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Severe Two-Part Severe Weather Threat 1/19 & 1/21 - 1/22

severe threat holding strong for the weekend. Looking like a nasty setup

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Storm5 said:
severe threat holding strong for the weekend. Looking like a nasty setup

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Birmingham looks to be in a particularly troublesome spot.... :-/
 
Flurry said:
Storm5 said:
severe threat holding strong for the weekend. Looking like a nasty setup

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Birmingham looks to be in a particularly troublesome spot.... :-/
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Yeah I honestly am surprised to see where we sit as of today. with the runs yesterday showing lows bouncing all over I thought the threat might end up further south.... guess not lol

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Storm5 said:
Flurry said:
Storm5 said:
severe threat holding strong for the weekend. Looking like a nasty setup

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Birmingham looks to be in a particularly troublesome spot.... :-/
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Yeah I honestly am surprised to see where we sit as of today. with the runs yesterday showing lows bouncing all over I thought the threat might end up further south.... guess not lol

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Looks fairly unstable and you have a decent LLJ nosing in later Saturday I would favor I20 south right now
 
Boy the rain is amazing, under a flood watch
 
Looks like an early round of storms early Saturday morning for miss and alabama and maybe another late afternoon and overnight , the threat shifts east on Sunday

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Suspicious spot southwest of Clanton.

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Those 2 cells there in Alabama are both very suspicious looking. Then you have the line segment back toward Jackson MS

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Nams looks like a Saturday morning threat for Alabama moving into Ga through the day then another threat late Saturday into the overnight

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severe threat is pretty impressive for south georgia into the Florida panhandle and eastward on Sunday

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Storm5 said:
severe threat is pretty impressive for south georgia into the Florida panhandle and eastward on Sunday

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What's strange is that NWS JAX isn't even talking about it, but NWS TALL is - present dynamics do not look pretty for N FL on Sunday. But, we'll see as oftentimes these severe threats end up washing out due to a more northeast movement than the models depict, even 48 hours out. We'll see ....
 
Man, I think the NAM might be overdone, but who knows. GFS isn't nearly as enthusiastic here in CAE.. but if I were guessing, a squall will come through. NAM had a supercell rolling all the way across South-Central GA.

Our local guys here were already mentioning gulf convection ruining upstream.
 
Shawn said:
Man, I think the NAM might be overdone, but who knows.  GFS isn't nearly as enthusiastic here in CAE.. but if I were guessing, a squall will come through.  NAM had a supercell rolling all the way across South-Central GA.

Our local guys here were already mentioning gulf convection ruining upstream.
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Probably is, but if you take the overall message, it looks like South MS through South-Central GA is going to be the spot for tornadic cells. Overall across the Southeast it is going to be a nasty weekend.
 
It looks like the activity tonight into tomorrow morning will be discrete cells turning into more of a MCS look through the day. I would be keeping a close eye on late tonight into tomorrow morning if I were in MS/AL. Then tomorrow afternoon it looks like the activity refocuses to the NW as the better dynamics get closer with a good chance of severe storms in MS/AL tomorrow evening into the overnight where hail is a huge threat
 
Looks like the models are resolving the fact there will be 2 rounds for parts of MS/AL with the first coming overnight tonight into the morning tomorrow mainly for southern MS, southern and central Al and west Ga. The second comes tomorrow overnight for northern MS and NW Al.
Finally a 3rd threat comes late Sunday into early Monday for the Carolinas and Ga
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
I wasn't sure if it was a good idea to post this here or the severe weather thread...but any way...all of the NAM high res models are showing a 973mb low which is a 28.73 pressure reading...that mb is classified as a Cat. 2 hurricane. WOW! Look at the squall line too...amazing!

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That would set a record low SLP at KRDU and KGSO most likely
 
We won't see winds like a Cat. 2 hurricane though. The 12km NAM is showing winds up to 20kts which is about 23mph...that's like a weak tropical depression. There could be some wind gusts up to 40kts (about 46mph) within the squall line with higher wind gusts 50+mph.

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If a couple storms get that "umph" with a jet coming in (i have not looked into this or it's speed, so idk) the wind gusts could be more.
 
Shawn said:
If a couple storms get that "umph" with a jet coming in (i have not looked into this or it's speed, so idk) the wind gusts could be more.
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I haven't looked at the jet either, I'm sure it's coming in strong with the low being an ULL.

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18z NAM jet stream winds Sun. at 1300hrs.
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I haven't checked the soundings, but nam looks nasty for a lot of places. Any maybe all the way to I20
 
Yeah so, like 10-11AM Sunday does not look friendly around CAE even. Hm.
 
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