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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

FROM SPANN THE MAN ON THE ALAMBAMAWX.COM

RAIN RETURNS: Clouds move into the state tomorrow ahead of the next weather system to the west, and rain becomes widespread during the day Wednesday. The air will be stable, so there is no threat of severe storms, and probably little thunder. Rain amounts will be around 1/2 inch, with isolated heavier totals. Colder air begins to flow into the state late Wednesday night, and there is a chance a few snow flurries could develop from around midnight Wednesday night through daybreak Thursday, but for now we expect no accumulation or impact.
The sky becomes partly to mostly sunny Thursday with a high in the 40s. Dry, chilly weather continues on Friday with a partly sunny sky and highs mostly in the low to mid 40s.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday looks dry and a bit warmer with temperatures possibly edging up into the 50s thanks to a good supply of sunshine. An “Alberta Clipper” type system will bring some clouds into the state late Saturday night and Sunday, and it could squeeze out a little light rain. But new model guidance continues to trend drier, and we might even get away with dry conditions Sunday. The high Sunday will be in the 45-50 degree range with more clouds than sun.
NEXT WEEK: Monday will be dry, then another clipper type system will bring a chance of some light rain, or maybe a little light snow, Tuesday and Tuesday night. Much colder air will follow the clipper on Wednesday; looks like we won’t get out of the 30s with a brisk north wind.
We note there is no evidence at this point of any disruptive snow or ice event for Alabama over the next 7 days, although a few flurries are possible late Wednesday night. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.
 
Storm5 said:
Way too much PV press
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Another thing to remember is that most of the time we see that PV trend north or east with time. We shall see if that west or SW trend continues.
 
So I have heard the superstorm of 93 thrown out as a possibility here. Can someone help me understand what the possibilities of that happening are? If a real possibility why? Thanks!


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whatalife said:
So I have heard the superstorm of 93 thrown out as a possibility here. Can someone help me understand what the possibilities of that happening are? If a real possibility why? Thanks!


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I feel like that's thrown out every winter. I honestly wouldn't take it seriously at the moment.
 
It’s not going to cut up the apps. That’s what we know for sure. Because no model is showing a app runner. Now I still hope there a nw trend


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whatalife said:
So I have heard the superstorm of 93 thrown out as a possibility here. Can someone help me understand what the possibilities of that happening are? If a real possibility why? Thanks!


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LovingGulfLows said:
I feel like that's thrown out every winter. I honestly wouldn't take it seriously at the moment.
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Yeah I agree. While Bastardi is hyping it up due to H5 similarities, it keep shifting around. I think there is in some form a light chance, like 5% of being a massive storm like that, it's unlikely. And 5% may be very generous. The FV3 has a good phase going on that lead to what it showed at 18Z.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah I agree. While Bastardi is hyping it up due to H5 similarities, it keep shifting around. I think there is in some form a light chance, like 5% of being a massive storm like that, it's unlikely. And 5% may be very generous. The FV3 has a good phase going on that lead to what it showed at 18Z.
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Just curious and I don’t think the odds are very high either. I just remember being on the interstate in GA when it hit. It was amazing and I think it scared the H&$$ out of my dad


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Kylo said:
18z EPS members. Looks a little better than 12z
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Those lows moving across C or S FL sure do look most inviting. Unfortunately, cold enough air is very much in question as evidenced by the operational run and the lack of Arctic high pressure anywhere nearby on
this 18Z EPS mean map to work in tandem with this. Ideally, I’d like to see a high moving from the Plains to the Ohio Valley moving eastward as this low comes across. Unfortunately, this scenario may be hard to come by unless the northern stream gets more involved.
 
whatalife said:
So I have heard the superstorm of 93 thrown out as a possibility here. Can someone help me understand what the possibilities of that happening are? If a real possibility why? Thanks!


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The Storm of the Century of 3/1993 was named that for a very good reason: there has been nothing like it in the Gulf non-tropically speaking. The lowest pressure was way lower than that of any other Gulf low that produced major wintry wx in the bulk of the SE. Abd daily wx maps go back to 1871 or so. So, odds minuscule at best.
 
GaWx said:
Those lows moving across C or S FL sure do look most inviting. Unfortunately, cold enough air is very much in question as evidenced by the operational run and the lack of Arctic high pressure anywhere nearby on
this 18Z EPS mean map to work in tandem with this. Ideally, I’d like to see a high moving from the Plains to the Ohio Valley moving eastward as this low comes across. Unfortunately, this scenario may be hard to come by unless the northern stream gets more involved.
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And I'd imagine if the northern stream gets more involved and brings more cold air with it, that will bring the baroclinic boundary further north resulting in a more northern track.
 
whatalife said:
So I have heard the superstorm of 93 thrown out as a possibility here. Can someone help me understand what the possibilities of that happening are? If a real possibility why? Thanks!


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It's possible, though obviously unlikely. What you would need is the PV lobe to continue to trend westward like the FV3 shows and have that northern wave phase with the S/W in the south. The whole trough would tilt negative and boom. It wouldn't be exactly like '93, but the slp would make a run.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
And I'd imagine if the northern stream gets more involved and brings more cold air with it, that will bring the baroclinic boundary further north resulting in a more northern track.
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I agree. So, this is a thread the RC needle to the max situation. But the 0Z Euro op run had just enough of a high to the NW (1032) to blast AL with big snows. So, it is doable.
 
Arcc said:
It's possible, though obviously unlikely. What you would need is the PV lobe to continue to trend westward and have that northern wave phase with the S/W in the south. The whole trough would tilt negative and boom. It wouldn't be exactly like '93, but the slp would make a run.
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It has come west some, so there's that. It's the phasing that would be more difficult to pull off. I can see the westward trend continuing as it does 90% of the time, but as I said, the phasing will likely not occur between the N and S waves. Even without the phase, there can be a respectable snowstorm I'm sure.
 
ForsythSnow said:
It has come west some, so there's that. It's the phasing that would be more difficult to pull off. I can see the westward trend continuing as it does 90% of the time, but as I said, the phasing will likely not occur between the N and S waves. Even without the phase, there can be a respectable snowstorm I'm sure.
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If the FV3 is correct and the trend I mentioned earlier occurs, the chance of a phase goes way up. I think the others were right earlier in that we will need at least some northern stream interaction to supply enough cold air. While such a phase to create a massive storm is unlikely, it isn't farfetched at all.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Thanks to the people that are breaking this down and helping me learn a bit, I’m good at breaking down severe wx but winter storms I’m iffy on
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Me too. I learn a lot on this forum from everyone and it’s also made me pursue my passion for weather even more. Thank you all. ??❄️⛅️⛄️??
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Hmm records say Atlanta got 2 inches from that storm...I don't remember though.
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It was a wet snow, temps were above freezing for almost all of the metro. I got about 3 inches in the south metro. I remember I was upset I still had to go to school because the roads were all just wet with the temps above freezing.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
It was a wet snow, temps were above freezing for almost all of the metro. I got about 3 inches in the south metro. I remember I was upset I still had to go to school because the roads were all just wet with the temps above freezing.
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You had to go to school on Christmas?:)

EDIT: I think I got the storms wrong. Im thinking December 2010. You guys must be thinking Feb 2010?
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Hmm records say Atlanta got 2 inches from that storm...I don't remember though.
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It snowed most of the afternoon and evening with temps right at freezing. The roads were fine from Atlanta until I got near home. We ended up with 4” at home which was our first decent snow in years since we missed the 2009 ULL by a few miles. Since then we’ve had an 80s like run. The 2010 storm had little precipitation showing until the end. Robert (FoothillsWx) said all along that the northern side of the precip would be more expansive and he was right. It just kept building to our northwest all day.
 
Some models have been having a cad sig on and off, this high pressure won’t likely stay due to the type of pattern were in so it would likely become a In-situ CAD, but any sort of source of cold air we would take it
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Icon could bring a dusting to 1inch to parts of Georgia and Carolinas


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