No ugly talk
LOL!!
Can we at least get snow? Thats all im asking for, lol.
Webber, I know u said December would be our best chance to get cold or At least seasonal. With that said, since we will apparently have +nao, are we thinking down the lines of maybe Jan or Feb now?
The predicted temps ticked down one run yesterday and they've increased yet again. I don't expect the models to bust so hard that we see temps turn way below normal by mid month and the strong agreement amongst them and support from the large scale seasonal pattern only lends more confidence to their solution
February by far is the most likely to observe a +NAO but it may occur in all 3 months. I anticipate more volatility and a less predominant positive regime this year vs last winter because the far North Atlantic is warmer, the QBO is easterly (favoring more MJO activity), & this NIÑA may remain east based (although that's highly uncertain), which will aid in reinforcing a low frequency pattern that's less conducive to a strong Icelandic Vortex however we will have to fight against an unfavorable interannual-interdecadal bgd state, persistence, etc... I would lean neutral to positive if anything but probably not as positive as last winter given the aforementioned reasons
Greetings from the mountains !!! Look what I found. I bring hope as we roll into a new month
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Some were trying to allude/hint to the potential for temps to go below normal in this time frame and assumed the one run cooling trend was going to continue hence we aren't talking about just a 5 degree difference here lol, perhaps as much as 15 degrees or so had that trend continued in earnest. No Kori didn't hack my account and to be frank I don't care if you or anyone else doesn't like what I have to say about the forthcoming pattern, im not going to sit here and lie to you and gush over every single thing that supports cold and snow because that's not unbiased forecasting, that's unhinged wishcasting (which unfortunately JB et al are all too familiar with). If this means every one of my posts here are about mild weather and/or a blowtorch for the next several weeks so be it, I'd rather be right and/or actually gain forecasting experience in doing so than whoefully disappointed for no apparent reasonDid Kory hack Webbers account?? All I hear is : blah, blah, warm, blah blah, torch....models coming in warmer, which I really don't get, unless we're talking about a winter storm?? What's the difference between 75-80 degrees, really? As long as it's in Nov and not Jan/Feb
