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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

Webberweather53 said:
It's hard to predict because the models like the GFS & Euro have cold biases over areas w/ snow cover due to surface parameterizations in the models which could mean they're overdoing the snow here, and frontal wave if one formed would be weak & somewhat reliant on the distribution of diabatic heating within the overall frontal boundary which is hard to capture this far in advance or even more than 2-3 days out.
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Wow, just learned something new there. So what youre saying, is that this could pop up at the last second? Would it be something like or the same thing/related to the Mid January event last year which trended to more precip during the last couple days?
 
Rick said:
Brad travis in Huntsville says first alert for Tuesday minor accumulation chance now at 50 percent
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That a good sign considering how much can change between now and then. I wasn't expecting local news to mention more than flurries til Sunday or so.
 
Robert West said:
Wow, just learned something new there. So what youre saying, is that this could pop up at the last second? Would it be something like or the same thing/related to the Mid January event last year which trended to more precip during the last couple days?
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To Webbs point that is what happened last year. A small surface wave formed on the front and provided extra lift. I recieved an 1.5 inches, my work around 2 inches and toward Montgomery around 3 inches. The models only had a dusting to a inch across the northern half of AL before the picked up on the wave.
 
Robert West said:
Wow, just learned something new there. So what youre saying, is that this could pop up at the last second? Would it be something like or the same thing/related to the Mid January event last year which trended to more precip during the last couple days?
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In the January case we had a much slower moving upper level low whose precipitation was being driven primarily by cyclonic vorticity advection (CVA). There's definitely CVA here but it happens much more quickly because the parent wave is moving rapidly eastward and involves a sharp trough axis on the leading edge of a very cold air mass that'll promote sinking more appreciably on the backside of the boundary (even tho considerable precip will still occur). Let's also not forget the diurnal timing in January 2018 was a bit more conducive with precipitation onset in the late overnight & morning across central NC (obviously later further east deeper into the coastal plain).
 
Rick said:
Brad travis in Huntsville says first alert for Tuesday minor accumulation chance now at 50 percent
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he isn't talking about huge accumulations yet, though some of these runs today will up that, but even an inch or two will be major problems with plunging temps..
 
Webberweather53 said:
In the January case we had a much slower moving upper level low whose precipitation was being driven primarily by cyclonic vorticity advection (CVA). There's definitely CVA here but it happens much more quickly because the parent wave is moving rapidly eastward and involves a sharp trough axis on the leading edge of a very cold air mass that'll promote sinking more appreciably on the backside of the boundary (even tho considerable precip will still occur). Let's also not forget the diurnal timing in January 2018 was a bit more conducive with precipitation onset in the late overnight & morning across central NC (obviously later further east deeper into the coastal plain).
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Thanks for the information man.
 
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Man it went quiet in here, but anyways I haven’t changed my thoughts on Nc, altho I really do hope we can get a separate wave to develop for more expansive/heavier precip, with this setup it’s that type of thing where models will lose it than bring it back
 
As the high pressure moves out of the area, a sharp cold front will
approach and is expected to enter the forecast area on Tuesday
morning and move southeastward through Georgia throughout the day on
Tuesday. GFS and ECMWF solutions both show much of the low-level
moisture behind the frontal boundary, which suggests the potential
for some wintry weather where temperatures drop below freezing and
before the moisture clears out of the area. At this time, there are
still disagreements between model solutions so the specifics are
still somewhat difficult to discern. ECMWF now offers a wetter, but
slightly faster solution than the GFS, but both indicate that the
majority of the precipitation will pass through our area during the
day Tuesday. The possibility still exists of the cold front slowing
and becoming elongated and moving through the area on early
Wednesday as opposed to Tuesday, so I left some slight chance PoPs
in on Wednesday to account for this possibility.
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FFC
 
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