Ok good, you got me.... I'm wrong and so is every other person that feels the same way. Like I said in the Fab thread I'm not seeking an argument here and I hope it dumps wintry precip imby, your backyard and anyone else that loves winter weather.
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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
Btw I'm not just speaking about NC.... look at this one from from Jan. 30. Is wintry precip still in the forecast for Texas tomorrow?
snowlover91
Member
Not trying to argue either, if someone can demonstrate an instance where the FV3 inside 6 days consistently showed a big snow/ice threat that hasn't verified (outside the frontal fail that all models missed) then it would be worth looking at... but as it is I haven't seen any scenarios it locked on and for this weekend I checked every run of it and only found 2 inside the 8 day range where it showed wintry weather for NC and none inside 6 days. I think so far it's proven to be, at least this winter, the best model inside 6 days from the limited sample size of events I've tracked.
snowlover91
Member
Btw I'm not just speaking about NC.... look at this one from from Jan. 30. Is wintry precip still in the forecast for Texas tomorrow?
But that's a 204 hour plot, all models are pretty wild that far out. We are talking inside 6 days not 8-9. The Euro and other models have plenty of examples of systems at hours 180+ that don't verify either.
Fair enough.... but help me out because I could certainly have missed it. Is there an instance where the FV3 locked onto a wintry threat inside day 6, with no other modeled support, and got it right?
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Well, I think the December storm is the only other opportunity we have had to see if that happened.
It may have picked it up first but other models then "came on board"..... that's why I've said I'd feel better if it had support. I swear y'all would think I cussed your mama the way you go after someone for just not trusting the FV3 Lol.
NWS has a high of 55 and 57 next Mon and Tues in Charlotte. When exactly is this winter storm supposed to hit?
snowlover91
Member
As Brick mentioned it did quite well with that storm and other models came on board as well. Other than that we haven't really had any winter weather events of note this year but the GFS is very close to supporting the FV3, it has a similar HP strength/position but just doesn't push the cold air into NC. CMC has no idea what to do with the pattern coming up as usual and the Euro is significantly different with our HP.
Kylo
Member
I know, where did this unwarranted trust of the FV come from. I would go back to the Dec storm thread and pick this arguement apart but when the FV loses this “threat” in the next day or two we can put this to bed.
So just coming into the thread and catching up.... What is the claim? That the FV3 is better at locking onto threats inside of day 6 than other models?
snowlover91
Member
My personal opinion is that the FV3 has demonstrated the best handle on the 5h setup inside 6 days compared with other models (specifically for the NC area). I demonstrated in the fab February thread how this was the case as well. The reason the FV3 seems to be showing ice vs other models is that it has a stronger HP and slightly further south with it vs the GFS and especially the Euro.
The unanswered question due to small sample size/winter threats this year is how well it handles CAD 6 days out. Is it too aggressive with the cold press for CAD setups and overamping highs way too much? Or is it handling the CAD better and it will be something that other models like the GFS and Euro don't show yet but catch on as we get closer to go time?
My recollection, and y'all please correct me if I'm wrong, is that the FV3 showed the December storm more consistently and sooner than the other models, which subsequently trended toward the FV3. Is that right?
Since that time, there have been no other instances where the FV3 inside 6 days (that's the time frame we're using to make a judgement, correct?) consistently showed a winter storm and the other models trended toward it. Is that correct?
If all that is correct, then there are seemingly no real conclusions we can draw re: the FV3 and its ability to more quickly and accurately identify a winter storm in the mid-range, as it relates to its accuracy vs. other models. Maybe it has a higher skill generally. Maybe it has a higher skill in certain situations. Maybe it got lucky. Maybe it's actually worse. But with a sample size of exactly 1, we are still completely in the dark.
On the other hand, I think there have been plenty of instances of it overdoing cold and high pressure strength out in the mid-longer term, although I haven't studied it enough to define the exact time frame where this is a problem.
Since that time, there have been no other instances where the FV3 inside 6 days (that's the time frame we're using to make a judgement, correct?) consistently showed a winter storm and the other models trended toward it. Is that correct?
If all that is correct, then there are seemingly no real conclusions we can draw re: the FV3 and its ability to more quickly and accurately identify a winter storm in the mid-range, as it relates to its accuracy vs. other models. Maybe it has a higher skill generally. Maybe it has a higher skill in certain situations. Maybe it got lucky. Maybe it's actually worse. But with a sample size of exactly 1, we are still completely in the dark.
On the other hand, I think there have been plenty of instances of it overdoing cold and high pressure strength out in the mid-longer term, although I haven't studied it enough to define the exact time frame where this is a problem.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
If it's a CAD depiction, I'd lean towards the GFS being wrong and potentially way wrong but with still no support for the FV3 I'd lean towards it being out to lunch in Mexico.
Okay maybe not that badly (there could be a little ice but nothing that is ridiculous) but remembering it fondly already with one case seems like something I described last night.
Okay maybe not that badly (there could be a little ice but nothing that is ridiculous) but remembering it fondly already with one case seems like something I described last night.
0% chance the FV3 has this sniffed out on an island of its own. Just no way
Someone the other day posted 2m temps from 7.5 days out and it remained virtually unchanged leading up to and at verification. I still don’t believe what the FV3 is selling. I think they’re on to something though. It has lots of potential
snowlover91
Member
Day 7+ is where this seems to be a major problem on the FV3, inside 6 days it seems to be much better. The temperature profiles of the FV3 are the biggest question here. It has support from the GFS for the HP strength and position but the Euro is vastly different. If we get the modeled HP of 1042-1045 where the FV3 has it then the scenario is depicts is very realistic. I demonstrated in the Fab February thread that at 6 day leads the FV3 and GFS actually were the two best models for the observed HP strength/position we have right now. The CMC was the worst and the Euro wasn't very good.
Looking at the synoptics the GFS and FV3 are remarkably similar with the main difference being the LP in the midwest and how far south the HP drives the cold air. We know the old GFS struggles in CAD setups especially 5+ days out. Let's see if the FV3 hangs onto the threat today or loses it. If we keep the threat through the 00z runs tonight it will get very interesting to see which model ends up being right and giving in.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Go ahead. It's been laid out with examples why some are looking at the FV3 and seeing if it does as good with this system inside 6 days as it was with the other. It is really the only other storm we have had so far that is even worth mentioning as far as how the models did inside 6 days. We all know all the models have done bad at one time or another outside 7 days, so that's really not a point. I just don't get why some are all over folks for looking at the FV3 and thinking it might be right again. It's really only the second threat we have had to see how it does anyway. It feels like some folks just want to crush others' hopes. If you don't think it's right, then no need in seeing if there is a threat for next week and move along.
The way FV3 rains hours on end before temps crash is proof enough for me that the FV3 is wrong for MBY
"I just don't get why some are all over folks for looking at the FV3 and thinking it might be right again."
This is a straw man argument. Nobody is all over anybody for looking at the FV3 and thinking that it might be right again. It very well could be. But there is a quite a difference between being all over somebody and questioning the validity of a 6 day forecast from a model that has only been tested 1 time.