems in September . Even raleigh shows a slight September skew upwards . Admittedly October is dry however .
 
SD said:
Reverse this and you have reality

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I dunno about the end of the run but I am going to enjoy the end of this week....

Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Northeast wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 59.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 76.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 78.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 58.
 
Downeastnc said:
I dunno about the end of the run but I am going to enjoy the end of this week....

Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Northeast wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 59.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 76.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 78.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 58.
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Going to be walking outside like

tenor.gif
 
Dew points in the 40s and lows in the mid 50s late this week, now we are talking! Couldn't care less about the 380+hr runs when we have an amazing end of week coming.
 
@Tarheel1 we have northerners bitching and complaining in the Simpsonville Residents Facebook group about an “Air Quality Alert” lmao Tell em they ain’t seen nothing yet ?
 
If you love the SER, she loves you right back, per the 12z GFS. Ensemble is totally not interested in cooling things down.


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ATLwxfan said:
If you love the SER, she loves you right back, per the 12z GFS. Ensemble is totally not interested in cooling things down.


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Huh? GFS and GEFS is magnitudes better than current in the 192hr-300hr range. After which the the SE flexes. Not that I put any trust in the former however.
 
Arcc said:
Huh? GFS and GEFS is magnitudes better than current in the 192hr-300hr range. After which the the SE flexes. Not that I put any trust in the former however.
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Lots of run to run variability but this run gives GA a slight cool down though mostly from CAD before. A lot will change obviously. At least the 90’s are gone.


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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
@Tarheel1 we have northerners bitching and complaining in the Simpsonville Residents Facebook group about an “Air Quality Alert” lmao Tell em they ain’t seen nothing yet ?
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Them Yankees don’t understand! And they think fall starts in October!????
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
@Tarheel1 we have northerners bitching and complaining in the Simpsonville Residents Facebook group about an “Air Quality Alert” lmao Tell em they ain’t seen nothing yet ?
Click to expand...
I think this rainless streak , is about to be biblical! We easily get 2-3 week dry stretches, just like this summer, but 16 days, plus the last few in August, and no legitimate chances the next 10-15 days, we are looking at 33+ days likely or more, without a drop!! That’s ridiculous for even us!
 
Tarheel1 said:
I think this rainless streak , is about to be biblical! We easily get 2-3 week dry stretches, just like this summer, but 16 days, plus the last few in August, and no legitimate chances the next 10-15 days, we are looking at 33+ days likely or more, without a drop!! That’s ridiculous for even us!
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Reminds me of 2001 when it didnt rain for like 2 months straight from September to November !
 
We are needing rain here in the NW part of GA where I live. In 2016 we experienced conditions similar to this and went a long time with out rain. I had planted a food plot at my hunting land in early September that year and it went 72 days before it got any rain on it. This part of the state is just the pit of hell.

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