• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

Arcc said:
Just looking at the GFS, FV3 and Euro, I have a hunch there probably be something around the 31st.
Click to expand...
I can’t see what’s going on with my crappy maps but it looks like a 1010 Lp entering Baja?
 
hmmmm...this one is still so difficult for me to see where we get much, if anything. However....I do like seeing the models showing an increase at times. anyone have the H5 Vort maps for this from the DOC? please
 
Can someone post f132 from the Euro showing the dominant P-type? I'm curious to see what happens to the moisture as the system continues ESE. Based on the accumulation maps it must go poof! Thanks!
 
Timing of the front during the middle of the day + blocking of low-level cold air by the Appalachian mountains is what hurts the snow/sleet totals in the Carolinas, need to see a weak wave form along the front and throw more moisture back into the cold air to get something more substantial. North-central Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, & Tennessee plus the mountains of NC are obviously favored in a setup like this.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Timing of the front + blocking of low-level cold air by the Appalachian mountains is what hurts the snow/sleet totals in the Carolinas, need to see a weak wave form along the front and throw more moisture back into the cold air to get something more substantial.
Click to expand...
Is there a chance this shows up in the coming days on the models? I know it has been hinting at it on and off but has disappeared today.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Timing of the front during the middle of the day + blocking of low-level cold air by the Appalachian mountains is what hurts the snow/sleet totals in the Carolinas, need to see a weak wave form along the front and throw more moisture back into the cold air to get something more substantial. North-central Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, & Tennessee plus the mountains of NC are obviously favored in a setup like this.
Click to expand...

Folks in Georgia on this board would need this to happen also.

Maybe that or a more juiced lower level jet to enhance precip, like the 1/16-17 event last year. 1-3 along the i-85 corridor
 
Robert West said:
Is there a chance this shows up in the coming days on the models? I know it has been hinting at it on and off but has disappeared today.
Click to expand...

It's hard to predict because the models like the GFS & Euro have cold biases over areas w/ snow cover due to surface parameterizations in the models which could mean they're overdoing the snow here, and frontal wave if one formed would be weak & somewhat reliant on the distribution of diabatic heating within the overall frontal boundary which is hard to capture this far in advance or even more than 2-3 days out.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top