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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

Snowflowxxl said:
Brick is a great poster who is speaking truth. Y’all leave him alone.
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??‍♂️??‍♂️ How much is brick paying you????

Yes, Brick can be a great poster. But he doesnt like to listen to the professionals meteorologist in here and learn. If he did listen to them and learn what they are saying. He could be one of the top 5 or 10 poster in here. ?
 
metwannabe said:
I did about 13 years ago.... So I had a bulging disc issue, went to a chiropractic (he did an MRI), saw the disc, did adjustments for a few months and the pain went away completely. And then a couple years later out of nowhere it was back, brutal, sciatic nerve pain so intense I could barely press in the clutch on my pickup truck. I went back to the same chiropractic, he felt certain it was the same issue and adjustments would work...... they didn't. After months of excruciating pain I talked him into doing another MRI, which showed a portion of my disc (L4-L5 region) completely separated from the spine (ruptured), lodged next to the nerve, not that uncommon but it was a section about the size of a quarter and was so obvious even to an untrained eye on the image. He immediately referred me to a surgeon who was all excited because he had never seen anything quite like it Lol.... long story short (too late I know). He removed the herniated disc, cleaned out the disc..... 13 years and 7 marathons (full 26.2 mile marathons) later I'd say it was successful. I did have about an 8 week recovery period afterward but the next day I was walking and by the end of the 8 weeks I was walking over 2 miles. Can't even see the scar anymore... I did lose some muscle tissue in my calf prior to surgery due to the length of time it was impinging the nerve and that resulted in daily leg cramps for almost 2 years following the surgery in that leg. But no issues now and all of that is a distant memory. Good luck, I don't think you will regret the procedure!
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Dang/wow!!! Yea I have the numbness go down my legs also. I really hope that makes that go away also. Thank you!!
 
Kylo said:
Don’t kid yourself. The pattern preceding the big Dec event where you got 10” was very favorable. We were coming off an extended -NAO, we had a big 50/50 low and western ridge. Those are all ingredients we need to get big snow events. We also had favorable MJO phase. Next 2 weeks isn’t as favorable....after that we will see.

These were the temps before the event.

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You are wasting your time.
 
Brick Tamland said:
All I have said is we are not seeing anything yet as far as a legit threat on the models even though we are going into a pattern that is supposed to be better than normal for producing winter storms. Hopefully, the ensembles are onto something and we will have some legit threats to track soon and things work out.
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You always say our best storms show up out of nowhere. Which is it bro?
 
Kylo said:
I do think we will need the MJO on our side and hopefully we can take a trip through 7-8-1.

View attachment 11341

Phase 5/6 shows Aleutian ridge and western trough, which is what GEFS is showing towards end of its run. If the blocking is legit then warmth will obviously be muted.

View attachment 11342
JanENMJOphase6gt1500mb.gif


But phase 7-8-1 are great for Feb. Bring it on!


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Lol there ain't no way we're spending any appreciable MJO time this winter over on the left side there. We're going to have to find another way to score. Maybe an unexpected pole shift or a quick Yellowstone eruption.
 
The models have backed off on the severity of the cold for the 1/20-21 time frame. Its still going to be our coldest air of the season, but my local NWS (Memphis) has revised temps upward almost 10 degrees since yesterday. I don't know what the next 2-3 weeks hold, but anyone is foolish to get disappointed or let down when an extreme weather event doesn't unfold as modeled 10 days out. Or even 7 days out. We live in the south. There have been some really extreme looks on operational runs and even on some ENS runs lately for severe cold in the next couple of weeks. Can it reach sub zero in the south? Of course. is it likely in any given season? Not at all. Not even when the models are showing it on day 12. They frequently moderate. Modeling winter weather is so difficult in the south because it's almost always a close call. Just sayin we'd all do well to NEVER, EVER get our hopes up on any particular storm beyond about 5 days. Otherwise, you're going to be whining. Life's pretty good when we have time to be on an internet forum complaining that it didn't snow at my house.
 
Rain Cold said:
Lol there ain't no way we're spending any appreciable MJO time this winter over on the left side there. We're going to have to find another way to score. Maybe an unexpected pole shift or a quick Yellowstone eruption.
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Your MJO post from a couple of days ago should be pinned. Because come March we are going to look back and ask how did it go so wrong. Unfavorable tropics/pacific usually rule.

Though totally expect to see snow again mid/late Feb, weenie wishing the MJO continues on to 7-8-1.
 
NWTENN said:
The models have backed off on the severity of the cold for the 1/20-21 time frame. Its still going to be our coldest air of the season, but my local NWS (Memphis) has revised temps upward almost 10 degrees since yesterday. I don't know what the next 2-3 weeks hold, but anyone is foolish to get disappointed or let down when an extreme weather event doesn't unfold as modeled 10 days out. Or even 7 days out. We live in the south. There have been some really extreme looks on operational runs and even on some ENS runs lately for severe cold in the next couple of weeks. Can it reach sub zero in the south? Of course. is it likely in any given season? Not at all. Not even when the models are showing it on day 12. They frequently moderate. Modeling winter weather is so difficult in the south because it's almost always a close call. Just sayin we'd all do well to NEVER, EVER get our hopes up on any particular storm beyond about 5 days. Otherwise, you're going to be whining. Life's pretty good when we have time to be on an internet forum complaining that it didn't snow at my house.
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Good post!

I wish models had a warm bias in the extended. But they don't. You see far more historic cold patterns that don't pan out than warm patterns that don't pan out. You can show me all kinds of pretty ensembles, SSW charts, solar progs, indexes of choice, MJOs, operational models, whatever that are in 100% agreement with the coldest weather ever, and I will take the opposite bet and win 99.9% of the time. It's just the way it works.

It's going to get cold. Historically so, I really doubt it. But hopefully it is enough to allow the things that give us snow to combine to do so. I think it will happen, but I don't think eastern sections of the SE will see much of anything before Feb. I could be wrong, but that's my prediction.
 
I'm having serious thoughts about packing my ---- up and going home from work and never coming back. Im working 7am-1030/11 pm and not sleeping bc i am so stressed. Its not worth it

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