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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Her current position is just a hair north of the guidance, the stall and westward thing will most likely occur but I'm concerned a little further north before that occurs could destroy the fragile OBX
Storm5 said:
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DadOfJax said:
I'll ask again since nobody replied...

What kind of impacts could this have on the coastal NUKE PLANT in NC? What kind of precaution can they take to ensure safety? NOBODY is talking about this...crazy!
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Nuclear power plants are capable of surviving almost any natural disaster exempting major earthquakes and tsunamis, which are nearly impossible. Plants can take hurricanes and survive, they just can't put out power.
 
Fukushima's diesel generators flooded out and went offline. Hopefully, they got ours up on some stilts or something, but it's hard to prepare for a never-before-seen natural disaster -- for instance, a Cat 4 hurricane spinning for 48 hours, battering the coast with 100 mph + winds, continuous storm surge, and nearly 100" of rain (courtesy of the UK).
 
This EWRC is a very bad thing for the NC coast. Assuming it completes the wind field will likely expand and Florence would have the chance to intensify prior to landfall. However even if it doesn't complete it will probably expand the wind outward so instead of a tight core of winds it might be a larger swath of winds with a lower intensity. The surge potential for the coast especially the areas it stalls is pretty scary.
 
DadOfJax said:
I'll ask again since nobody replied...

What kind of impacts could this have on the coastal NUKE PLANT in NC? What kind of precaution can they take to ensure safety? NOBODY is talking about this...crazy!
Click to expand...

It’s a nuclear power plant on the coast and they are already built to be incredibly durable. The main issue is with power (ironically) but they have emergency diesel generators if needed. At least 2 nuclear power plants have been hit by Cat 5 storms and both operated off diesel power for several days before coming back online and operating normally.

Long story short: modern nuclear power plants are prepared for things like this.


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These hi res NAM Sim IR images are insane and btw the NAM never fully stalls but slows and curves west, landfall just south of ILM

nam3km_ir_seus_28.png
 
The 12z Nam brings pretty good sustained winds into the triangle. That stall if the coast will likely point a firehose into the southern triangle. Not as worried as I was originally in Wake but downed trees seem likely at this point
 
Just dumping on SC and those bands across NC/Va probably problematic also (spin ups I'm sure)

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_57.png
 
So. The idea is this thing is going to chill off the coast of SE NC somewhere, and come Southwest. Is it going to ride the coast? Is it going to make landfall in SE NC? All of these factors greatly affect what happens downstream here in South Carolina, especially.

At this point, I'd expect a rapidly weakening tropical storm coming through the Midlands of SC somewhere. We won't be seeing the horrendous rains anything like the 1000 year flood by any means, but winds coupled with heavy rains will make things tedious.

The eventual track will dictate how much wind and rain we see. For example, we'd see a lot more rain in Columbia, if the system cuts through the Southern part of our state. If it cuts through the North of Columbia, The impacts will be less intense, but put places like Charlotte in a situation of heavy rain.

Either way, I expect the name "Florence" to be retired for the amount of damage and rainfall she drops on SE NC alone. If she decides to stay off shore and track back West before coming into the Charleston area, the majority of SC is in for it.

TLDR. Expect tropical force conditions in a big chunk of SC. We don't know where her center will track, so that makes a forecast of rain and wind impossible to come up with right now.
 
Well, my office is closing tomorrow at 12 and will be closed Friday.
 
Anyone like to elaborate on the this comment in the NHC discussion? Is this what was expected and the reason for the southward shift or something new, they sound as if this is another wrinkle in the forecast...

The shortwave trough over the southern Plains seen in water vapor
imagery could end up being a significant factor as it rounds the
narrow ridge over the Tennessee Valley and is expected to erode the
ridge along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast on days 3-5. At this time,
little change has been made to the NHC track forecast, which remains
very close to the aforementioned consensus aids through 72 hours.
 
metwannabe said:
Anyone like to elaborate on the this comment in the NHC discussion? Is this what was expected and the reason for the southward shift or something new, they sound as if this is another wrinkle in the forecast...

The shortwave trough over the southern Plains seen in water vapor
imagery could end up being a significant factor as it rounds the
narrow ridge over the Tennessee Valley and is expected to erode the
ridge along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast on days 3-5. At this time,
little change has been made to the NHC track forecast, which remains
very close to the aforementioned consensus aids through 72 hours.
Click to expand...


Sounds like they don’t know where TF to draw the lines & cones because this model output is unlike anything we’ve ever seen. Seems like they want a few more model suites before they draw loops and stalls in....JMO, but I don’t do this for a living.


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I'm an amateur (hence the name metwannabe) but seeing that ridge to her east and that trough to the west and the current quick NW motion, I'm not buying this southward thing until it happens.... yeah yeah I'm an idiot I know but sure a long way to go with her just yet imo
 
metwannabe said:
Anyone like to elaborate on the this comment in the NHC discussion? Is this what was expected and the reason for the southward shift or something new, they sound as if this is another wrinkle in the forecast...

The shortwave trough over the southern Plains seen in water vapor
imagery could end up being a significant factor as it rounds the
narrow ridge over the Tennessee Valley and is expected to erode the
ridge along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast on days 3-5. At this time,
little change has been made to the NHC track forecast, which remains
very close to the aforementioned consensus aids through 72 hours.
Click to expand...

It sounds to me like they might be expecting less of a stall and more of a west motion or northwest motion as the shortwave breaks down the ridging allowing her to pull more to the north... but that's just a guess.
 
Any erosion or changes to the ridge will effect how long she sits and where she eventually goes. She'll follow the path of least resistance.. and with the steering pattern being virtually nill (as modeled), anything will nudge her around given the opportunity. NHC is just introducing the idea that there could be a change to the ridge based on a shortwave trof and to keep the option on the table that the track may start to change on modeling day 3+.
 
Of note the ICON stalls to the east of it's 06z run and then drifts it west into the Wilmington area through hour 72.
 
Yeah, at 81, the ICON is slightly east of its 87 hour 6z location.
 
At 96, the ICON is way east of its 6z location at 102:

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Looks like initial impacts at the coast are speeding up again too.... easily storm force winds there by tomorrow morning
 
It would seem from the 12z models so far that the bend to the sw or wsw isn't as pronounced and the stall is shorter... Let's see if the globals show the same or different.
 
ICON substantially farther north than 6z. Never gets into SC. Ruh Roh.
 
The one thing I’m fairly confident of is that should there be a stall of ~24 hours while still offshore, the likelihood of significant weakening then would be high. I don’t recall off the top of my head a single instance of a very strong storm like this in the Atlantic stalling or even just slowing down to a crawl not weakening substantially. As I understand it, this is possibly due to a combo of 1) energy being extracted from the top layers of the ocean to feed the storm in the general vicinity of the center....conservation of energy concept (a principle stating that energy cannot be created or destroyed, but can be altered from one form to another) and 2) The rain cooled air for such a long period with no warming sunshine over a larger portion of the ocean (diameter of several hundred miles for this big of a storm) covered by the rain shield, would itself, likely cause cooling of a few degrees on its own. Perhaps these 2 things are interdependent/overlapping to some extent.

So, if it were still a major when this potential 24+ hour slow down and/or stall were to start, I’d bet on a weakening at least down to category 2 and possibly even down to a cat 1 as of the end of the 24 hours. I suppose she could restrengthen some once she started moving again but I wouldn’t expect her to come close to her pre-stall strength if for no other reason that a good portion of her would likely be over land then. The caveat though to the chance for restrengthening much after the weakening is a stall a good bit further offshore than even the 0Z Euro showed. That possibility also needs to be considered since that may be the trend going forward.

In talking about this likely weakening during any prolonged crawling/stalling, I’m not trying to downplay if she were to weaken to a cat 2 or even to a cat 1 as the effects on land would likely still be major all around her wherever she ends up going mainly due to her large size.

Any thoughts? By the way, I realize the waters right over the Gulf Stream would likely remain warmer than surrounding areas, regardless.

(PS, yes I still have reservations just in case)
 
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