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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

This is the GFS simulated satellite for THU offshore of Charleston... focus on the eyewall actually onshore woth a huge eye
 

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Stormsfury said:
This is the GFS simulated satellite for THU offshore of Charleston... focus on the eyewall actually onshore woth a huge eye
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High tide is at 2:00 pm.......not good.
Hard to tell but I think all the counties currently with evac orders are covered here.
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 78.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES
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GaWx said:
The Euro has done well imo. It was the first model to show that long stall on runs a number of days ago that some wouldn't believe. Once it had the stall, every run afterward had it. It not getting kudos would be ridiculous and ignoring reality. OTOH, the UKMET had some awful runs into the GOM.
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The best way to compare it from a scientific/statistical standpoint is the below chart. Past 48 hours the Euro/UK are both quite close in accuracy and better than the other models by far. Here's a link if you'd like to look at some other error/bias charts.

1567534010340.png
 
UK/Euro/GFS are all on top of each other, give or take 20 miles. The 12z Euro just hugs the coastline all the way up, never makes landfall that I can see. Reminds me of Matthew track.

Correction: Makes landfall over MHX. This run is slower to, up the coast.
 
Dam, the 12Z Euro is kind of worrying me for even here. It comes within 75 miles of SAV now and is getting closer to a Matthew type track. Matthew was about 35 miles from SAV. It had been as much as 150 miles away yesterday. I didn't expect this shift and hope it goes back.

Was hoping I wouldn't have to use my well inland hotel reservations. Now my hope is lowered somewhat.

I wonder if his weakening has brought the steering so low that it has gained a sig westerly component vs the higher steering layers.
 
GaWx said:
Dam, the 12Z Euro is kind of worrying me for even here. It comes within 75 miles of SAV now and is getting closer to a Matthew type track. Matthew was about 35 miles from SAV. It had been as much as 150 miles away yesterday. I didn't expect this shift and hope it goes back.

Was hoping I wouldn't have to use my well inland hotel reservations. Now my hope is lowered somewhat.
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Notice also how the heaviest rainfall are also translating over to the north and western side of Dorian on all the guidance as well. Bodes grim for increased rain and Wind threats all along the coasts...
 
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KyloG said:
UK/Euro/GFS are all on top of each other, give or take 20 miles. The 12z Euro just hugs the coastline all the way up, never makes landfall that I can see. Reminds me of Matthew track.

Correction: Makes landfall over MHX. This run is slower to, up the coast.
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Yep all models have trended slower...
 
Is there a reliable source of information coming out of the bahamas? The more I think about it, the more my stomach turns. They had category 4+ winds on Grand Bahama for over 24 hours.
 
GaWx said:
Dam, the 12Z Euro is kind of worrying me for even here. It comes within 75 miles of SAV now and is getting closer to a Matthew type track. Matthew was about 35 miles from SAV. It had been as much as 150 miles away yesterday. I didn't expect this shift and hope it goes back.

Was hoping I wouldn't have to use my well inland hotel reservations. Now my hope is lowered somewhat.

I wonder if his weakening has brought the steering so low that it has gained a sig westerly component vs the higher steering layers.
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Yeah yesterday's Euro never had Dorian crossing 80W... this run a much different story, is getting close Larry, one model run or a trend?

1567535096599.png
 
Yeah I was just pointing out that it’s not changing the track as there’s another trough coming down keeping the ridge from building back.


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Stormsfury said:
Notice also how the heaviest rainfall are also translating over to the north and western side of Dorian on all the guidance as well. Bodes grim for increased rain and Win threats all along the coasts...
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Liked for you sharing the info not for liking what it is showing. I see what you're saying. I'm about 15 miles inland and yesterday's 18Z and today's 0Z Euro had only 2.5" of rain here. The 6Z had 3" and this 12Z run suddenly has 9"!
Earlier Euro runs had only TD type winds. But the 12Z run has solid TS force winds. Not a good trend.
 
12z EURO didn't shift west any vis the North Carolina coast. Exact same distance just offshore. Very interesting considering it starts much more westward when it makes the turn up the coast.
 
GaWx said:
Liked for you sharing the info not for liking what it is showing. I see what you're saying. I'm about 15 miles inland and yesterday's 18Z and today's 0Z Euro had only 2.5" of rain here. The 6Z had 3" and this 12Z run suddenly has 9"!
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Haven't seen EURO rainfall but GFS on the 12z was greatly ramped up in excess of 10" now across the Tri-County of SC. I believe this is exactly what Levi Cowan talked about last night with the transition occurring due to a North flux bringing the worst weather conditions on the north and Western side of the cyclone.
 
Seeing the satellite images with street overlay on is just wow. The ocean has swallowed sections of the Bahamas.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Looks like it hits the OBX dead on.
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Really just brushes it, of course depending on the size of the eye as too how far west the western eyewall would be. Actually was further west early but may have shifted slightly east along the NC coast.

1567536067411.png
 
So have all the latest model runs today shown a landfall somewhere in NC?
 
Because of the geographic advantage of GA vs most of SC, they put GA only in a TS warning whereas to the north and south it is an H warning. If this 12Z Euro trend continues, they may very put GA in an H warning. GA is in a H watch now.
 
If you guys check out TWC and Jim's live shots.. you'd think the hurricane is coming on shore soon... with all the dry air and how far the circulation is off shore..

What. the.
 
Looks to me like the shift west early was due in part to a tad stronger WAR but then it starts breaking it down fairly quick, it that ridge is just a mb or 2 stronger or holds on a few more hours that turn could be delayed or less pronounced. We will be watching that turn like we were for it to put on the brakes in the Bahamas.
 
Tomorrow is going to be very stressful watching to see when Dorian starts to make that turn.
 
GaWx said:
Because of the geographic advantage of GA vs most of SC, they put GA only in a TS warning whereas to the north and south it is an H warning. If this 12Z Euro trend continues, they may very put GA in an H warning. GA is in a H watch now.
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No. ;)
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 78.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES
Click to expand...
 
For anyone evacuating, pay attention to Crankys last tweet. Stay alert on another possible long track cyclone possibly in the same general area going to the South-East. Stay weather aware while your gone and restock on any hurricane supplies that further west inland locations may have available and take them back to the coast when it’s safe.
 
Henry2326 said:
Last 3 runs....that's what I meant about my question "is the door closing".


View attachment 23007
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All it has to do is hit cape fear on NNE heading versus scraping the capes and that makes the biggest difference for weather from Raleigh to the east. I'm in TS watches with hurricane watches one county east so 25 to 30 miles one way or the other is a big thing for us.
 
Shaggy said:
All it has to do is hit cape fear on NNE heading versus scraping the capes and that makes the biggest difference for weather from Raleigh to the east. I'm in TS watches with hurricane watches one county east so 25 to 30 miles one way or the other is a big thing for us.
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Feel your angst ... it's been 25 - 50 miles for days ... and still is ... o_O
 
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