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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

ForsythSnow said:
Well in that case.
Week 3. Zonal flow and average
Week 4. A literal torch and much above normal
Week 5. Above normal by some
Week 6. Below normal but not by much
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Well, you kind of got week 6 right at least.
 
SD said:
Happy bday to me :(
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Looks toasty
 
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ForsythSnow said:
I don't quite unless you give a year. Sounds like hype for a rainstorm.
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Oh man it was awesome models had like 24+ in places. As it got closer the wave got flatter and weaker and eventually it ended up as a 1012 near tampa

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I'm usually pretty cautiously optimistic with these potential winter storm setups, but for whatever reason, I'm not feelin' it for this weekend. I think with the weekend storm I just get leery of any time we have to depend on phasing of any kind here. I know it can work, iirc 12/25/2010 had a partial phase. GA is like the geographical textbook definition of a state that's stuck between a rock and a hard place. If a phase occurs too far west were screwed, if it happens too far east, we likely get dry slotted and still screwed. I think at the end of the day, our Carolina folks will do well with this storm, but I have a big ? for anyone west of them. I know this post comes off as whining (hence why it's here), but I personally don't like these kind of setups for a GA snow producer. I rather roll the dice on an overrunning event with a nice HP anchored over NY/PA bleeding fresh, arctic air along the eastern side of the Apps.

Long story short, my scapegoat for our lack of wintry weather is Glenn Burns. He obviously screwed us for calling for a brutal winter last month. lmao
 
I'm pretty sure it was 2009 as it was around when I got started on weather forums. I don't remember all the details but whew, it was showing a big time storm that just poofed.

And lol, I love this picture so much, if we swing and miss on these next two possible time periods completely this might be my next avatar, although it'd be copycatting:

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Weatherlover92 said:
I'm usually pretty cautiously optimistic with these potential winter storm setups, but for whatever reason, I'm not feelin' it for this weekend. I think with the weekend storm I just get leery of any time we have to depend on phasing of any kind here. I know it can work, iirc 12/25/2010 had a partial phase. GA is like the geographical textbook definition of a state that's stuck between a rock and a hard place. If a phase occurs too far west were screwed, if it happens too far east, we likely get dry slotted and still screwed. I think at the end of the day, our Carolina folks will do well with this storm, but I have a big ? for anyone west of them. I know this post comes off as whining (hence why it's here), but I personally don't like these kind of setups for a GA snow producer. I rather roll the dice on an overrunning event with a nice HP anchored over NY/PA bleeding fresh, arctic air along the eastern side of the Apps.

Long story short, my scapegoat for our lack of wintry weather is Glenn Burns. He obviously screwed us for calling for a brutal winter last month. lmao
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1993 was the very rare time a phase(in fact a triple phase) occured and benefited GA where Atlanta and NW GA got hit with the CCB deformation band(the type of snows NYC and Boston get during their Nor'easters). It takes a very rare set of circumstances to occur. It's why Atlanta doesn't have any 12+ inch snowstorms on record where as even places like Macon do. Atlanta is in a poor position where it doesn't benefit from early phasers or phasers that occur in the Atlantic and it can't get rich enough moisture from the gulf without warming the mid-levels too much. We can get a bunch of small-moderate events, but never that grand slam event where Atlanta is sitting in knee deep snow.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I'm pretty sure it was 2009 as it was around when I got started on weather forums. I don't remember all the details but whew, it was showing a big time storm that just poofed.

And lol, I love this picture so much, if we swing and miss on these next two possible time periods completely this might be my next avatar, although it'd be copycatting:

View attachment 12433
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I sure you are right. That was a bad year all together for central Bama. Storms did hit but usu to far north or to far south for mby that year. To bad TW crashed. Lost a lot of great threads and memories there.
 
Considering so many tv mets will base forecasts off the gfs, can you imagine how much different their conversations would be right now were it not for the gov't shutdown? Isn't it weird none of them, none I've seen anyway, mention the fv3......are they not allowed too?

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One of the OP runs are gonna show a complete paste job similar to what the Euro ensembles showed yesterday, within the next few days.
 
RollTide18 said:
One of the OP runs are gonna show a complete paste job similar to what the Euro ensembles showed yesterday, within the next few days.
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FV3 has waffled between wide right and a pasting, I kinda have a feeling, since I'm trying to keep things tempered (though Chris is all in and Arcc throwing around a 2/12/10 like scenario isn't helping!) that the FV3 is going to have another big run at 0z, outside of eastern SC and part of NC.
 
Glenn burns actually irritates me, this dude said only a chance for snow flurries but other than that wait till feb, I’m sorry but he got me ----** up, i see why storm5 would IP ban him
 
LovingGulfLows said:
1993 was the very rare time a phase(in fact a triple phase) occured and benefited GA where Atlanta and NW GA got hit with the CCB deformation band(the type of snows NYC and Boston get during their Nor'easters). It takes a very rare set of circumstances to occur. It's why Atlanta doesn't have any 12+ inch snowstorms on record where as even places like Macon do. Atlanta is in a poor position where it doesn't benefit from early phasers or phasers that occur in the Atlantic and it can't get rich enough moisture from the gulf without warming the mid-levels too much. We can get a bunch of small-moderate events, but never that grand slam event where Atlanta is sitting in knee deep snow.
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Yeah, I didn't want to mention Superstorm '93 since like you said it's such a very rare setup with a triple phase. Even in that storm the southside where the airport is got royally screwed only getting 4 inches, whereas the northside did get 12+ inches. Since you brought it up it really is mind blowing that the biggest snowfall and only double digit snowfall (10 inches) recorded for Atlanta occurred nearly 80 years ago (January 1940) and yet Columbus, Macon, Dublin, and Augusta that average less snowfall than we do in an average winter season have all had 12+ inch snowfalls in years past.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Glenn burns actually irritates me, this dude said only a chance for snow flurries but other than that wait till feb, I’m sorry but he got me ----** up, i see why storm5 would IP ban him
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He is literally the worst. There is a special place in the basement of the news studio for him and those of his ilk.


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GeorgiaGirl said:
FV3 has waffled between wide right and a pasting, I kinda have a feeling, since I'm trying to keep things tempered (though Chris is all in and Arcc throwing around a 2/12/10 like scenario isn't helping!) that the FV3 is going to have another big run at 0z, outside of eastern SC and part of NC.
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Yeah I mean this brings back so many memories of February 2010, I remember being 12 year old on Talkweather when the GFS sent the low to Cuba 4 or 5 days before the event and everyone was just distraught.
 
Sure would be nice to know who deleted my last post in the storm thread and why.
 
PEA_RIDGE said:
FROM SPANN THE MAN ON THE ALAMBAMAWX.COM

RAIN RETURNS: Clouds move into the state tomorrow ahead of the next weather system to the west, and rain becomes widespread during the day Wednesday. The air will be stable, so there is no threat of severe storms, and probably little thunder. Rain amounts will be around 1/2 inch, with isolated heavier totals. Colder air begins to flow into the state late Wednesday night, and there is a chance a few snow flurries could develop from around midnight Wednesday night through daybreak Thursday, but for now we expect no accumulation or impact.
The sky becomes partly to mostly sunny Thursday with a high in the 40s. Dry, chilly weather continues on Friday with a partly sunny sky and highs mostly in the low to mid 40s.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday looks dry and a bit warmer with temperatures possibly edging up into the 50s thanks to a good supply of sunshine. An “Alberta Clipper” type system will bring some clouds into the state late Saturday night and Sunday, and it could squeeze out a little light rain. But new model guidance continues to trend drier, and we might even get away with dry conditions Sunday. The high Sunday will be in the 45-50 degree range with more clouds than sun.
NEXT WEEK: Monday will be dry, then another clipper type system will bring a chance of some light rain, or maybe a little light snow, Tuesday and Tuesday night. Much colder air will follow the clipper on Wednesday; looks like we won’t get out of the 30s with a brisk north wind.
We note there is no evidence at this point of any disruptive snow or ice event for Alabama over the next 7 days, although a few flurries are possible late Wednesday night. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.
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Doesn't matter if all the models shows a blizzard coming, he would find the one model that shows nothing and go with it.
 
RollTide18 said:
Yeah I mean this brings back so many memories of February 2010, I remember being 12 year old on Talkweather when the GFS sent the low to Cuba 4 or 5 days before the event and everyone was just distraught.
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Same thing happened with the a Christmas 2010 storm. It came back 72 hours out.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Sure would be nice to know who deleted my last post in the storm thread and why.
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Guessing it was one of the fine moderators and/or admin who are trying to keep the storm threads from getting all bantery.
 
Maybe I should just post everything here, even if it is on topic, and just discuss things with 20 people instead of 100. That sounds great.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Some consistency would be good.
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Have you ever had a post moved or deleted and it didn’t make you ill? I just ask because I am on the staff and have had some of mine moved. Have you seen any posts of me griping about it? There’s no intent to upset anyone....just an effort to minimize some of the sidebar stuff. I didn’t see this particular one, so I don’t know. Please don’t get mad about it.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Some consistency would be good.
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Brick Tamland said:
Maybe I should just post everything here, even if it is on topic, and just discuss things with 20 people instead of 100. That sounds great.
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Well brick the main reason the post was deleted was because I felt like it was going to create a arguement between you and 2 other posters.

Plus, just to be honest you have said a 1,000 times that the FV3 looks like the FV3 in December. You have said that like every 6 hours when the model runs. That kinda gets old and the people gets the point. I know you want to be a part of the conversation but sometimes you have to post something new.

Plus everytime we delete a post you have to challenge all the mods and wonder why.

Why can’t you just accept it as it is and move on??? Other poster don’t do this. The other mods and me have deleted a lot other post then just yours and they don’t say a thing. ??????
 
Rain Cold said:
Have you ever had a post moved or deleted and it didn’t make you ill? I just ask because I am on the staff and have had some of mine moved. Have you seen any posts of me griping about it? There’s no intent to upset anyone....just an effort to minimize some of the sidebar stuff. I didn’t see this particular one, so I don’t know. Please don’t get mad about it.
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He has a point. I had a post deleted with no notification agreeing that the FV3 has been the best performer this winter. Then you go through the thread right now and find ten more posts that are far more off-topic than that, so no, there is zero consistency. It begs the question of who should be moderating who. Honestly, in my opinion, the meteorologists should be the mods determining what does and doesn't belong in these threads - at least the storm-related ones. Or at least have a say in the matter if they want one.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Glenn burns actually irritates me, this dude said only a chance for snow flurries but other than that wait till feb, I’m sorry but he got me ----** up, i see why storm5 would IP ban him
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Glenn is a pro. He has been a met for like 40 years. He knows what he's talking about.
 
1300m said:
He has a point. I had a post deleted with no notification agreeing that the FV3 has been the best performer this winter. Then you go through the thread right now and find ten more posts that are far more off-topic than that, so no, there is zero consistency. It begs the question of who should be moderating who. Honestly, in my opinion, the meteorologists should be the mods determining what does and doesn't belong in these threads - at least the storm-related ones. Or at least have a say in the matter if they want one.
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I think having meteorologists on staff would be a welcome addition. I always thought that most wouldn’t have the time or inclination to do the job. Now that I think of it, there may be a few Mets in American that are mods. None in the SE forum though.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Glenn burns actually irritates me, this dude said only a chance for snow flurries but other than that wait till feb, I’m sorry but he got me ----** up, i see why storm5 would IP ban him
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Honestly he is playing it safe and I don't blame him. The storm is so far out flurries are what the models depict at the moment. If the trends begin to show a majority of large ATL hits, he will say that it's being monitored and there is a chance.
 
true but there could be all model agreement on a snowstorm and he’d still stay conservative, he is way more conservative then brad p
 
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