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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

NoSnowATL said:
He is right, snow showers seem like the most likely outcome for Metro Atlanta. We have the cold just no storm with real potential.


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Based on the time he posted that last night that was correct. Today will be a different story if the GEFS is right. Estimates are also lower with only 10:1 ratios as well.
 
FFC:
Big question with this system is whether the
cold air will spill into the state before the better precipitation
shifts east. Will likely see some mixing or changing over to snow on
the back side of the system, but confidence remains low at this time.
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ATLwxfan said:
556fdcc41cb13b19b5728d97b06b93cf.jpg



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As usual Glenn is talking out of both sides of his mouth. He posted this on FB yesterday.

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Arcc said:
Never assume that, you will never be disappointed if they arent, and surprised if they are.
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I'm not assuming. I'm going by bufkit data that has consistently shown as high as 20:1 here, and many periods of 15:1 or 16:1. Thank you though, for assuming I was assuming. This is also which Kuchera snow maps have been running higher than 10:1. I was only pointing out that that was only 10:1. No biggie.
 
I guess since it’s getting closer models are starting to realize some smaller mesoscale factors that could actually enhance snow rates like for example a lot of lift in the DGZ, some small instability allowing for more convective snow bands, no wonder I think it will just increase
 
Storm5 said:
Yep everyone just assumes they will higher . Horrible mistake


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wrong, wasn't assuming, I was looking at data
this is from the 6Z, showing 15-17:1 during the peak, on the 0Z it was up to 20:1
190129/1000Z 100 33011KT 32.1F SNOW 17:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.075 17:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
190129/1100Z 101 33012KT 29.7F SNOW 15:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.068 16:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33 100| 0| 0
190129/1200Z 102 33012KT 28.1F SNOW 11:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 15:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 0
 
Stormlover said:
wrong, wasn't assuming, I was looking at data
this is from the 6Z, showing 15-17:1, on the 0Z it was up to 20:1
190129/1000Z 100 33011KT 32.1F SNOW 17:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.075 17:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
190129/1100Z 101 33012KT 29.7F SNOW 15:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.068 16:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33 100| 0| 0
190129/1200Z 102 33012KT 28.1F SNOW 11:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 15:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 0
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I agree with you stormlover. Ain't nobody assuming. By Sunday night storm5 will be saying "I will be making a drive to HSV"
 
Ron Burgundy said:
As usual Glenn is talking out of both sides of his mouth. He posted this on FB yesterday.

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It is this kind of stuff by TV mets that create mass weather hysteria...Spann did this from time to time when I lived in Birmingham and then the crazies start coming out with IMBY questions.
Still convinced that Spann has investments in dairy & wheat futures.

But to the point above that @Myfrotho704_ made about the growth zone- What are lapse rates looking like? I'm not sure how much forcing will be around, but I think that might be a valid concern. Could we use the shorter range models to get an idea of how heavy this precip would be as the event draws closer?
 
There won't be a constant snow ratio during this event. The snow ratios are going to vary. You know how you get some hefty rainfall rates ahead of a cold front during the spring? This is going to be the same kind of thing, but with snow. So yeah, there will be some convective snow showers, which there's no way to know where exactly those convective snow showers will be. Perhaps the NAM or HRRR will be able to help determine that once the event is hours away.
 
That wave will slow the progression of the front also. Ideally, you want to front to make more progress before the low develops.
 
Hour 105, extremely heavy precip and temps in the low to mid 20s. I would imagine that is some heavy heavy snow for a few hours. Don’t have snowfall maps yet.


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ICON shows it raining at 24F in Wake County at 09z Wednesday. 24F! The Tropical Tidbits precip maps for the ICON model cannot seem to properly resolve the p-types especially since it doesn't have colors for mixed precip.
 
Parker said:
This could be a big dog incoming. Popping a low will change everything and make this a lot bigger deal if true.
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Not quite there but I'm liking the trend. If we get runs further south than the icon this could be a big storm with a low. Get the low south around Macon and this could be big for the northern half of the South. If we see the euro and FV3 jump south with the low and better energy, this could become much better. I believe someone mentioned earlier that with all the energy flying around models aren't having an easy time figuring out what to do with them. Watch the system that is coming through in the next few days and see how that trends. It might affect how this system turns out by setting a better playing field.
 
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