Not a bad little shift there....
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Wintry March 05-06th 2019 Wintry Weather
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Luckily I’m headed back to Fayetteville tomorrow, definitely stand a decent chance to get some flurries Tue morningJust close enough to keep me curious....
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Soundings are interesting got a little lift in the 700-850mb layers and some saturation in the dgz. Wouldnt be surprising to see some virga around tuesdayJust close enough to keep me curious....
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I want some flurries
The 12Z GFS dropped most of that very light rain that it had the previous couple of runs over central GA into SE SC. Now it shows no qpf over .05” over the entire SE with the closest to 0.05” of rain just off SE SC. The only ones getting at least 0.01” of rain are from just N of SAV to just N of CHS area. None of this very light rain is anything close to wintry with temps in the 40s.
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Pretty much all gefs members are a whiff, what a change from 12z yesterday, it was nice tracking this chance and I’m not disappointed as I can learn from this and apply/compare it to a setup similar to this the next time
Too much wedge for thunderstorms, too little wedge for snow. Stuck in rain cold purgatory till May. Just fantabulous.
It’s completely maddening, we can’t have no interesting weather here just a cold rain ?
Eh we might erode the wedge just enough we get a little interesting weather tonight
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12Z Euro confirms this is pretty much a nonevent for wintry with the main feature being just light rain in parts of SW, central, and east-central GA as well as in SE SC. It retained just a tiny area of 1/2” SN just W of Macon from 0.05” of qpf with temps falling to near 32 and 850 just down to 0C fwiw. I’d interpret that as a chance of flurries or pellets mixing with the light rain in that area at best.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
This one seems DOA.
The 12Z EPS agrees. It has the least amount of qpf over the SE of at least the last 4 runs with the 0.05"+ area covering only SE SC, S GA ,and SE AL. The 0.05" line skirts the NC coast like it has the last 3+ runs. As of now, I think the best to expect over the SE are a few areas of light sleet or SN most likely mixed in with light rain for a short period . IF that occurred, it would be near the northern extent of the precip. over central AL/GA (perhaps MCN for example) and also near a Charlotte to Fayetteville line if any precip would happen to get that far north. Otherwise, it would be all light rain. But there could easily be no wintry anywhere and the trends are in the less threatening direction at the moment though there's still a little bit of time to reverse that trend and go more in the direction of the often overzealous NAM. That's my take for now fwiw.
The hrrr sucks a$$, I was supposed to get my elevated thunderstorms a few days ago but that is definitely interesting as its normally to dry lol
Lol anyways that should be rain on the hrrr, not snow
Jon
Member
It would be all snow but we need moisture and there’s none here
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If anyone here doesn’t think that 0.8” accumulation in central GA is fake news, please reply.
pcbjr
Member
So, you want the silent treatment, huh? ... LOL
The thunder rule? Lmao
You'd still get snow out of that sounding just not big fluffy dendrites.Yep, thats what I meant, no moisture in the snow growth zone so a cold light rain, we’re so good at thatView attachment 17259
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RollTide18
Member
Well, 10 years ago there was snow a day after tornadoes, might as well reach for one last flake until 2020.
Me either. Looking at the 0z nams there is a little saturation in a couple of layers and some lift but nothing crazy. HRRR might be over done a little but I wouldn't be shocked to see a little virga around.
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The 0Z Euro gives a very small area near @GeorgiaGirl ~1/2" of SN from 0.10" of qpf on Mon night. Perhaps a little bit of sleet or snow in the mix but 1/2" of accum?? Come on King, are you drunk?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You, Columbia, and the rest of middle Georgia definitely deserve some after what you just had to go thru
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
NWS Birmingham reported snow about 3 hours ago so that "rule" already verified there lol
So, the new rule is 7 hours afterward instead of 7 days afterward?
I'm waiting just a few more minutes to see the 0Z EPS for Monday night before saying night night.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I actually already went to bed at about 8-9 ish because I have to work at 5am in the morning and now can't go back to sleep lol so I guess I'm also up for the EPS technically.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
EPS shifted the precip NWward, back to where the 0z suite was last night.
Arguably the most impressive EPS suite yet.
Reel it in @deltadog03
I definitely stand a chance of getting something down in Fayetteville Tue am
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
FFC considering adding some flurries to the forecast for middle GA.
Will be seeing an exiting weak system of low pressure as the
extended portion begins. With colder temps in place during the
morning, came close to adding some flurries in but moisture does
not appear to be sufficient enough at this time to support.
Will be seeing an exiting weak system of low pressure as the
extended portion begins. With colder temps in place during the
morning, came close to adding some flurries in but moisture does
not appear to be sufficient enough at this time to support.
Ilovesnow28
Member
Hey @Webberweather53 due you think Tuscaloosa and Birmingham have a shot at some flurries if the moisture moves more north in Alabama
Holy cow, snow being shown to be falling as far south as Abbeville, AL, as well as Albany and Tifton, GA, on the EPS is crazy!! I don't mean crazy that's impossible, I mean crazy that would be such a rarity! I mean Macon and Augusta are one thing, but 100 miles further south all the way down to Albany and Tifton? I'm not even talking about the 0.1"+ accum showing here, which I'm not believing for now, but just that it has any snow falling period there! It is extremely rare for just flurries or sleet that far south for any month! It has been exactly 50 years since Tifton has received a T of snow or sleet in March! Could we be seeing a little bit of history tomorrow night there and nearby? Well we do have an airmass to the north in the Midwest that is the coldest in March in decades. So, who knows?
On another but related subject, there's an interesting dichotomy between the GFS and Euro suites the last few runs on qpf , with the contrast being the largest on this latest run with the EPS' even heavier qpf as Webb showed and which is within only about 36 hours! The 0Z Euro, supported heavily by the EPS, has an area of qpf centered new Brunswick, GA, that measures 0.25" for the 12 hour period Tuesday 1 AM-1 PM vs the past 4+ GFS suites measuring virtually nothing! This is very unusual for being so close!
The CDN/GEPS happen to agree strongly with the Euro suite by the way.
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Keep in mind that FFC wrote this before the 0Z Euro suite was released.
