Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

[Jessy89]

Upstate sc great run by fv3

 

[Webberweather53]

That’s definitely a pants exploding run. I’m about to run out of pants and we still have a ways to go!

 

[Fountainguy97]

FV3 brings the LP north at 132 then back south at 138. Not sure I buys that, Actually brings it into SW GA at 132. Have not seen a LP track like that before.

That's just the LP chasing the upper level energy. The upper levels are the drivers for storm track.

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

It has been very consistent

 

[Rain Cold]

BOOM!!!!!

That's one to save right there.

 

[Fountainguy97]

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

There are no words for that run by the FV3 for NC, no words. For them, it might have topped the insane Euro from yesterday.

 

[Rain Cold]

View attachment 8107

HP is a tick north but still a good hit

The high pressure configuration is pretty much ideal. I'd like to see a colder air mass up there though. But for a big winter storm around here, that's how you get it done.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

All that clt north is snow!!!!!! Holy ----

 

[Tarheel1]

GEFS, better clustering.

View attachment 8108 View attachment 8109

6” mean , at this lead time, is great!

 

[Kylo]

UK snowfall.

 

[whatalife]

GEFS looks south.


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[packfan98]

FV3 brings the LP north at 132 then back south at 138. Not sure I buys that, Actually brings it into SW GA at 132. Have not seen a LP track like that before.

I imagine the ns energy phases in and the LP gets tucked in closer to the coast before moving SLOWLY out.

 

[Webberweather53]

I thought yesterday’s 12z Euro run was crazy the FV3 just said HOLD MY BEER

 

[Storm5]

GEFS looks south.


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Our mid Atlantic friends said it went north lol


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[Storm5]

06z vs 12z

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[NWMSGuy]

06z vs 12z

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Looking back toward the West on those maps it definitely shifted southward on the 12z.

 

[packfan98]

Our mid Atlantic friends said it went north lol


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lol. It definitely ticked south. You can clearly see it if you look at the total precip stripe. Just a slight tick south though.

 

[Coach B]

Our mid Atlantic friends said it went north lol


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Looks like it shifted south a bit in TN/KY but was pretty close to the east.

 

[snowlover91]

I wouldn't take the Tidbits map for snow on the FV3 seriously anywhere in SC except up near GSP. This is about as far south as the 850 line gets on the 850 for the duration of the event. Most of the "snow" shown on Tidbits would be a cold rain or mixing with some sleet maybe but definitely not snow. Much of the "snow" on the Tidbits map is falling where temps are 1-5C in SC.

 

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

06z vs 12z

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Slowly but surely, model by model, it's looking like the southern escarpment is the hotspot, especially when factoring in some upslope potential.

 

[Tarheel1]

Dreamcrusher Gilbert, just said lots of cold rain, after a mix to start

 

[No snow for you]

Dreamcrusher Gilbert, just said lots of cold rain, after a mix to start

CJ will reverse him by 5:00.

 

[Kylo]

The high pressure configuration is pretty much ideal. I'd like to see a colder air mass up there though. But for a big winter storm around here, that's how you get it done.

FV starts snowing at hour 120 and stops around hour 168. I am not sure I have seen 48 hours of snow falling the past decade.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Wh

6” mean , at this lead time, is great!

where you been, Chuck? We’re riding the GFS 2.0 to the promised land

 

[Storm5]

Still needs work for my Huntsville weekend trip

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[Tarheel1]

QPF- check!!
Temps fv3

 

[Storm5]

Yeah the FV3 snow maps are flawed like euro snow maps


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[SoutheastRidge]

Looks like only 5/20 show anything decent near Atlanta. Not a very good percentage.

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

Yeah the FV3 snow maps are flawed like euro snow maps


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Yeah for sure. Still like the trend and it’s a mix here

 

[crecre9]

Still needs work for my Huntsville weekend trip

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There are fewer members showing a good N AL hit than the previous three runs.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

This has 85 north written all over it at this juncture. GEFS is pretty clear about that imo. Not wishcasting as I am south of the line separating heaven and hell

 

[Snowmageddon]

......could we be in store for another shot per the GFS:

 

[Stormlover]

Still needs work for my Huntsville weekend trip

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Well, get to work! lol

 

[Round Oak Weather]

Ticked south on the gefs. Could we see another 0z run from the gefs last night in the next few runs

 

[Stormlover]

There are fewer members showing a good N AL hit than the previous three runs.

several very good hits on this

 

[Webberweather53]

Even if the FV3 was all sleet here in Charlotte that’s still several inches of it, not unlike Wake Co in Feb 87. I could live with such a solution

 

[Round Oak Weather]

The idea the GFS put out with backside snow into middle Georgia I hope comes true

 

[mydoortotheworld]

The idea the GFS put out with backside snow into middle Georgia I hope comes true

Does FV3 follow this idea as well? At work and can’t view maps

 

[Round Oak Weather]

Does FV3 follow this idea as well? At work and can’t view maps

Kinda of looks like it but further north