Severe Two-Part Severe Weather Threat 1/19 & 1/21 - 1/22

[SD]

Where is Fred, SD, Storm5 & Stormlover? Lol

Id like to see a little more model consistency regarding the sfc low but it looks like the Euro is the middle ground between the GFS and CMC. The GFS would imply a large area of the region under the gun over the weekend with the surface low well removed from the region. The CMC looks like it takes the low right across the region which would obviously limit the threat to the south. With the Euro splitting the difference it certainly looks like a good part of MS, Al, Ga, and the Carolinas will be favored for severe weather. The threat may extend up toward I40 in Tn, if the GFS low track verified the threat would cover a much larger part of TN.

Overall though you have an impressive jet nosing into the region, steep lapse rates, plenty of shear, and backed low level winds on all models.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Where is Fred, SD, Storm5 & Stormlover? Lol

Id like to see a little more model consistency regarding the sfc low but it looks like the Euro is the middle ground between the GFS and CMC. The GFS would imply a large area of the region under the gun over the weekend with the surface low well removed from the region. The CMC looks like it takes the low right across the region which would obviously limit the threat to the south. With the Euro splitting the difference it certainly looks like a good part of MS, Al, Ga, and the Carolinas will be favored for severe weather. The threat may extend up toward I40 in Tn, if the GFS low track verified the threat would cover a much larger part of TN.

Overall though you have an impressive jet nosing into the region, steep lapse rates, plenty of shear, and backed low level winds on all models.

It's going to come down to diurnal timing as to how much low-level instability will get involved. However, looking at some of the potential scenarios, it will not take much to light the match. Imagine what would happen if this was in April.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Where is Fred, SD, Storm5 & Stormlover? Lol

Id like to see a little more model consistency regarding the sfc low but it looks like the Euro is the middle ground between the GFS and CMC. The GFS would imply a large area of the region under the gun over the weekend with the surface low well removed from the region. The CMC looks like it takes the low right across the region which would obviously limit the threat to the south. With the Euro splitting the difference it certainly looks like a good part of MS, Al, Ga, and the Carolinas will be favored for severe weather. The threat may extend up toward I40 in Tn, if the GFS low track verified the threat would cover a much larger part of TN.

Overall though you have an impressive jet nosing into the region, steep lapse rates, plenty of shear, and backed low level winds on all models.

It's going to come down to diurnal timing as to how much low-level instability will get involved. However, looking at some of the potential scenarios, it will not take much to light the match. Imagine what would happen if this was in April.

I was thinking the same thing about if this was in another month later on. It would be absolutely horrible and there would be tons of long track tornadoes. Fortunately, it is limited this time of year, but there is still potential for something dangerous.

 

[deltadog03]

I will have more info on this a little later, but this looks like it could be a really big deal for a good chunk of the SE. In fact this could be a look that really favors GA and eastward into the Carolinas. Yes AL, MS look in on the act too.

 

[Shawn]

I will have more info on this a little later, but this looks like it could be a really big deal for a good chunk of the SE. In fact this could be a look that really favors GA and eastward into the Carolinas. Yes AL, MS look in on the act too.

Can't wait to read your input!

 

[JHS]

The Carolinas will potentially have a major wildcard to deal with and that would be CAD. That will not affect Miss through most of GA or Tenn, but could spare at least the western sections of the Carolinas. Now if we do get a CAD boundary set up, it could enhance the storms along it. A good example of this would be March 3 2012 when a storm on a wedge boundary produced a tornado in Charlotte NC.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

The Carolinas will potentially have a major wildcard to deal with and that would be CAD. That will not affect Miss through most of GA or Tenn, but could spare at least the western sections of the Carolinas. Now if we do get a CAD boundary set up, it could enhance the storms along it. A good example of this would be March 3 2012 when a storm on a wedge boundary produced a tornado in Charlotte NC.

So you think most of North GA including near the mountains will not be impacted by CAD ?

 

[JHS]

The Carolinas will potentially have a major wildcard to deal with and that would be CAD. That will not affect Miss through most of GA or Tenn, but could spare at least the western sections of the Carolinas. Now if we do get a CAD boundary set up, it could enhance the storms along it. A good example of this would be March 3 2012 when a storm on a wedge boundary produced a tornado in Charlotte NC.

So you think most of North GA including near the mountains will not be impacted by CAD ?

It's too early to tell yet, but it would be from the Gainesville  area and northeast in GA that would be most likely to see CAD. It's possible that we will not have any CAD at all though, even in the Carolinas. We will have to wait and see.

 

[WeatherLC]

I will have more info on this a little later, but this looks like it could be a really big deal for a good chunk of the SE. In fact this could be a look that really favors GA and eastward into the Carolinas. Yes AL, MS look in on the act too.

I have to ask, aren't there going to be the typical limiting factors in GA ? I know we have good dynamics progged, but what about instability??

 

[Meteorologist1999]

I will have more info on this a little later, but this looks like it could be a really big deal for a good chunk of the SE. In fact this could be a look that really favors GA and eastward into the Carolinas. Yes AL, MS look in on the act too.

I have to ask, aren't there going to be the typical limiting factors in GA ? I know we have good dynamics progged, but what about instability??

The wedge is always underdone in the CAD areas on the models.

 

[WeatherLC]

I will have more info on this a little later, but this looks like it could be a really big deal for a good chunk of the SE. In fact this could be a look that really favors GA and eastward into the Carolinas. Yes AL, MS look in on the act too.

I have to ask, aren't there going to be the typical limiting factors in GA ? I know we have good dynamics progged, but what about instability??

The wedge is always underdone in the CAD areas on the models.

Is there a wedge forecasted? I haven't seen that yet.

 

[SD]

There is a light northeast flow in the cad areas into Saturday but if there is no rain any weak wedging should be busted by the incoming southerly flow. The limit factor for northern Ga might be moist inflow bring cutoff by thunderstorms to the south

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk

 

[GTWXAlum]

I'm sharing the same concerns others have expressed in this thread about the Sunday threat especially for Atlanta with regards to the NFC Championship going on in the afternoon (and tailgating beforehand). If the threat were to verify, thousands of people may be completely unaware weather-wise

 

[malak05]

I'm sharing the same concerns others have expressed in this thread about the Sunday threat especially for Atlanta with regards to the NFC Championship going on in the afternoon (and tailgating beforehand). If the threat were to verify, thousands of people may be completely unaware weather-wise

On a Serious note so very True... On a personal note that damn weather better not screw with my Falcons punching a ticket to the Super Bowl!!!

 

[WilkesboroDude]

Wedge will save me here but worried about flooding. Ski resorts will also take a beating. Brad Panovich is showing over 5" for Statesville and over 4" for Wilkes. And I am pretty sure that does not factor in upslope along the Blue Ridge.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Wedge will save me here but worried about flooding. Ski resorts will also take a beating. Brad Panovich is showing over 5" for Statesville and over 4" for Wilkes. And I am pretty sure that does not factor in upslope along the Blue Ridge.

sounds like the ski resorts out west are doing much better than in NC right now

 

[WilkesboroDude]

NWS Blacksburg said the CAD area of NC could approach January record level water values of 1.2".

"With a very moist atmosphere, strong low level flow
parallel to thew baroclinic zone, and orographic effects from the Blue
Ridge, guidance begins to generate substantial rainfall on Sunday with
a continuation through Monday as the front moves through. These
parameters are consistent with heavy precipitation events,"

 

[Shawn]

For those around CAE possibly wondering, GFS (at least recently) is boring. Chance at some thunder and winds.

 

[ForsythSnow]

It looks like the recent few runs the overall models want to take the low further south than what was previously modeled.

 

[deltadog03]

Ya euro looked like it just bowled the low across the south further south last night. Didn't look at the gfs.