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Pattern July

GaWx said:
100.9 F on my therm. at 2:30 PM. UN-BE-LIEVABLE! No seabreeze and just a few cumulus clouds.

Edit: make that 102.2 at 2:40 PM!! Hotter than anything I saw in May. Crazy!

Heat indices at 2 PM: 110 at Augusta and 108 at KSAV!

Irrigation resumes tonight.
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Like for the reporting, not to be confused with the report itself ... ;)
 
pcbjr said:
@GaWx Larry, Here ya go ... :(

View attachment 20736View attachment 20737


98.7º on my shaded north facing front porch at 2:51 PM ...
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Stay hydrated! As Phil's informative maps show, CHS, which is only 75 miles away as a crow flies, is only 87 and suburbs are down to as low as 77 due to an isolated popup due to the seabreeze!

My temp rose to an unreal 102.9 at 2:50 PM!! It will be interesting to see how hot the two official SAV area stations got at 3 PM.
 
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GaWx said:
Stay hydrated! As Phil's informative maps show, CHS, which is only 75 miles away as a crow flies, is only 87 and suburbs are down to as low as 77 due to an isolated popup due to the seabreeze!

My temp rose to an unreal 102.9 at 2:50 PM!! It will be interesting to see how hot the two official SAV area stations got at 3 PM.
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Yikes, Larry ...

Regrettably south of you looks to share in all the glory ...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
316 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019


FLZ020-021-023>025-030>033-035-037-038-122-124-125-133-136-138-
140-222-236-240-340-GAZ149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-
364-030900-
/O.NEW.KJAX.HT.Y.0001.190703T1500Z-190703T2200Z/
Hamilton-Suwannee-Baker-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union-Bradford-
Clay-Inland St. Johns-Gilchrist-Putnam-Inland Flagler-
Northern Columbia-Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coastal St. Johns-
Eastern Alachua-Coastal Flagler-Eastern Marion-Southern Columbia-
Western Alachua-Central Marion-Western Marion-Atkinson-Pierce-
Brantley-Inland Glynn-Coastal Glynn-Echols-Clinch-Inland Camden-
Coastal Camden-Northern Ware-Northeastern Charlton-Southern Ware-
Western Charlton-
Including the cities of Jasper, Jennings, West Lake, Belmont,
White Springs, Houston, Live Oak, McAlpin, Newburn,
Suwannee Springs, Macclenny, Olustee, Ratliff, Hilliard,
Kings Ferry, Bryceville, Normandy, Ortega, Riverside, San Marco,
Lake Butler, Starke, New River, Doctors Inlet, Lakeside, Bellair,
Middleburg, Orange Park, Fruit Cove, Switzerland, Bakersville,
Picolata, Trenton, Bostwick, Carraway, Palatka, Bunnell,
Espanola, Andalusia, Winfield, Suwannee Valley, Amelia City,
Fernandina Beach, Yulee, Arlington, Jacksonville, Oceanway,
Tallyrand, Ponte Vedra Beach, Durbin, Palm Valley, Anastasia,
Saint Augustine, Gainesville, Gainesville Airport, Newnans Lake,
Palm Coast, Lynne, Moss Bluff, Columbia, Lake City,
Oleno State Park, Lulu, Watertown, High Springs, Newberry,
Archer, Anthony, Burbank, Ocala, Weirsdale, Ocala Airport, Axson,
Pearson, Willacoochee, Blackshear, Atkinson, Hickox, Hortense,
Nahunta, Raybon, Waynesville, Hoboken, Thalmann, Jekyll Island,
Glynn Haven, Sea Island, St. Simons, Country Club Estate,
Dock Junction, Needmore, Statenville, Homerville, Colesburg,
Tarboro, Waverly, Woodbine, Dover Bluff, Kingsland, Dungeness,
Needham, Waycross, Winokur, Folkston, St. George, Homeland,
Race Pond, and Stephen Foster State Park
316 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a Heat
Advisory, which is in effect from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...Up to 109 due to temperatures around 100,
and dewpoints in the lower 70s.

* TIMING...Late morning through late afternoon hours on Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during
outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

image16.pngimage1.png
 
I ? summer! 04BA9C17-71D9-4142-936A-4D790E17017C.png
 
GaWx said:
Stay hydrated! As Phil's informative maps show, CHS, which is only 75 miles away as a crow flies, is only 87 and suburbs are down to as low as 77 due to an isolated popup due to the seabreeze!

My temp rose to an unreal 102.9 at 2:50 PM!! It will be interesting to see how hot the two official SAV area stations got at 3 PM.
Click to expand...

Folks, all it takes is a seabreeze getting well enough inland and a quick cooldown can occur. That's precisely what happened over the last hour with it cooling from the hottest I've seen this year of 102.9 at 2:50 PM to "only" 96.4 F at 3:55 PM. It's all about the windflow. Our highs for the day are in!
 
GaWx said:
Folks, all it takes is a seabreeze getting well enough inland and a quick cooldown can occur. That's precisely what happened over the last hour with it cooling from the hottest I've seen this year of 102.9 at 2:50 PM to "only" 96.4 F at 3:55 PM. It's all about the windflow. Our highs for the day are in!
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So, time to go take a long liesury stroll down an asphalt street or concrtete sidewalk, now that ii's cooled down ... (JK) ...
 
Boom goes the dynamite on the 3k
c33de676a34f2e237f02c0d69a503aa1.gif


Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
You haven't had your morning coffee yet
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Yeah I might have been a little over zealous I was thinking a little more activity along the sea breeze and with the Piedmont trough. Maybe things will get going later in the evening

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
Really nice climatology map came across my twitter feed earlier on the number of 100F days during July over the US. The proverbial hell that we've all unfortunately come to know & love at this time of the year, i.e. the Augusta-Columbia-Fayetteville corridor, shows up nicely on this map.
Average Number of July 100F days US.jpg
 
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
509 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2019

..THE SAVANNAH GA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JULY 2 2019

VALID TODAY AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1871 TO 2019

WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
..............................................................

TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 100 249 PM 101 1931 92 8 92
1897
MINIMUM 77 549 AM 63 1975 72 5 75
AVERAGE 89 82 7 84
-----------------------------------------------------------

Edit: Nearby Hunter also had a high of 100 meaning my 102.9 was an outlier of sorts. In the May heatwave, I was usually the coolest.
 
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GaWx said:
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
509 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2019

..THE SAVANNAH GA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JULY 2 2019

VALID TODAY AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1871 TO 2019

WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
..............................................................

TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 100 249 PM 101 1931 92 8 92
1897
MINIMUM 77 549 AM 63 1975 72 5 75
AVERAGE 89 82 7 84
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Larry,
Heart is out for y'all ...

Lost my boots in transit, baby they're a pile of smokin' leather
Nailed a retread to my feet and prayed for better weather
 
ForsythSnow said:
Tell me how this is anywhere remotely possible again? 5000 on the CAPE and a DP of 76? The NAM being itself of course.
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Ooohhh NO... You're getting storms on the 4th. If we're going to have to deal with storms in Middle TN over the July 4th weekend, you should have to as well. Lightning will be part of the package too. :p
 
snowlover91 said:
Here’s a great chart showing it. You know come winter it’ll reverse and be solidly positive.

View attachment 20732
Click to expand...

The GEFS suggests the -NAO will go at least through 7/16, which would make it a whopping 81 days straight with no end yet in sight! As a result, we're on track for one of the most, if not THE most, -NAO since 1950 for May-July averaged out. These years since 1950 also had a strong -NAO for May-July averaged out: 1958, 1993, 1998, 2008, 2012, and 2016.

How did May-Jul temperatures average for these 6 winters, combined? Warm in the SE. A -NAO then correlates to a warm SE.

MayThruJulyTempsWith-NAO.png

How were the subsequent winter temperatures in the SE?

1958: normal
1993: cold
1998: warm
2008: normal
2012: warm
2016: warm

So, fwiw, these 6 winters favor warmth over cold. This is encouraging for my forecast for still another mild SER dominated winter coming up.
How did DJF temperatures average for these 6 winters, combined? Warm in the SE

WinterTempAfter-NAOMayThruJuly.png

Conclusion: having this current very long-lived -NAO doesn't at all favor a cold winter upcoming and to the contrary favors warmth. So, don't be fooled. The SER is liable to stick around for another winter. But I'm hopeful for a change for 2020-21.
 
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GaWx said:
The GEFS suggests the -NAO will go at least through 7/16, which would make it a whopping 81 days straight with no end yet in sight! As a result, we're on track for one of the most, if not THE most, -NAO for May-July averaged out. These years since 1950 also had a strong -NAO for May-July averaged out: 1958, 1993, 1998, 2008, 2012, and 2016.

How did May-Jul temperatures average for these 6 winters, combined? Warm in the SE

View attachment 20744

How were the subsequent winter temperatures in the SE?

1958: normal
1993: cold
1998: warm
2008: normal
2012: warm
2016: warm

So, fwiw, these 6 winters favor warmth over cold. This is encouraging for my forecast for still another mild SER dominated winter coming up.
How did DJF temperatures average for these 6 winters, combined? Warm in the SE

View attachment 20745

Conclusion: having this current very long-lived -NAO doesn't at all favor a cold winter upcoming and to the contrary favors warmth. So, don't be fooled. The SER is liable to stick around for another winter. But I'm hopeful for a change for 2020-21.
Click to expand...
The good news is the 2020-21 winter will probably have the trough in the east, blocking, _NAO, etc, only for all the cold air to be in Europe, leaving us with 40s and rain.
 
cd2play said:
The good news is the 2020-21 winter will probably have the trough in the east, blocking, _NAO, etc, only for all the cold air to be in Europe, leaving us with 40s and rain.
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That sir, if extended for say 10 weeks, and if IMBY, would be a coup ... ;)
 
btw ... gonna probably delete this in 5 minutes (if I remember to) since I hate IMBY ... but hell yes ... it is raining ... on with the show
 
GaWx said:
The GEFS suggests the -NAO will go at least through 7/16, which would make it a whopping 81 days straight with no end yet in sight! As a result, we're on track for one of the most, if not THE most, -NAO since 1950 for May-July averaged out. These years since 1950 also had a strong -NAO for May-July averaged out: 1958, 1993, 1998, 2008, 2012, and 2016.

How did May-Jul temperatures average for these 6 winters, combined? Warm in the SE. A -NAO then correlates to a warm SE.

View attachment 20744

How were the subsequent winter temperatures in the SE?

1958: normal
1993: cold
1998: warm
2008: normal
2012: warm
2016: warm

So, fwiw, these 6 winters favor warmth over cold. This is encouraging for my forecast for still another mild SER dominated winter coming up.
How did DJF temperatures average for these 6 winters, combined? Warm in the SE

View attachment 20745

Conclusion: having this current very long-lived -NAO doesn't at all favor a cold winter upcoming and to the contrary favors warmth. So, don't be fooled. The SER is liable to stick around for another winter. But I'm hopeful for a change for 2020-21.
Click to expand...
Maybe in this case the analogs will end up being useless like they are when they point to a cold winter.
 
Interesting observation today as I left work and headed home during peak heating. The temperatures throughout the city were 100F on my car thermometer but as soon as I escaped the city limits the temperature quickly dropped 2F within a half mile and another 1F a few miles later. Then by the time I got home, out in the country surrounded by fields and trees, the temperature dropped a few more degrees as I entered the more rural areas. Total difference? It was 100F in Greenville (car thermometer) and 94F at my house. Heat island effect in full force no doubt and it’s amazing to see how much urbanization has warmed things within city limits.
 
SD said:
Yeah I might have been a little over zealous I was thinking a little more activity along the sea breeze and with the Piedmont trough. Maybe things will get going later in the evening

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
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Here comes the development

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
Definitely was a hot day, but not so bad under the shade, lost a bass that broke 10 pound test, biggest thing I ever seen, probably a 9-10 pounder and that thing was probably as big as my dog, or like around 23-26 inches, that area I fish at had unusually big LM bass and channel/blue cats, I’m actually upset right now and my grandpa said that was probably way bigger than his PB bass
 
snowlover91 said:
Interesting observation today as I left work and headed home during peak heating. The temperatures throughout the city were 100F on my car thermometer but as soon as I escaped the city limits the temperature quickly dropped 2F within a half mile and another 1F a few miles later. Then by the time I got home, out in the country surrounded by fields and trees, the temperature dropped a few more degrees as I entered the more rural areas. Total difference? It was 100F in Greenville (car thermometer) and 94F at my house. Heat island effect in full force no doubt and it’s amazing to see how much urbanization has warmed things within city limits.
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It will really suck in marginal temperature situations in winter when it's 31 and freezing rain/sleet/snow while in the city limits it's 34 and rain.
 
cd2play said:
It will really suck in marginal temperature situations in winter when it's 31 and freezing rain/sleet/snow while in the city limits it's 34 and rain.
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When there is widespread stratiform precip., my experience is that it is rare when there's much difference between city and immediate surrounding areas because they both tend to wetbulb to about the same level. In a sense, the low level extra warmth of the city is dissipated. Sort of like when it is windy.
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Definitely was a hot day, but not so bad under the shade, lost a bass that broke 10 pound test, biggest thing I ever seen, probably a 9-10 pounder and that thing was probably as big as my dog, or like around 23-26 inches, that area I fish at had unusually big LM bass and channel/blue cats, I’m actually upset right now and my grandpa said that was probably way bigger than his PB bass
Click to expand...
Time to get out Jimmys favorite lure, giant treble hook!
 
GaWx said:
When there is widespread stratiform precip., my experience is that it is rare when there's much difference between city and immediate surrounding areas because they both tend to wetbulb to about the same level. In a sense, the low level extra warmth of the city is dissipated. Sort of like when it is windy.
Click to expand...

Yep the heat island effect is most pronounced on very hot days like today and strong radiational cooling nights. Where I live is further inland from the warm nose though so in a sense Greenville would typically transition and be warmer than I am because of that. Like this past winter when I was just northwest of the boundary and saw 5” while Greenville saw a dusting.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Time to get out Jimmys favorite lure, giant treble hook!
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Supposedly I was using a carp/minnow hybrid, after having bad luck with any spinnerbait/swimbait I had, then on my first cast with the carp/minnow had that monster, that thing was so bout big as a mf, I’ve never been so upset before while fishing, I lost a bass that I would of never forgotten in my life ?
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Maybe in this case the analogs will end up being useless like they are when they point to a cold winter.
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Nah, analogs don't work mainly when they're cold. The reverse has been rare. Warm usually works out. The trend is your friend. Embrace the warmth. It won't kill us. We shouldn't treat it as our enemy. It is the new normal. Besides, even mild winters are far better than the coolest summers. We still have seasons.
 
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