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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

CMC:
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Hmmm, not showing anything frozen for NC this time. Or does it continue after the 30th for NC?
 
Apps delay CAA so it snows at a marginal temp this run, will change but that’s why there’s barely Accum east of the apps
 
Well seems to me the models are trending drier. Towards the Euro. If Euro still stays course. I would say this threat is slowly dying.
 
Why in the world as we get closer to each snowstorm do the storms slowly die, you would think odds are that one storm would pan out.
 
It actually wouldn't surprise me if this ends up getting completely strung out at some point, on other models I've seen the PV press push at this wave until it strings out and while this was actually pretty good for parts of Alabama, I saw the same on this run, while I don't have good maps on the FV3, I think that's what happened there too on 12z. The hope is it provides something before the PV scours it out.

Speaking of which, man is it cold on this GFS run.
 
FV3 not looking nearly as good ast 00z last night. It still has some snow in ms/al. but a lot of it has dried up in AL compared. GA, NC, SC dry... with a late flizzard in the Eastern sections.
 
Yeah, speaking of that FV3 run...

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Good for much of Tennessee, northern Louisiana and a small part of Mississippi, solid for central/south Alabama, decrease everywhere else.
 
Here's the Kuchera map from the gfs. These are better than the 10:1 maps due to the cold air aloft. We rarely see high ratio snow in the south, but this is one time where we could. Put this with the fact that it's going to stay cold for a while, this could be a more impactful event for those who get snow. West of the Apps is the favored area in this setup.
1548347840073.png
 
Guess there is time for it to improve, but those runs of the GFS and FV3 look worse than previous ones for NC. Went from 3 inches to a dusting here.
 
This has the chance to be a high impactful event for N. AL, Tenn, and N.MS, due to the extreme cold and any type of frozen precip. Rain-sleet- snow for most will cause travel issues. Cold will keep it around for a while
 
Brick Tamland said:
Guess there is tome for it to improve, but those runs of the GFS and FV3 look worse than previous ones for NC. Went from 3 inches to a dusting here.
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Really this was never a NC event to begin with. It was a MS, TN, AL, and some GA event with maybe some to the mountains. If you get anything it would be a bonus for you.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Really this was never a NC event to begin with. It was a MS, TN, AL, and some GA event with maybe some to the mountains. If you get anything it would be a bonus for you.
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Yeah, the best hope is for the front to slow down and develop a wave of enhanced precip that's shown on some runs. Other than that, maybe a token dusting. Fine with me.
 
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