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Tropical Tropical Storm Cindy

Discussion in 'General Weather' started by Webberweather53, Jun 17, 2017.

  1. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator

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    [​IMG]


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  2. whatalife

    whatalife Moderator Supporter

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    Oops! Nice typo on my part...


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  3. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator

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    00z set [​IMG]


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  4. RollTide18

    RollTide18

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    A track like that is gonna bring a wall of water right into Alabama, yikes...
     
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  5. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator

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    00z NAM says look at me I'm EURO like


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  6. accu35

    accu35

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    Yeah, I can only imagine.
     
  7. Parker

    Parker

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    It can rain all it wants this week, but this dang thing is making me nervous. I can't be having a soaker of a day on Saturday and I guess it really depends on the speed of this thing, but man it's got me nervous with our outdoor wedding. Seems like Saturday was looking okay on the models up until the past 24 hours or so.
     
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  8. whatalife

    whatalife Moderator Supporter

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    Yeah! That's not cool!


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  9. Arcc

    Arcc Supporter

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    Yall having it at Pursell Farms?
     
  10. accu35

    accu35

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    Oz Gfs/gfs para came little more east. Landfall around MS/AL line.
     
  11. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator

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    Gfs continues its westward correction towards the euro . Moisture won't be a problem this week across the southeast


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  12. NWMSGuy

    NWMSGuy

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    Awesome information! Thanks for the link!
     
  13. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator

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    There are many eps members that take the system inland over Texas and then slingshot it to the right across the southeast. Get ready for a wet end to the week


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  14. metwannabe

    metwannabe Moderator Supporter

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    [​IMG]
     
  15. accu35

    accu35

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    Yeah, rain will be the story with this storm
     
  16. metwannabe

    metwannabe Moderator Supporter

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    Certainly looks as if excessive rainfall will be the biggest threat, should remain disorganized which will limit intensification with most guidance only showing TS strength....

    [​IMG]
     
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  17. skywatcher

    skywatcher Supporter

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    The current model tracks are zeroing in on New Orleans. It's never good when NO gets a big rainmaker.
     
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  18. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1

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    It'll overshoot the Carolinas and go through VA or something! :(
    Bypassing SD,JHS, and myself!
     
  19. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator

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    Looks like complete crap at the moment . I'll be surprised if recon even goes out today


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  20. metwannabe

    metwannabe Moderator Supporter

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    No doubt it's a mess this morning... difficult to tell with vis sat just yet but almost looks like a naked swirl just to the NW of the Yucatan tip and west of the thunderstorm activity, of course their may very well be several low level vorticities within the elongated low pressure area.
     
  21. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1

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    I know it's early and lots of uncertainty, but local mets are saying to not expect ANYTHING from this in my area, not even rain!
     
  22. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Let's all take a moment to lol at the obviously wrong NAM. Would be horrible if true, but it's not going to be that strong. I'm fact, several mesoscale models blow this thing stronger than global models do, or faster.[​IMG]
     
  23. metwannabe

    metwannabe Moderator Supporter

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    Yeah I saw that this morning but decided not to post it.... this belongs in banter. Lol jk, obviously anything can happen but ummm no.
     
  24. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator

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    Get a boat then lol and please don't say things like that . JHS won't be able to handle that idea lol


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    Last edited: Jun 19, 2017
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  25. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator

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    I see a naked swirl


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  26. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    It's there for sure, and convection appears to be catching up to it. If it does, this thing will look way better later today. Otherwise, hopefully they fly in today. We need to know what it's doing lol. [​IMG]
     
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  27. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator

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    KBMX is talking about a tornado threat for Thursday


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  28. NWMSGuy

    NWMSGuy

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    Would this ultimately depend on strength and who is south and east of the Northeast quadrant of the system?
     
  29. RVD

    RVD

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    Animating that image reveals that there does appear to be some wind shear in that location (upper level clouds moving NNE, while lower level clouds moving W). I'm unsure how long that will last though, or if it will have any significant impact on its ability to maintain convection over the center.

    Animation link (time-sensitive): https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-b...uality=100&zoom=1&type=Animation&numframes=15
     
  30. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator

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    Strength seems to be irrelevant. They were discussing the low level shear in response to the flow at 850mb. But yes his would be for areas east of the center . This was their post

    Widespread rain is looking quite likely for Thursday as the low
    pressure envelope makes its move inland. While the GFS and ECMWF
    are several hundred miles apart with the track of the actual low
    center, both models indicate an expansive wind field on its
    eastern side. A corridor of 35-45 kt flow at 850mb could yield
    substantial low-level shear and a threat for tornadoes on
    Thursday. This threat could be introduced into the HWO, but will
    require future model agreement and consistency.


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