• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Severe Two-Part Severe Weather Threat 1/19 & 1/21 - 1/22

Hmm considering a storm chase this weekend. Whatcha guys think bout that?
 
Damn
9608915241882a5c41332f7db89336a0.jpg


Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
Nam really gets instability well northward and it's way high by January standards. As was said a few posts ago it's going to be a rough weekend starting with the system tonight

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
The widespread 1-3 inches of rain from this event will do well at beating the drought back a little more hate we have severe to go with it

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
Agreed Shane! 4KM, prob overdone as always, looks super nasty around a lot of areas.
 
Torcon of 5 for almost all of SC for Sunday
 
00z gfs has higher instability values over a larger area Saturday night into Sunday morning . Not as robust as the NAM but trended that way no doubt
 
Storm5 said:
00z gfs has higher instability values over a larger area Saturday night into Sunday morning . Not as robust as the NAM but trended that way no doubt
Click to expand...
and to me that says a lot considering the GFS is usually underdone with SVR parameters.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Torcon of 5 for almost all of SC for Sunday
Click to expand...

I'm not bashing the Torcon, but the Torcon is not an official meteorological term. It's a term that the weather channel uses. Just stating this, just in case others didn't know.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
I'm not bashing the Torcon, but the Torcon is not an official meteorological term. It's a term that the weather channel uses. Just stating this, just in case others didn't know.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
It's not an official meteorological term, but I think when Dr. Greg Forbes speaks, we should listen! I think the April 2011 outbreak , he had it at 8-9 for Alabama, and upped it to the first and only 10, that I know of, right before all hell broke loose!
 
Closely following. All posts i have been reading indicate models are increasing instability values. But as others posted Greg Forbes has south TN Torcon 3/4 for the events saturday into sunday too.
 
HRRR and 4km NAM both have PDS TOR, don't really buy into the wording in the box, BUT....pretty impressive around the central portions of the state the next 18 hours. I bet most of Middle GA is in the ENH when the new D1 comes out. Heck wouldn't be surprised if we see a MDT at some point....what yall think?
 
Bama Ravens said:
Major damage in Hattiesburg, MS, including William Carey University. Injuries reported.
Click to expand...

Reading about this now


Looks like things have tried to get a little more linear right now but still wouldn't rule out some spin ups along the line and near that mcv

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
Reading about this now


Looks like things have tried to get a little more linear right now but still wouldn't rule out some spin ups along the line and near that mcv

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Agreed! The HRRR looks really nasty with that whole feature moving through the SE.
 
Is the shortwave this morning moving through Atlanta severe? I need to run some errands and go to work?
 
In reading test in new Day 1.. Concern that overnight threat is similar to Feb 13-14 2000 Outbreak... Very Strong overnight event
 
Wow I didn't expect a 10% hatched for TOR here. I think we definitely have a threat for them, but interested to see why 10% hatched. I guess I need to read the text. Lmao
 
The rain-cooled boundary trailing southwestward from this convection
today will begin to retreat northward tonight into southern AL and
the FL Panhandle, in response to the approach of the synoptic
midlevel trough and deepening surface cyclone from the southern
Plains. The low-level jet is again expected to strengthen tonight
and contribute to an increase in warm/moist advection, beneath the
eastern extent of a steeper midlevel lapse rate plume. Supercells
will develop in this warm advection regime, with low-level
shear/hodographs becoming favorable for strong tornadoes overnight
from southern AL and the FL Panhandle into southwest GA. Depending
on the evolution of the mesoscale details through tonight, a
moderate risk for the tornado threat may need to be considered for
overnight.
Well ok then....
 
Law enforcement on local TV in Hattiesburg just said he thought impact was worse than the EF-4 that hit a few years ago.
 
Head's up just west of Dadeville, no TOR warning yet, but rotation increasing...
 
Very little lightning present near the strongest area of rotation, hopefully more of a straight line wind threat....
 
The end of that cell near Jackson Gap is curious to me. That line segment headed toward Columbus Ga is a beast

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
Think BHM is being very smart with an "aerail" Tornado Warning for multi spin ups along the "coma head". Looking at GR3 BV product.. Winds to 65+ kts at 3 to 4k AGL...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top