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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

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GFS much dryer. Last 4 runs have trended that way. I still think parts of TN and “maybe” extreme northern AL MS GA could possibly see a light dusting
 
Parker said:
You discounting the Euro, EPS, GEFS, and canadian?
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No. I’m mainly speaking about GFS. Euro was encouraging but without some type of reinforcement I don’t see how this is more than a run of the mill frontal passage and we all know how those usually end up in the end. I would still be excited if I lived in the areas i mentioned. Euro will be telling tonight
 
Parker said:
You discounting the Euro, EPS, GEFS, and canadian?
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You've been on this board (& the last place) long enough to know this...if a given model doesn't present a personally subjective positive outcome for one's BY, to quote @Storm5, "We toss"...or, [insert any other seasoned poster] "Model is garbage and/or out to lunch".

To your point though, there do seem to be clear divisiveness in the models.
 
FV3 isn't any better. Gonna have to take something like the Euro is offering even with all it's issues.

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I fully expect the 00z to change, if I’m not mistaken the 12/18z and 00/06z have the same data and will often look similar
 
Parker said:
GFS with less precipitation and not as cold. Hopefully its just a bad run.
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I mean given how clipper type systems usually work out for us, the GFS May be on to something and the other models will get in line. The wildcard is if this thing can somehow pop a low.


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So for western areas of the southeast we may get no more than a dusting? I know the setup isn't ideal for a good snow, it being a clipper system, but maybe a couple of inches is still a possibility.

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mydoortotheworld said:
What’s funny is that while the operational GFS has trended drier, the ensembles tell a different story
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Here are the eps members and gefs members from 12z today . Many support a light event no doubt but there are a few in both sets that fizzle to very little . So a drier solution is very possible
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Storm5 said:
Yeah I’ll take mid 20s and the snowy euro . It’s the best looking model out there for MBY. Time to ignore reality .....All hail the king
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Euro control and EPS
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Use to be the euro was showing the goods you could toss the other models aside. More recently I’ve noticed though that the euro always seems to show more snow then what reality ends up being. This is for my area only though as I haven’t paid attention to other areas and storms that play out. I say it’s time for the euro to act like the king and bring us to victory!!
 
olhausen said:
Use to be the euro was showing the goods you could toss the other models aside. More recently I’ve noticed though that the euro always seems to show more snow then what reality ends up being. This is for my area only though as I haven’t paid attention to other areas and storms that play out. I say it’s time for the euro to act like the king and bring us to victory!!
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This is very true . I know one thing I won’t believe a damn thing the FV3 says . The horrible model showed parts of Mississippi getting a few inches of snow behind the Wednesday system this past week .it sucks


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ATLwxfan said:
The negativity is funny but unfortunately probably makes more sense as an outcome for a clipper. I’d also say the GFS has trended dry the last few runs.


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I’ll feel much better if the 18z gfs and 00z euro come in with more precipitation on tonight’s runs.

Edit: 00Z gfs
 
ATLwxfan said:
The negativity is funny but unfortunately probably makes more sense as an outcome for a clipper. I’d also say the GFS has trended dry the last few runs.


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It has, but the Euro has trended wetter and has also brought the idea of a second wave. I know it sounds like I’m favoring models that best fit mby, which I am, but let’s say the GFS was wetter and the Euro was drier, I would be much much more concerned. If the Euro continues to trend wetter then I’m going to favor it even more because the GFS has shown a tendency to be late to the party many times.
 
I think it should also be mentioned that we're still over 3 days away from the event. There will still be model (and mood) swings every 6 hours. Just set your expectations low and see what happens.

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The 18z GEFS looks drier than the 12z by about a 1/10th of an inch of qpf across most areas. Not a trend you want to see. Hopefully future runs will beef back up. Those of you with access to the individual members, I'm curious if any develop a low with enhanced precip similar to the Euro. If that doesn't happen, the moisture could be limited and we may see further reduction in totals in future runs.
 
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