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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

If the western upstate north of 85 is lucky we may see an 1" out of this. The models seem as if they wanting to get closer to showing some for these areas.

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It looks like it will be moving through during the middle of the day in AL so that should help somewhat with the road conditions shouldn't it ?
 
Like maybe up to 5 GEFS members seem to want to bring that wave causing the early February system early I think based off the COD maps. Some are suppressed, but for those of us outside of the western parts of the SE, Tennessee, and NW Georgia, we want that idea to grow arms, legs, and a tail.
 
Outside of the immediate mountain areas, I would not look for much of anything east of the Appalachian chain. Could be a nice little storm for Tn, Ala, and N Mississippi though. Just not enough cold push coming over the mountains to help out in SC, NC and most of Ga. Unless a low forms on the frontal boundary (and I have seen no evidence of any energy doing that), the eastern areas of the board will have to wait until later and root the western areas on for a significant snow
 
Well FV3 Improved from previous runs precip heavier at start colder air gets there too and seems to hold together longer heading SE thru AL/GA meaning better totals thru Birmingham/ATL if that trend continues would be nice

00z
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6z
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12z
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SoutheastRidge said:
It looks like it will be moving through during the middle of the day in AL so that should help somewhat with the road conditions shouldn't it ?
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The temps. will be falling very rapidly as the snow is falling. So, the moisture on untreated roads the will freeze quickly.
 
WxWatch said:
The temps. will be falling very rapidly as the snow is falling. So, the moisture on untreated roads the will freeze quickly.
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But isn't there a bit of a lag between when temps fall below freezing and when roads start to freeze ? if it's 25 and snowing then yeah snow will start accumulating quickly, but if its 30 or so it's a lot more difficult unless its really coming down.
 
WxWatch said:
The temps. will be falling very rapidly as the snow is falling. So, the moisture on untreated roads the will freeze quickly.
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snowpocalypse atlanta says hey ;) point is will need to be monitored don't need a repeat if looks more like a sure thing
 
SoutheastRidge said:
But isn't there a bit of a lag between when temps fall below freezing and when roads start to freeze ? if it's 25 and snowing then yeah snow will start accumulating quickly, but if its 30 or so it's a lot more difficult unless its really coming down.
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IIRC correctly it was around 29 or 30 in ATL in Snow Jam 14 when the snow started, and it stuck immediately.
 
malak05 said:
snowpocalypse atlanta says hey ;) point is will need to be monitored don't need a repeat if looks more like a sure thing
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Could be, but doubtful. Before the snowjam everything was frozen by days of cold weather. Temps wetbulbing into the upper teens/low twenties helped as well.

Different setup here. Temps will not be as cold before and also roads will be wet from the rain beforehand. Problems could and probably will arise, but I wouldn't expect close to what the Snowjam did unless it really amps up totals.
 
malak05 said:
snowpocalypse atlanta says hey ;) point is will need to be monitored don't need a repeat if looks more like a sure thing
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While it's not going to be quite the same, in North Alabama where it's been colder and will be during this, I think the ground temps are already cold enough for there to be a 1/28/14 "like" scenario reoccurring. The only way it ends up not happening is if temps keep moderating. Then if it does, it will end up being the minor snow event that 1-2" should be. We've already seen a few here in the areas where it's possible say that they pretty much expect schools to shut down for the week if the cold snap does end up being really cold after the snow.
 
Ron Burgundy said:
IIRC correctly it was around 29 or 30 in ATL in Snow Jam 14 when the snow started, and it stuck immediately.
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It didn't get above 27 in 2014. Also, temps were not in the mid 40s the day it snowed either like it is forecast to be next Tuesday, so i'm sure roads were much colder then.
 
Ron Burgundy said:
IIRC correctly it was around 29 or 30 in ATL in Snow Jam 14 when the snow started, and it stuck immediately.
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It was 25 at my house when the snow started in January 2014. It was around 10 am I think when the first flakes started to fall. 30 probably won't cause a problem during the day. It would need to be pretty cold for it to stick to roads during the day. Now, if this thing slows down and snows at dusk, different story.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
While it's not going to be quite the same, in North Alabama where it's been colder and will be during this, I think the ground temps are already cold enough for there to be a 1/28/14 "like" scenario reoccurring. The only way it ends up not happening is if temps keep moderating. Then if it does, it will end up being the minor snow event that 1-2" should be. We've already seen a few here in the areas where it's possible say that they pretty much expect schools to shut down for the week if the cold snap does end up being really cold after the snow.
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School shut down for the week ? Temps every day next week are forecast to be above freezing during the day, and with temps above freezing next Wednesday under lots of sunshine, the roads should be fine by next Wednesday afternoon. It's not like the south is going into a deep freeze with days below freezing.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
School shut down for the week ? Temps every day next week are forecast to be above freezing during the day, and with temps above freezing next Wednesday under lots of sunshine, the roads should be fine by next Wednesday afternoon. It's not like the south is going into a deep freeze with days below freezing.
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Except the models are showing just that, several days below freezing lol smh
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Except the models are showing just that, several days below freezing lol smh
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Yep, I'm not even talking about most of Georgia, I'm talking about other areas. If the snap keeps moderating, then maybe it's a day or two, but to the extent it's looked like at times, some areas of south TN and far north AL do not get above freezing for a long time.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
School shut down for the week ? Temps every day next week are forecast to be above freezing during the day, and with temps above freezing next Wednesday under lots of sunshine, the roads should be fine by next Wednesday afternoon. It's not like the south is going into a deep freeze with days below freezing.
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Also, main roads would most likely be ok after Wednesday in spots but most secondary roads that are shaded would be hazardous for several days. Schools have to always be cautious when considering safety of students. 1-3 inches of snow followed by several days of 30s highs and teens for lows will lead to schools being cancelled for several days I believe.
 
The Weather Channel is forecasting 37 in Huntsville on Wed and 43 on Thurs. So unless the models trend colder it doesnt look like a prolonged deep freeze. Also, temps near 60 on Mon should help warm the roads some.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
The Weather Channel is forecasting 37 in Huntsville on Wed and 43 on Thurs. So unless the models trend colder it doesnt look like a prolonged deep freeze. Also, temps near 60 on Mon should help warm the roads some.
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don't ever go by what you see on there..come on man, the models have trended colder for a while now. GFS had Huntsville below freezing for 3 days
 
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