Brent
Member
Looks a lot better all the sudden but will it last
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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
Looks a lot better all the sudden but will it last
champal3003
Member
Looking at the Goes satellites, it looks like convection is blowing up around the south side of center and starting to wrap around as if its about to make a run at gaining strength.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector.php?sat=G16§or=eus
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector.php?sat=G16§or=eus
snowlover91
Member
Lightning in the south side of the eyewall.
Yep definitely looking more like a hurricane again.... never guess with intensity
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Brent
Member
normally I'd say the 3km NAM is out to lunch(because well it usually is with these) but it does make you wonder
Snowflowxxl
Member
This storm has defied all logic up to this point, why not make a run back at becoming a major! Prayers for Wilmington, I’m scared to see what it looks like post storm
champal3003
Member
Wow!!! This thing will def have to be watched closely with that convection blowing up now. That would be a monster.
have a feeling this is going to surprise anyone who decides not to evacuate because it's weakening... this storm is huge, and going to have a big storm surge, at the very least... Katrina went from Cat 5 to Cat 3 at landfall. Also, who can leave their dogs behind? I'm taking mine with me or dying with them riding it out.
Kylo
Member
FWIW, the 0z UKmet, like the Euro, doesn't get Flo above 34N, and dives deep into SC. GFS doesn't get it below 34N. So the 2 best models against the rest, will be interesting to see who wins.
Looks like FV3 get's it right to 34N at 30 hours.
Looks like FV3 get's it right to 34N at 30 hours.
It looks like its starting to slow down a bit as well
The FV3 about same location as it's 18z location and maybe a tick south of the GFS
thanks for the report on the ukie
I’m looking at the Dvorak loop (hopefully correctly) and the SW eyewall looks to be exploding right now. Florence still has some fight left in her
BHS1975
Member
0z Euro run will be critical
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BHS1975
Member
I wouldn’t say the ukie is the best, just gets lucky.
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Stormsfury
Member
Watch the outflow west of the hurricane...that's our hint right now of the future movement on the slowdown..
Ridge building....
That convection on the SW side of the eye is going bonkers right now. Anything left out there to hinder it besides the coastline?
Stormsfury
Member
Florence is moving away from a shear axis that disrupted her today.
agreed! also notice how the clouds almost get squashed on western and northern portion as well.
THOSE CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING AT AN ACCELERATED RATE
RollTide18
Member
Could surprise some people in the morning if this keeps up. This has been the only problem with the storm, it’s had trouble keeping a good look, was gonna go to sleep but I’m gonna watch this a bit more.
Stormsfury
Member
Yeah and very soon Florence is gonna hit that brick wall and slam on the brakes
Ryan Maue | weathermodels.comVerified account @RyanMaue 2m2 minutes ago
Whatever episode that #Florence was dealing with this evening has apparently been resolved. This mid-level water vapor image shows a much healthier hurricane. I thought soon the inner-core would be a goner with a big truck tire eye.
Whatever episode that #Florence was dealing with this evening has apparently been resolved. This mid-level water vapor image shows a much healthier hurricane. I thought soon the inner-core would be a goner with a big truck tire eye.
RollTide18
Member
Ryan Maue | weathermodels.comVerified account @RyanMaue 2m2 minutes ago
Whatever episode that #Florence was dealing with this evening has apparently been resolved. This mid-level water vapor image shows a much healthier hurricane. I thought soon the inner-core would be a goner with a big truck tire eye.
That was some kind of episode, it was looking almost extratropical earlier.
BHS1975
Member
I wonder if the wind field will contract now.
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Brent
Member
I know someone in Wilmington on FB who has been feeling better about recent trends
Maybe not soon...
Maybe not soon...
not that im seeing. looks to be in pretty favorable conditions
Brent
Member
yeah looks like it cleared the shear area that plagued it today...
Cary_Snow95
Member
FV3 identical to 18z so far at 48
when if the next recon set for?
wthunter615
Member
RollTide18
Member
New Thunderstorms firing on the south side of the storm too, is she over the Gulf Stream yet?
RollTide18
Member
Brent
Member
they are there now
accu35
Member
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Wow!!! You can almost see a south west wobble last frame
Cary_Snow95
Member
fv3 shifted further south into sc this run
Brent
Member
this storm I swear...
RollTide18
Member
It’s just crazy, just when we think we got a clue on what’s going to happen, Florence/Models say “I was just playin’“ and do something totally opposite.
Brent
Member
956 mb that pass, down a couple mb