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Tropical Tropical Storm Cindy

Storm5 said:
I just think it's funny all these big wigs have been saying for days the Gfs and para are wrong. Might turn out to be right but it's funny the declarations made so far out


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So true. I just have enough experience w/GEFS not to trust it but we'll see. I'm all in for the rain that would bring us.


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This ladies and gents is what is called a spread
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whatalife said:
So true. I just have enough experience w/GEFS not to trust it but we'll see. I'm all in for the rain that would bring us.


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I trust no model in tropical season . I've seen the euro bust , the eps bust , gefs . Truth is we have seen them all bust . If this were winter I'd ride the the JMA


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Storm5 said:
This ladies and gents is what is called a spread
80a38df00f5416f62f43f3a88505ffa4.png

0264d1fe3f22a3e7a7c1ad2461226224.gif



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Yep. Should be fun to see where this one goes. Here's hoping for a solution that brings most of the SE rain...


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Storm5 said:
I trust no model in tropical season . I've seen the euro bust , the eps bust , gefs . Truth is we have seen them all bust . If this were winter I'd ride the the JMA


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LOL. All models are completely even chances each year to me, and if a model succeeds in predicting a storm in a season, it gets a bit more reliability unless it busts on the next storm horribly. Can't go by model accuracy on winter storms during hurricane season.
 
Storm5 said:
I trust no model in tropical season . I've seen the euro bust , the eps bust , gefs . Truth is we have seen them all bust . If this were winter I'd ride the the JMA


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To be honest w/you I'm just throwing crap out. I haven't seen any of the models over the last day or so. Just wanted to get in a jab at JB


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ForsythSnow said:
LOL. All models are completely even chances each year to me, and if a model succeeds in predicting a storm in a season, it gets a bit more reliability unless it busts on the next storm horribly. Can't go by model accuracy on winter storms during hurricane season.
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HAHA! So true.


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whatalife said:
To be honest w/you I'm just throwing crap out. I haven't seen any of the models over the last day or so. Just wanted to get in a jab at JB


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How dare you take a jab at Webbers favorite met

I just can't wait for winter and the twitter lessons Eric gives JB. They were epic last winter


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Storm5 said:
Who dare you take a jab at Webbers favorite met

I just can't wait for winter and the twitter lessons Eric gives JB. They were epic last winter


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HAHA! It will be epic.

I figured I needed to clarify my statement before being crucified for leaning one way or another w/a model...


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whatalife said:
To be honest w/you I'm just throwing crap out. I haven't seen any of the models over the last day or so. Just wanted to get in a jab at JB


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JB still going with Euro this AM! He's special
 
A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to begin investigating 93L by about 330pm or so late this afternoon, with another aircraft scheduled for early tomorrow morning. The influx of data retrieved by these missions should significantly aid in model forecasts and allow for more accurate initializations. Passage near/over the Yucatan Peninsula will still provide a major stumbling block for NWP and I wouldn't be surprised to see a LLC form over the north or western coast of the Yucatan where low level frictional convergence is maximized (as opposed to the Yucatan Channel and SE Gulf as the GFS currently implores)
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Webberweather53 said:
A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to begin investigating 93L by about 330pm or so late this afternoon, with another aircraft scheduled for early tomorrow morning The influx of data retrieved by these missions should significantly aid in model forecasts and allow for more accurate initializations. Passage near/over the Yucatan Peninsula will still provide a major stumbling block for NWP and I wouldn't be surprised to see a LLC form over the north or western coast of the Yucatan where low level frictional convergence is maximized (as opposed to the Yucatan Channel and SE Gulf as the GFS currently implores)
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Webb - 100%
Data is the missing component so far!
Best,
Phil
 
As we await confirmation from recon later this afternoon, surface observations seem to suggest 93L's low level center is attempting to form on the east coast of the Yucatan, as indicated by the light WNW winds at Belize City which shift to out of the ESE towards the Yucatan Channel. As I mentioned earlier this is also where low level frictional convergence is currently being maximized by the differential in coefficient of friction between the Yucatan peninsula and adjacent water in the NW Caribbean. Although it's certainly possible that a new low level center forms underneath the rapidly deteriorating convective mass further east and concomitant mid level center evident on satellite, I would be a bit more hesitant to lean towards that solution in this instance considering how much further from the wave axis this would place the LLC and given that there are already earth relative westerlies on the Belize coast. While visual appeasing to get sucked into thinking a LLC is underneath the gargantuan convective blob over the Cayman islands, all the winds at the surface underneath that convective mass are out of the SE, with most of the rotation observed on satellite being confined relatively close to the level of maximum heating (~700 hPa).
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Webberweather53 said:
A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to begin investigating 93L by about 330pm or so late this afternoon, with another aircraft scheduled for early tomorrow morning. The influx of data retrieved by these missions should significantly aid in model forecasts and allow for more accurate initializations. Passage near/over the Yucatan Peninsula will still provide a major stumbling block for NWP and I wouldn't be surprised to see a LLC form over the north or western coast of the Yucatan where low level frictional convergence is maximized (as opposed to the Yucatan Channel and SE Gulf as the GFS currently implores)
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Thanks for the update. Data will surely aid the models.


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GFS low mid level height bias on display at its finest here. Look how much stronger the subtropical ridge to the north of 93L is being analyzed at today's 12z initialization vs the 6z run's 6 hour forecast. Lol, how many times have we seen this movie before?
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accu35 said:
I think when its final, it will be a central gulf coast hit
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I agree. I would say that this has been interesting to watch so far, but I would say that the NAVGEM has been probably the better model out of them all. It seems to know where the other models will go. The Euro caved to a US solution, while the others caved to a more west solution and I bet the convergence is Between Texas and Mobile.
 
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