21 bouta make euros now lol, many people thought he was from ATL, and 6ix9ine is something else lol
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
21 bouta make euros now lol, many people thought he was from ATL, and 6ix9ine is something else lol
BufordWX
Member
Where do I sign up to make this reality?
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
24 hour average soil temp in Greensboro is 55 degrees...the necessary threshold for crabgrass germination. That number will only climb with highs in the 70s and lows in the 60s the next two days.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
But their athletes have been required to go to REAL classes that required REAL work and REAL attendance; unlike the University of No Class down the road.
FV3 clown maps are ROLLING today
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
They all take easy classes to stay eligible. Classes that are offered to every student. There is no way most of them could stay in school if they didn't with the demands on their time and how often they are away from school. It is the same at every school with any type of athletic program. Don't kid yourself. A lot of these kids would not even be able to get into schools like UNC, State, and Duke. So you really think they could do the same work as every other student? My nephew is at ECU, and has a class where all he does is watch movies and then writes a paper on the movie, and he's not even an athlete.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
FV3 clown maps are ROLLING today
Everyone laughed when I said I would get 8 inches of snow in the December storm because of what the FV3. I ended up getting close to 10.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I really do think NC will get some kind of winter storm again before the end of the month. Too many shots being fired on the models to miss.
Kylo
Member
When can we put to bed how great the FV is. It’s a hump fest in the storm thread of a really bad model after day 5. I guess in 5-6 days when NC doesn’t get a big winter storm we can move past this.
Every model had the Dec storm from day 6-7 not just the FV.
Every model had the Dec storm from day 6-7 not just the FV.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
NCSU sucks in general, but they do have a world famous horticultural program! JC Raulston arboretum, is a bucketlist item for me
I moved all the political talk to the Political Thread found here...
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/political-thread.22/page-3
Have at it in there... it's a good opportunity to remind everyone of that thread and encourage use of it. Now I left all the food stuff and deleted the food/diet thread basically because the way some of you eat y'all goin need a wambulance.
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/political-thread.22/page-3
Have at it in there... it's a good opportunity to remind everyone of that thread and encourage use of it. Now I left all the food stuff and deleted the food/diet thread basically because the way some of you eat y'all goin need a wambulance.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
FV3 had it first, though, and was more accurate in what actually happened. If you don't think it's going to happen, then no need in continuing to follow it.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
FYP! Ask AL about the GFSv3 1 day out analfrontal snow?
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
GFSv3 = new DGEX
I'll agree the FV3 locked on early and led the way in Dec but it's also busted horribly many time since then, could it do it again sure, will it? Time will tell.
Now to your last point I don't entirely agree... I personally don't think it's going to happen either but I'll keep following it until the FV3 loses it completely or if other models come on board and it actually verifies then I was wrong to think it wasn't going to happen. But thinking something will or will not happen doesn't seem like a reason to discuss weather or not.
snowlover91
Member
I'm not sure what people are talking about with the FV3 busting horribly. Every storm I've tracked on it inside 6 days it's been quite reliable and very good. If people are referring to the anafrontal snow bust, well all models busted horribly on that one. I can't think of any threats that the FV3 has consistently shown for my area inside 6 days, the only threat it's shown here was the early December storm. Now outside 6-7 days it can have some wild solutions but inside 6 days I think it's a very good model. I just showed a good example in the February thread of how it matches up best with current observations vs other models from 6 days ago.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Maybe it's just for NC, but it has been very good for here inside 5 to 6 days like you said. All of the models have shown storms past 7 days this winter only for them to go poof when we get inside 7 days.
I'm speaking specifically post d5 and I don't recall specifics but the fv3 has shown wintry precip over me numerous times this year and if I'm not mistaken just the other day it was showing a significant storm this weekend, which it has lost. Again I'll concede inside day 5 it might be solid, also let's face it sample size too small to get a good idea of how it will eventually perform
Kylo
Member
Well this will be good test. Let the humping commence.
snowlover91
Member
It had one run 174 hours out (7+ days away) showing wintry weather for NC this weekend and every other run after that was dry/no winter weather. Not once inside 6 days has it shown anything wintry for this weekend. I think this upcoming 11-12th storm is different. It hasn't shown it a few random runs, it has consistently been depicting it for DAYS now and we are now getting inside 6 days where the FV3 does very well from the limited sample size we have.
Next run took that away and it hasn't shown anything at all inside 6 days.
And here is it's current 84 hour forecast for this time period.
Ok good, you got me.... I'm wrong and so is every other person that feels the same way. Like I said in the Fab thread I'm not seeking an argument here and I hope it dumps wintry precip imby, your backyard and anyone else that loves winter weather.
Btw I'm not just speaking about NC.... look at this one from from Jan. 30. Is wintry precip still in the forecast for Texas tomorrow?
snowlover91
Member
Not trying to argue either, if someone can demonstrate an instance where the FV3 inside 6 days consistently showed a big snow/ice threat that hasn't verified (outside the frontal fail that all models missed) then it would be worth looking at... but as it is I haven't seen any scenarios it locked on and for this weekend I checked every run of it and only found 2 inside the 8 day range where it showed wintry weather for NC and none inside 6 days. I think so far it's proven to be, at least this winter, the best model inside 6 days from the limited sample size of events I've tracked.
snowlover91
Member
Btw I'm not just speaking about NC.... look at this one from from Jan. 30. Is wintry precip still in the forecast for Texas tomorrow?
But that's a 204 hour plot, all models are pretty wild that far out. We are talking inside 6 days not 8-9. The Euro and other models have plenty of examples of systems at hours 180+ that don't verify either.
Fair enough.... but help me out because I could certainly have missed it. Is there an instance where the FV3 locked onto a wintry threat inside day 6, with no other modeled support, and got it right?
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Well, I think the December storm is the only other opportunity we have had to see if that happened.
It may have picked it up first but other models then "came on board"..... that's why I've said I'd feel better if it had support. I swear y'all would think I cussed your mama the way you go after someone for just not trusting the FV3 Lol.
NWS has a high of 55 and 57 next Mon and Tues in Charlotte. When exactly is this winter storm supposed to hit?
snowlover91
Member
As Brick mentioned it did quite well with that storm and other models came on board as well. Other than that we haven't really had any winter weather events of note this year but the GFS is very close to supporting the FV3, it has a similar HP strength/position but just doesn't push the cold air into NC. CMC has no idea what to do with the pattern coming up as usual and the Euro is significantly different with our HP.
Kylo
Member
I know, where did this unwarranted trust of the FV come from. I would go back to the Dec storm thread and pick this arguement apart but when the FV loses this “threat” in the next day or two we can put this to bed.
So just coming into the thread and catching up.... What is the claim? That the FV3 is better at locking onto threats inside of day 6 than other models?
snowlover91
Member
My personal opinion is that the FV3 has demonstrated the best handle on the 5h setup inside 6 days compared with other models (specifically for the NC area). I demonstrated in the fab February thread how this was the case as well. The reason the FV3 seems to be showing ice vs other models is that it has a stronger HP and slightly further south with it vs the GFS and especially the Euro.
The unanswered question due to small sample size/winter threats this year is how well it handles CAD 6 days out. Is it too aggressive with the cold press for CAD setups and overamping highs way too much? Or is it handling the CAD better and it will be something that other models like the GFS and Euro don't show yet but catch on as we get closer to go time?
My recollection, and y'all please correct me if I'm wrong, is that the FV3 showed the December storm more consistently and sooner than the other models, which subsequently trended toward the FV3. Is that right?
Since that time, there have been no other instances where the FV3 inside 6 days (that's the time frame we're using to make a judgement, correct?) consistently showed a winter storm and the other models trended toward it. Is that correct?
If all that is correct, then there are seemingly no real conclusions we can draw re: the FV3 and its ability to more quickly and accurately identify a winter storm in the mid-range, as it relates to its accuracy vs. other models. Maybe it has a higher skill generally. Maybe it has a higher skill in certain situations. Maybe it got lucky. Maybe it's actually worse. But with a sample size of exactly 1, we are still completely in the dark.
On the other hand, I think there have been plenty of instances of it overdoing cold and high pressure strength out in the mid-longer term, although I haven't studied it enough to define the exact time frame where this is a problem.
Since that time, there have been no other instances where the FV3 inside 6 days (that's the time frame we're using to make a judgement, correct?) consistently showed a winter storm and the other models trended toward it. Is that correct?
If all that is correct, then there are seemingly no real conclusions we can draw re: the FV3 and its ability to more quickly and accurately identify a winter storm in the mid-range, as it relates to its accuracy vs. other models. Maybe it has a higher skill generally. Maybe it has a higher skill in certain situations. Maybe it got lucky. Maybe it's actually worse. But with a sample size of exactly 1, we are still completely in the dark.
On the other hand, I think there have been plenty of instances of it overdoing cold and high pressure strength out in the mid-longer term, although I haven't studied it enough to define the exact time frame where this is a problem.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
If it's a CAD depiction, I'd lean towards the GFS being wrong and potentially way wrong but with still no support for the FV3 I'd lean towards it being out to lunch in Mexico.
Okay maybe not that badly (there could be a little ice but nothing that is ridiculous) but remembering it fondly already with one case seems like something I described last night.
Okay maybe not that badly (there could be a little ice but nothing that is ridiculous) but remembering it fondly already with one case seems like something I described last night.
0% chance the FV3 has this sniffed out on an island of its own. Just no way
Someone the other day posted 2m temps from 7.5 days out and it remained virtually unchanged leading up to and at verification. I still don’t believe what the FV3 is selling. I think they’re on to something though. It has lots of potential
snowlover91
Member
Day 7+ is where this seems to be a major problem on the FV3, inside 6 days it seems to be much better. The temperature profiles of the FV3 are the biggest question here. It has support from the GFS for the HP strength and position but the Euro is vastly different. If we get the modeled HP of 1042-1045 where the FV3 has it then the scenario is depicts is very realistic. I demonstrated in the Fab February thread that at 6 day leads the FV3 and GFS actually were the two best models for the observed HP strength/position we have right now. The CMC was the worst and the Euro wasn't very good.
Looking at the synoptics the GFS and FV3 are remarkably similar with the main difference being the LP in the midwest and how far south the HP drives the cold air. We know the old GFS struggles in CAD setups especially 5+ days out. Let's see if the FV3 hangs onto the threat today or loses it. If we keep the threat through the 00z runs tonight it will get very interesting to see which model ends up being right and giving in.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Go ahead. It's been laid out with examples why some are looking at the FV3 and seeing if it does as good with this system inside 6 days as it was with the other. It is really the only other storm we have had so far that is even worth mentioning as far as how the models did inside 6 days. We all know all the models have done bad at one time or another outside 7 days, so that's really not a point. I just don't get why some are all over folks for looking at the FV3 and thinking it might be right again. It's really only the second threat we have had to see how it does anyway. It feels like some folks just want to crush others' hopes. If you don't think it's right, then no need in seeing if there is a threat for next week and move along.
The way FV3 rains hours on end before temps crash is proof enough for me that the FV3 is wrong for MBY
"I just don't get why some are all over folks for looking at the FV3 and thinking it might be right again."
This is a straw man argument. Nobody is all over anybody for looking at the FV3 and thinking that it might be right again. It very well could be. But there is a quite a difference between being all over somebody and questioning the validity of a 6 day forecast from a model that has only been tested 1 time.