Showmeyourtds
Member
Still can't decide if there will be split HPs in Canada or not. I don't even know what to think at this point.
I’m not sure Larry. I think it’s more transient than a feature we are having to worry about ATM.
Based on what you have observed with the ensembles, have they been steady with the depiction you described above? In other words, has that projection been steady for the last few days of the month, or has the awesome pattern depiction been coming and going and remaining at the end of the run (i.e. getting pushed back)?With the projected strong -AO/-NAO by the last few days of the month combined with what by then should be a favorable MJO once again, I agree if transient means the next 12 days or so.
By the way, it looks like the SSW may finally be showing its influence on the -AO.
Based on what you have observed with the ensembles, have they been steady with the depiction you described above? In other words, has that projection been steady for the last few days of the month, or has the awesome pattern depiction been coming and going and remaining at the end of the run (i.e. getting pushed back)?
My observation of the operational models shows little consistency with the type of pattern they want to set up. We've seen short bursts of -NAOs and southward displaced PVs, mixed with central US-centered troughs, mixed with bursts of SE ridging. The western ridging seems to oscillate between setting up off or along the west coast or just inland. Yes, the pattern looks generally colder, but there is no consistent indication of a suppressed flow. What this has commonly evolved into (and which fits with the current pattern) is the propensity for low pressures tracking through TN or NC or reforming over or off the NC or VA coast, along with high pressure centers too far north up in Canada.
I know the ensembles continue to advertise great patterns, but my experience over the last few years tells me this may be fools gold until it starts working closer in time and the operational models start honing in on it. Have you noticed any trends in the ensembles that indicate we are advancing appreciably closer?
Again, for the optimists, I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer. The pattern is changing to one that should feature at least bouts of cold in which really good timing can produce a winter storm for much of the SE. But I'm just wondering what the trends in the primary tools (operational models and ensembles) are showing in terms of things being on track, in line with the overall longer range tools (analogs, Weeklies, Seasonals, SSW projections, etc.) that suggest blocking and a more favorable pattern for SE winter storms developing?
Based on what you have observed with the ensembles, have they been steady with the depiction you described above? In other words, has that projection been steady for the last few days of the month, or has the awesome pattern depiction been coming and going and remaining at the end of the run (i.e. getting pushed back)?
My observation of the operational models shows little consistency with the type of pattern they want to set up. We've seen short bursts of -NAOs and southward displaced PVs, mixed with central US-centered troughs, mixed with bursts of SE ridging. The western ridging seems to oscillate between setting up off or along the west coast or just inland. Yes, the pattern looks generally colder, but there is no consistent indication of a suppressed flow. What this has commonly evolved into (and which fits with the current pattern) is the propensity for low pressures tracking through TN or NC or reforming over or off the NC or VA coast, along with high pressure centers too far north up in Canada.
I know the ensembles continue to advertise great patterns, but my experience over the last few years tells me this may be fools gold until it starts working closer in time and the operational models start honing in on it. Have you noticed any trends in the ensembles that indicate we are advancing appreciably closer?
Again, for the optimists, I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer. The pattern is changing to one that should feature at least bouts of cold in which really good timing can produce a winter storm for much of the SE. But I'm just wondering what the trends in the primary tools (operational models and ensembles) are showing in terms of things being on track, in line with the overall longer range tools (analogs, Weeklies, Seasonals, SSW projections, etc.) that suggest blocking and a more favorable pattern for SE winter storms developing?
Won’t have to worry about cutters with that look. Y'all will be begging for a cutter or apps rubber if this verifies and holds but until then we shall keep complaining about the rain. On a side note, what makes you guys think those heights over Greenland will verify this time vs the last 10,000 times it showed up at the end of the run?I've noticed the GEFS the last couple days has advertised a much better pattern steadily around the 28th/29th. Still don't like that stinkin WAR, and would like it gone in February, but this would certainly get it done I think. But yeah, I'd love to see this look in under 300 hours. I'll be watching it this week for sure.
If it actually shows up and stays through February, I think it'll be well worth the wait. Especially if we get lower heights in SE Canada. So we wait.
View attachment 11051
Won’t have to worry about cutters with that look. Y'all will be begging for a cutter or apps rubber if this verifies and holds but until then we shall keep complaining about the rain. On a side note, what makes you guys think those heights over Greenland will verify this time vs the last 10,000 times it showed up at the end of the run?
Personally, I don't think they will verify. I mean, I could see a transitory block up there, but nothing lasting. This isn't based in any sort of meteorology. In fact, I have no idea why a sustained pattern of blocking up there doesn't happen anymore, even when it looks like it should. It just doesn't, for reasons nobody can identify. Until that changes and it shows us that we can get a true sustained west-based -NAO in the heart of winter, I don't think we should count on it, even if longer range stuff and analogs say it should happen. That's not a good forecasting methodology, generally, but it may end up working well in this area. We'll see.Won’t have to worry about cutters with that look. Y'all will be begging for a cutter or apps rubber if this verifies and holds but until then we shall keep complaining about the rain. On a side note, what makes you guys think those heights over Greenland will verify this time vs the last 10,000 times it showed up at the end of the run?
12z GFS at hour 156