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Pattern November Knock-Out

Storm5 said:
Greetings from the mountains !!! Look what I found. I bring hope as we roll into a new month
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Too bad you didn’t bring Costco’s Finest.


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Torch, warm, cool, cold coming?
These, which are in our Wiki, are always worth at least a look ... model run to model run, member by member ...
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_0z/tloop.html
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_6z/tloop.html
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_12z/tloop.html
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_12z/t7loop.html
Not suggesting how anyone else does their thing, but might I suggest that looking at individual members, over time, can depict a trend before the full model catches it ... just offering one Curmudgeon's thoughts ... :confused:
 
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Webberweather53 said:
The EPS can't make up it's mind lol now it's colder again thru day 8-9
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The difference between the 12Z GEFS and the colder 12Z EPS days 9-11 is largely a NW Canadian/Arctic high that the Euro/EPS bring down into the Midwest/Plains (with sub -20C 850s getting to far southern Canada) but which the GFS/GEFS keeps in Canada. Which is right? Any guesses? In between? This is unusual because more often than not the GEFS is colder.
 
tennessee storm said:
Can't believe folks think we're headed toward a snowy winter .... Lol come on now....
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Why can't you believe it? For every winter some folks think we're headed toward snowy and I expect that will never change. Besides folks with snow bias and it being fun for some to predict lots of snow, there's more uncertainty with SE snow than with temperatures since it only takes one big one. Be careful what you say because this kind of post can come back to bite you though I'm assuming you'd be more than happy to be bit in this case!
 
GaWx said:
Why can't you believe it? For every winter some folks think we're headed toward snowy and I expect that will never change. Besides folks with snow bias and it being fun for some to predict lots of snow, there's more uncertainty with SE snow than with temperatures since it only takes one big one. Be careful what you say because this kind of post can come back to bite you though I'm assuming you'd be more than happy to be bit in this case!
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That would be one bite that would "Hurt so good" :)
 
GaWx said:
Why can't you believe it? For every winter some folks think we're headed toward snowy and I expect that will never change. Besides folks with snow bias and it being fun for some to predict lots of snow, there's more uncertainty with SE snow than with temperatures since it only takes one big one. Be careful what you say because this kind of post can come back to bite you though I'm assuming you'd be more than happy to be bit in this case!
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Yeah, you never know what the weather in the Southeast can bring. You can be primed for a good snow and get zip or a great year, or you could have a bad outlook and get the same thing. As you said, one good storm can do it. Only things in looking for is a cold Christmas and cooler than last year winter.
 
That's one thing to remember, especially outside of the northern parts of the southeast. You can be very warm all winter but it takes just one storm to get to or eclipse average.
 
GaWx said:
Why can't you believe it? For every winter some folks think we're headed toward snowy and I expect that will never change. Besides folks with snow bias and it being fun for some to predict lots of snow, there's more uncertainty with SE snow than with temperatures since it only takes one big one. Be careful what you say because this kind of post can come back to bite you though I'm assuming you'd be more than happy to be bit in this case!
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Im glad to mention, it only takes one big one. It really does, one big winterstorm would put most if not all southeast above snowfall avg LOL!! One thing about having these early November warmth is when you start getting cold meeting these juiced up low riders lows, than watch out. The gulf being so warm still produces mounts of moisture .
 
GaWx said:
The difference between the 12Z GEFS and the colder 12Z EPS days 9-11 is largely a NW Canadian/Arctic high that the Euro/EPS bring down into the Midwest/Plains (with sub -20C 850s getting to far southern Canada) but which the GFS/GEFS keeps in Canada. Which is right? Any guesses? In between? This is unusual because more often than not the GEFS is colder.
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I honestly do not know for sure for the life of me, I'd side w/ the EPS on a planetary scale because of its higher skill scores and I suspect it may be onto something with a punctuated shortwave eroding the northern edge of this ridge.. It's pretty hard to maintain a circumpolar ridge from the US Rockies to Scandinavia and not have at least one or two decent troughs somewhere in between unlike what the GFS ensemble is currently advertising...
gefs_z500a_nh_41.png
 
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I swear I wonder what some of these NE US weenies are smoking...
In what universe is this below or even well below normal in the NE US & that's not including October which was warm af
Lmao
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Like Webber said, I think with -EQBO which should allow more mjo influence that we have periods of real cold come down and like always, comes down to timing. Also, if niña weakens some, we be OK I think
 
Mr. Golf said:
Like Webber said, I think with -EQBO which should allow more mjo influence that we have periods of real cold come down and like always, comes down to timing. Also, if niña weakens some, we be OK I think
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for everything i have studied n read on this nina... appears peeks in late january...like webber lso said. i like the chances for severe later in the winter for midsouth tn valley region....
 
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