deltadog03 said:
Euro was a damn mess to be blunt about it. It looks like it occludes the low near Memphis and the low coming out of the gulf into central Ga becomes the primary low. Geez
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Severe Two-Part Severe Weather Threat 1/19 & 1/21 - 1/22
- Thread starter Bama Ravens
- Start date
Euro was a damn mess to be blunt about it. It looks like it occludes the low near Memphis and the low coming out of the gulf into central Ga becomes the primary low. Geez
ForsythSnow
Moderator
6Z GFS has the bulk shear way down for the western half of Georgia. Builds once past Atlanta area. Strange difference since the 0Z had it building strong in Alabama before.
Bama Ravens
Member
BMX has introduced the severe threat for Saturday:
And here is their graphic for Sunday:
And here is their graphic for Sunday:
Bama Ravens said:BMX has introduced the severe threat for Saturday:
And here is their graphic for Sunday:
Looks like they are ramping it up
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Severe threat increases for a majority of the board!
As of now its GFS, NAM -vs- EURO? Right? As always ?
nam and gfs are most aggressive with the instability. will be interesting to see the 12z euro and see if it starts trending towards the gfs or if it continues its idea of instability issuesstormcentral said:
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12z gfs looks to limit the severe threat to areas further south closer to the coast. Really backs off the threat for the i20 area. Looks very euro like.
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12z cmc says what severe weather
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Storm5 said:
Models are really struggling with the overall evolution here and its bungling up everything. I am not sure if the surface low will occlude over TN but it seems like the models want to jump the sfc low toward central SE Ga on Sunday versus a single low riding across Tn into the mid Atlantic. It still looks like could be severe weather on Saturday into Saturday night for Al/MS/La per the GFS then Saturday night-Sunday night for Ga/SC/NC
Just looking through the GFS Soundings certainly looks concerning across Al/Ga/MS Saturday-Sat night Imo
Is southeast TN out of the threat as of now?
12z euro is a mess. Transfers as SD was talking about taking the low right through central Georgia . So not looks like a severe threat on Saturday for a larger area but on Sunday the threat would be south and east of the low riding through central Georgia
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So now severe threat for dixie saturday?
stormcentral said:
Yeah models are all over Saturday for Al/Ms/Ga low level jet punching in and some instability.....Sunday is Carolinas far eastern Ga if you go by the 12z runs.
Euro is 976mb south of Atlanta early Sunday....wow. Still a messy transition from the dying parent low over west Tn to the secondary low coming out of the gulf.
SD said:
That's a highly anomalous looking slp on the Euro, dang that's strong and hard to imagine there would not be significant severe weather with that. Heck outside of storms gonna be hold on to your hat type of wind for some folks if that verifies.
It looks like background pressures area already going to be quite low across the region but still 976 over Ga is pretty impressive. The Euro would make me very concerned from US1 eastward between 18z Sunday and 6z Mondaymetwannabe said:
Looks like euro is messy as yall have been saying but Saturday and into the night then east into Carolinas for Sunday still looks interesting. SD can you post a gfs sounding or 2 please?
Here's a GFS sounding for very close to mby for time frame Shane mentioned.....deltadog03 said:
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