12z gefs will probably look at little bit better
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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
Ok, I see exactly what you are saying now. Thank you
GeorgiaGirl
Member
So on the Ukie the low at the western tip of Cuba then there's a 986 that's pretty wound up heading up the coast.
snowlover91
Member
UK has a bomb. Hard to tell in between 24 hour panels what it does, maybe someone with better maps can share some insight?
Snowflowxxl
Member
Another look...
Thor
Member
Seems to be more Lows concentrated in North Florida this time
Just looked on cod met, and gefs looks way better when it comes to low placement, more members are now north, along with the precip field, still struggling with cold air tho but we have time to work that out
RollTide18
Member
Yep, I think we should start seeing a northward trend shortly.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Honestly looks like the FV3 tries at 120 on the better maps but then a piece of the southern energy simply just breaks off with the northern energy and it's a swing and a miss.
snowlover91
Member
Here's the UK 6 hour panel, a 983mb bomb off the NC coast and precip as far inland as Raleigh.
Just saw the Z500hunnit for the fv3 and like y’all said it was sooo close to phasing, man
Round Oak Weather
Member
The trends look better I think in the nxt day or so the models will show a phase but if it’s correct or not who know
snowlover91
Member
Summary of runs so far.
FV3 - Close to phasing but misses and stays suppressed. Better run than the 6z was.
GFS - Nice 3 run north trend, close to phasing like FV3 and has a late phase off the coast but too far OTS. Good changes.
UK - Nice phase that bombs to low 980s off the NC coast with light qpf as far west as Raleigh. Looks fairly similar to last night's 00z run.
CMC - Swing and a miss, stays suppressed/offshore.
ICON - Suppressed.
FV3 - Close to phasing but misses and stays suppressed. Better run than the 6z was.
GFS - Nice 3 run north trend, close to phasing like FV3 and has a late phase off the coast but too far OTS. Good changes.
UK - Nice phase that bombs to low 980s off the NC coast with light qpf as far west as Raleigh. Looks fairly similar to last night's 00z run.
CMC - Swing and a miss, stays suppressed/offshore.
ICON - Suppressed.
2M temps are above freezing from RDU South and East so there is no snow accumulating per the UKMET.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Ouch...
snowlover91
Member
Thanks for posting those UK panels! Looks like verbatim the UK would be a light snow event for Eastern NC with maybe some minor accumulations. Any quicker with the turn north and closer to the coast would change this significantly.
snowlover91
Member
Isn't it a bit ironic that the Euro is shifting south while the GFS has shifted north? Quite a bit of model chaos still with anything from a stronger system near the coast (UK) to a near miss (FV3/GFS) to a suppressed mess (Euro/ICON).
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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It won’t change the heat over NC!
STORM6
Member
Getting about that time to close thread. Move to next week
Euro may be close for NC.
tennessee storm
Member
Euro looks good next. Week thus far
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Ha the Euro turns into a 977 bomb around Maine.
Fountainguy97
Member
Seems like it. Maybe open a “here comes Spring” thread lol
This one looks a mess at 5H. It’s still possible this develops but there are a lot of different players moving around at the 5H level. Would take absolute perfection to get a storm out of this.
snowlover91
Member
As usual it takes good timing of both pieces of energy to make this work. Still a variety of options on the table right now, we have everything from a stronger storm like the UK shows to a suppressed system. Models haven't really honed in on any one solution yet which leaves this open for future adjustments. GFS and FV3 were close to something pretty good.
I'm not giving up on this system yet.
Fountainguy97
Member
Of all the systems so far this winter this is definitely the one I would hang my hat on and go down with the ship. It’s a classic look for a large southeast snow storm IF we can just get the right timing.
snowlover91
Member
Same here, there are so many moving pieces here and the PV shifting north some, changes in timing of the southern/northern waves and things like that will shift around at this stage. Usually those changes lead to a stronger system and NW shift, we will see if that holds true this time as well. If there were ever a time to hope for the NW shift it would be with this storm. With models so mixed right now and ensembles members as well that increases my confidence that we will continue seeing changes for another few days until they begin to figure it all out.
ATLwxfan
Member
I’m with you. A small shift can make a huge difference. How many times have we seen shifts in a 48 hr time frame? Remember Dec 2017 snuck up on us. Today’s 18z run will be interesting.
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Stormlover
Member
Euro has two hits for us next week....
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Where is us?
Jessy89
Member
I assume not at are houses either. But Atlanta east and north look good
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Can someone post the euro and what it’s showing? Two hits? For who???
GeorgiaGirl
Member
First one is mainly good for the western SE as far as I can tell.
Second one was probably about to hit the triad in NC at hr 240 as the run ends but...day 10 with all models struggling with what's happening this week.
Stormlover
Member
RollTide18
Member
I still believe things can trend in the right direction
Me too. This is one of those systems where the models have the storm, loses the storm for a couple of runs, and the models bring back the storm.
snowlover91
Member
ICON threw in a new look, it took our energy and stalled it out over the California coast then completely stretched and sheared it out into nothing.
snowlover91
Member
This GFS run could be interesting. Energy entering the US much stronger and looks healthier. PV is lifting north a little. Hmmm..
Round Oak Weather
Member
Maybe this is the start of that trend we want?
That’s good to hear.