Took away my 1st freeze, so it SUX ...Just checking in to see how the 18z GFS is working out for everyone...
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Oh, I just recalled how IMBY posts disturb me ...
Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion
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Oh, I just recalled how IMBY posts disturb me ...
So far through Nov 17th the pattern is very similar to the previous Nov snowy/cold nino composites. For Dec the composites show npac low more east then we like but retrogrades west into Jan/Feb. Thus temps get progressively colder. In short, I like where we are. (knock on wood)
Complete chaos. Gotta get rid of that gigantic low in the Pacific.
I think the stranger thing is that it has three very powerfull ULLs exerting influence over NA.
December/mid December can't get here soon enough. Can we keep
Do the euro ensembles show us losing the greenland block the first week in December? Looks like from dts post...
Do the euro ensembles show us losing the greenland block the first week in December? Looks like from dts post...
3 to 4 weeks away, so don't fret. DT loves it when anything looking good south of the NC border even appears like it may collapse ... Take it and him with a huge and bitter grain of salt ...December/mid December can't get here soon enough. Can we keep
Do the euro ensembles show us losing the greenland block the first week in December? Looks like from dts post...
Hell, he even thinks the entirety of the Civil War was fought in PA and VA ...
Off the soapbox before love shines brighter ...
Yeah, whatever gets Richmond/DCA snow, he’s good with! I think he’s bitter that the severely cold part of the Thanksgiving blast, is going to hit BOS/NYC hard, and not him
Not sure, but we can’t have wall to wall cold!? Has to be a relaxation period, then the hammer drops Christmas-Feb!December/mid December can't get here soon enough. Can we keep
Do the euro ensembles show us losing the greenland block the first week in December? Looks like from dts post...
That’s the plan, time to be thankful December isn’t a torch like last year. ( as of now)
I will take another torchy December if it includes another historic snowstorm.
December/mid December can't get here soon enough. Can we keep
Do the euro ensembles show us losing the greenland block the first week in December? Looks like from dts post...
No and yes.
That screenshot is from the weeklies which does have a neutral NAO by Dec 6...but that’s hour 370-400 or so. I wouldn’t put much weight into that. However, what he’s pointing out is the deep negative anomalies for the EC trough. Usually a sign of a storm. Very impressive negative anomalies for so far out.
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Any winter with a historic snowstorm is a win, IMO
Not at all saying this year is like a 09-10, but I believe I remember that year, models kept trying to break the blocking down. And it just kept coming back.
I certainly hope so. I'm sure we can have a decent winter without it, but the blocking is what has me excited.
There are a few (~3-4) EPS members that produce >1" of snow in central-eastern NC when that s/w comes eastward around day 8-10.
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Whatever storm we got in this timeframe would probably be Miller type-A/coastal low in the Carolinas unless more North Pacific blocking appears between now & verification.
Hey Webber I know it's too early to say but does Alabama and Mississippi areas have a chance during this time frame?
No idea on who or if this threat would even materialize I'm just stating generally speaking if one comes to fruition, the planetary-scale pattern we have in place supports coastal lows or perhaps an overrunning event. I've generally noticed it's hard to get big cold air damming events w/o significant North Pacific blocking seeding the continent and northern stream waves w/ frigid Siberian air and getting split flow upstream in the eastern Pacific.