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Pattern July

GaWx said:
The GEFS suggests the -NAO will go at least through 7/16, which would make it a whopping 81 days straight with no end yet in sight! As a result, we're on track for one of the most, if not THE most, -NAO for May-July averaged out. These years since 1950 also had a strong -NAO for May-July averaged out: 1958, 1993, 1998, 2008, 2012, and 2016.

How did May-Jul temperatures average for these 6 winters, combined? Warm in the SE

View attachment 20744

How were the subsequent winter temperatures in the SE?

1958: normal
1993: cold
1998: warm
2008: normal
2012: warm
2016: warm

So, fwiw, these 6 winters favor warmth over cold. This is encouraging for my forecast for still another mild SER dominated winter coming up.
How did DJF temperatures average for these 6 winters, combined? Warm in the SE

View attachment 20745

Conclusion: having this current very long-lived -NAO doesn't at all favor a cold winter upcoming and to the contrary favors warmth. So, don't be fooled. The SER is liable to stick around for another winter. But I'm hopeful for a change for 2020-21.
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The good news is the 2020-21 winter will probably have the trough in the east, blocking, _NAO, etc, only for all the cold air to be in Europe, leaving us with 40s and rain.
 
cd2play said:
The good news is the 2020-21 winter will probably have the trough in the east, blocking, _NAO, etc, only for all the cold air to be in Europe, leaving us with 40s and rain.
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That sir, if extended for say 10 weeks, and if IMBY, would be a coup ... ;)
 
btw ... gonna probably delete this in 5 minutes (if I remember to) since I hate IMBY ... but hell yes ... it is raining ... on with the show
 
GaWx said:
The GEFS suggests the -NAO will go at least through 7/16, which would make it a whopping 81 days straight with no end yet in sight! As a result, we're on track for one of the most, if not THE most, -NAO since 1950 for May-July averaged out. These years since 1950 also had a strong -NAO for May-July averaged out: 1958, 1993, 1998, 2008, 2012, and 2016.

How did May-Jul temperatures average for these 6 winters, combined? Warm in the SE. A -NAO then correlates to a warm SE.

View attachment 20744

How were the subsequent winter temperatures in the SE?

1958: normal
1993: cold
1998: warm
2008: normal
2012: warm
2016: warm

So, fwiw, these 6 winters favor warmth over cold. This is encouraging for my forecast for still another mild SER dominated winter coming up.
How did DJF temperatures average for these 6 winters, combined? Warm in the SE

View attachment 20745

Conclusion: having this current very long-lived -NAO doesn't at all favor a cold winter upcoming and to the contrary favors warmth. So, don't be fooled. The SER is liable to stick around for another winter. But I'm hopeful for a change for 2020-21.
Click to expand...
Maybe in this case the analogs will end up being useless like they are when they point to a cold winter.
 
Interesting observation today as I left work and headed home during peak heating. The temperatures throughout the city were 100F on my car thermometer but as soon as I escaped the city limits the temperature quickly dropped 2F within a half mile and another 1F a few miles later. Then by the time I got home, out in the country surrounded by fields and trees, the temperature dropped a few more degrees as I entered the more rural areas. Total difference? It was 100F in Greenville (car thermometer) and 94F at my house. Heat island effect in full force no doubt and it’s amazing to see how much urbanization has warmed things within city limits.
 
SD said:
Yeah I might have been a little over zealous I was thinking a little more activity along the sea breeze and with the Piedmont trough. Maybe things will get going later in the evening

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Here comes the development

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Definitely was a hot day, but not so bad under the shade, lost a bass that broke 10 pound test, biggest thing I ever seen, probably a 9-10 pounder and that thing was probably as big as my dog, or like around 23-26 inches, that area I fish at had unusually big LM bass and channel/blue cats, I’m actually upset right now and my grandpa said that was probably way bigger than his PB bass
 
snowlover91 said:
Interesting observation today as I left work and headed home during peak heating. The temperatures throughout the city were 100F on my car thermometer but as soon as I escaped the city limits the temperature quickly dropped 2F within a half mile and another 1F a few miles later. Then by the time I got home, out in the country surrounded by fields and trees, the temperature dropped a few more degrees as I entered the more rural areas. Total difference? It was 100F in Greenville (car thermometer) and 94F at my house. Heat island effect in full force no doubt and it’s amazing to see how much urbanization has warmed things within city limits.
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It will really suck in marginal temperature situations in winter when it's 31 and freezing rain/sleet/snow while in the city limits it's 34 and rain.
 
cd2play said:
It will really suck in marginal temperature situations in winter when it's 31 and freezing rain/sleet/snow while in the city limits it's 34 and rain.
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When there is widespread stratiform precip., my experience is that it is rare when there's much difference between city and immediate surrounding areas because they both tend to wetbulb to about the same level. In a sense, the low level extra warmth of the city is dissipated. Sort of like when it is windy.
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Definitely was a hot day, but not so bad under the shade, lost a bass that broke 10 pound test, biggest thing I ever seen, probably a 9-10 pounder and that thing was probably as big as my dog, or like around 23-26 inches, that area I fish at had unusually big LM bass and channel/blue cats, I’m actually upset right now and my grandpa said that was probably way bigger than his PB bass
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Time to get out Jimmys favorite lure, giant treble hook!
 
GaWx said:
When there is widespread stratiform precip., my experience is that it is rare when there's much difference between city and immediate surrounding areas because they both tend to wetbulb to about the same level. In a sense, the low level extra warmth of the city is dissipated. Sort of like when it is windy.
Click to expand...

Yep the heat island effect is most pronounced on very hot days like today and strong radiational cooling nights. Where I live is further inland from the warm nose though so in a sense Greenville would typically transition and be warmer than I am because of that. Like this past winter when I was just northwest of the boundary and saw 5” while Greenville saw a dusting.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Time to get out Jimmys favorite lure, giant treble hook!
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Supposedly I was using a carp/minnow hybrid, after having bad luck with any spinnerbait/swimbait I had, then on my first cast with the carp/minnow had that monster, that thing was so bout big as a mf, I’ve never been so upset before while fishing, I lost a bass that I would of never forgotten in my life ?
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Maybe in this case the analogs will end up being useless like they are when they point to a cold winter.
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Nah, analogs don't work mainly when they're cold. The reverse has been rare. Warm usually works out. The trend is your friend. Embrace the warmth. It won't kill us. We shouldn't treat it as our enemy. It is the new normal. Besides, even mild winters are far better than the coolest summers. We still have seasons.
 
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Holy poop!!!
a004e5244dc6e731a98765441aec75e3.jpg


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