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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

An actual surface low in a prime spot to give much more snow.

This run is the only one that has actually excited me all the way over this way with this potential event thus far.
 
Winter Storm said:
Break (SOMETHING BIGGER) down for us Arcc. Give us a little detail!:D
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Well for instance the s/w over the Midwest is still positive and digging before it phases with all the energy in the upper midwest. Without a phase or with a later phase, the s/w could dig into the Gulf and probably fire up a low pressure with could really add to the character of the system itself. Would probably not benefit most of us, but it could the Carolinas. I do remember some of the ensembles showing the second wave hitting these areas. Or does the wave flatten out and lead to a solution that the 18z FV3 shown.

The key is there is still a ton of spread with lots of moving parts and solutions.
 
Morristown is biting and they are usually very conservative


Usually conservative Morristown is biting

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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785 FXUS64 KMRX 250829 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 329 AM EST Fri Jan 25 2019 .
LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)The main weather feature of interest will be a stronger short-wave moving southeast from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes/lower Ohio Valley late Monday through Tuesday. The northern stream wave will phase with a southern stream jet over the lower Mississippi River Valley pulling moisture northeastward into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. A strong arctic front will sweep through the region sometime Tuesday. The GFS is the fast and pulls the front into the area by 12Z, while the ECMWF is slower and more toward 18Z. Either way the precipitation will likely begin as rain (rain/snow higher terrain), but quickly transition to snow. Strong jet dynamics with this short-wave with deep lift for about 6 hours. Snow accumulations are looking more likely with this system, even across the Tennessee Valley. Since this system is several days away, snowfall forecast will likely change, but currently 2 to 4 inches is possible most locations with higher amounts across the higher terrain. Additional light snowfall is possible Tuesday night. For mid to late week, a cold arctic high will build into the southern Appalachians with very cold temperatures building into the region. Dangerous wind chills will be a concern. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 38 23 46 32 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 22 43 31 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 35 21 42 31 / 10 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 18 39 26 / 10 10 0 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ CD/DH

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FV3 is a outliner for now, Gfs/euro/icon Much more moisture to work with
 
Still plenty of time to get these to swing into a big dog for chunk of SE.... lil disappointed in the 00z Euro run for GA but it was only one run
 
Lynsy said:
Yeah FV3 is super dry.
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It is much drier than other models. What the FV3 shows could be right though. I feel like the moisture will fall apart as it progresses east due to the mountains, and much drier air filtering in. It's a clipper type system, which these type of systems can bring a good amount of snow for some, some will get very little. I say the snowfall amounts will average 1-3" typical of these type of systems.
 
malak05 said:
Still plenty of time to get these to swing into a big dog for chunk of SE.... lil disappointed in the 00z Euro run for GA but it was only one run
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I was a little more encouraged, based on the moisture push. Might need help with temps if you’re wanting a high ratio event like last year, but I think the chances of flakes flying are looking good.
 
BMX favoring the snowier GFS solution:

The system approaching from the northwest on Monday night will beassociated with a rather cold airmass surging southward through the Plains and Midwest, and the temperature gradient is expected to strengthen along the cold front as it moves into Northwest Alabama early Tuesday morning. West-southwest 850-500mb should
result in quality moisture advection, and post-frontal precipitation is likely to break out with the aid of isentropic lift and an approaching upper-level jet max. Operational and
ensemble guidance are in relatively good agreement with this scenario, which may feature a transition from rain to snow on
Tuesday morning especially along and north of I-20. The ECMWF may be placing too much emphasis on digging the very southern end of
the trough. This would result in a more neutral tilt as the trough passes through Alabama and less overlap of cold air with precipitation. For this forecast package the positively-tilted and
snowier GFS solution is favored, and light accumulations appear possible across our northwestern counties as temperatures plunge
into the upper 20s. Dry conditions should return for Tuesday night through Thursday with the potential for temperatures falling into
the teens on Wednesday morning and/or Thursday morning for a good portion of the forecast area.
 
......
Uncle Nasty said:
Morristown is biting and they are usually very conservative
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Yep, they're thinking 2-4 most locations, with more in the mountains. Probably 1-2 for CHA proper. But with the temps, it wont matter if it's 1 or 4, schools will likely be closed Tuesday-Friday. Local mets on board as well.
 
cyclogent said:
......


Yep, they're thinking 2-4 most locations, with more in the mountains. Probably 1-2 for CHA proper. But with the temps, it wont matter if it's 1 or 4, schools will likely be closed Tuesday-Friday. Local mets on board as well.
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You are correct Morristown always last to respond
 
As accu35 said definite increase from 00z to 6z GEFS. There must of been some big hit(s) in the ensemble members. I'll check and edit it in this post.

OjHtQZ9.png


MFgs67Q.png


EDIT: Looks like I was right, there were quite a few widespread hits that I don't think would disappoint most of us on this board.
kcii7Rd.png
 
Weatherlover92 said:
As accu35 said definite increase from 00z to 6z GEFS. There must of been some big hit(s) in the ensemble members. I'll check and edit it in this post.

OjHtQZ9.png


MFgs67Q.png


EDIT: Looks like I was right, there were quite a few widespread hits that I don't think would disappoint most of us on this board.
kcii7Rd.png
Click to expand...
20 for 20 and 12 for 20 for 2"+ looking even better for here and ATL. Models are looking wetter and that's probably what this run picked up on. If this trend keeps up we may see another increase. I'm curious how these larger members are set up too. Looks to me the system resembles more of a southern slider than a frontal passage.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
It's happening for sure now, lock it in!
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Hard for me to disagree with ol' Glenn at the present time with regard to next week.

However, based on how inconsistent the models have been in the long range, I wouldn't discount anything else popping up later on. There doesn't seem to be any rhyme or reason to this winter thus far.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
As accu35 said definite increase from 00z to 6z GEFS. There must of been some big hit(s) in the ensemble members. I'll check and edit it in this post.

OjHtQZ9.png


MFgs67Q.png


EDIT: Looks like I was right, there were quite a few widespread hits that I don't think would disappoint most of us on this board.
kcii7Rd.png
Click to expand...

I bet if you look at time frames, that is two separate hits. That dry band between the two snow bands make me think so. The FV3 was closer to another hit after the front.
 
ForsythSnow said:
20 for 20 and 12 for 20 for 2"+ looking even better for here and ATL. Models are looking wetter and that's probably what this run picked up on. If this trend keeps up we may see another increase. I'm curious how these larger members are set up too. Looks to me the system resembles more of a southern slider than a frontal passage.
Click to expand...

Looking at a couple of the ensemble members, it looks like some go full out Miller A Gulf Storm. Particularly member 12 and 18,18 doesn't end the wintry precip across the entire SE region until Friday morning! So maybe te GEFS is gaining steam on a potential secondary low developing?
 
Arcc said:
I bet if you look at time frames, that is two separate hits. That dry band between the two snow bands make me think so. The FV3 was closer to another hit after the front.
Click to expand...
Still looked great with first hit
 
Weatherlover92 said:
Looking at a couple of the ensemble members, it looks like some go full out Miller A Gulf Storm. Particularly member 12 and 18,18 doesn't end the wintry precip across the entire SE region until Friday morning! So maybe te GEFS is gaining steam on a potential secondary low developing?
Click to expand...

Folks further east (like us) would really enjoy that. Would like to see more than 2 members start keying in on that solution. Would also be nice to see a major operational run start hinting more at that like the 0z Doc run earlier.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
Looking at a couple of the ensemble members, it looks like some go full out Miller A Gulf Storm. Particularly member 12 and 18,18 doesn't end the wintry precip across the entire SE region until Friday morning! So maybe te GEFS is gaining steam on a potential secondary low developing?
Click to expand...
I wonder if the secondary low could speed up little faster to joint into one large storm? I know the second wave is a day away from the first one, so it would have to speed up fast.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
As accu35 said definite increase from 00z to 6z GEFS. There must of been some big hit(s) in the ensemble members. I'll check and edit it in this post.

OjHtQZ9.png


MFgs67Q.png


EDIT: Looks like I was right, there were quite a few widespread hits that I don't think would disappoint most of us on this board.
kcii7Rd.png
Click to expand...
and that's only 10:1..ratios are going to be higher
 
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