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Pattern November Knock-Out

olhausen said:
I’m really not understanding all the negativity about how warm it’s going to be. This year feels nothing like last year as we’ve already had multiple cold fronts that have dropped temps well below normal for a number of days. Today will be the second day in a row where my temp doesn’t get above 45 degrees. My average high is 66 and I’ve had plenty of days that were below that when the avg high was even higher. Heck I remember the cold front that came in during September and I barely got to 60 for a high. We live in the south and so we are going to have big swings from hot to cold and from cold to hot. I think we are all overacting to every warm front the models show because of how bad it was last winter.
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FWIW; If I remember correctly, November 1987 (the season that eventually lead to the January 1988 snow storm) was very warm first half of the month (at least it was in Nashville)
 
Is it even possible ... :eek:

gfs_T2ma_us_fh312-312.gif
 
We locked into a warmer pattern until further notice. Trough west ridge east :(. If it lasts through most of winter, cliff diving will begin in earnest sooner than later
 
Hah I don't think we're flipping back to a trough-y pattern but I do feel like we're going to have cold fronts...we always do during this time of the year.
 
Well I do at least hope the warm up is not as warm as advertised, I'd take 70-75 but 80? Meh.

Don't have a problem with the flip flop pattern right now though.
 
Of course I don't think it'll play out as advertised as it's lala land, but the cold front in the models is what happens in transitional months. Flip flopping. I think November is more transitional than October is.
 
olhausen said:
I’m really not understanding all the negativity about how warm it’s going to be. This year feels nothing like last year as we’ve already had multiple cold fronts that have dropped temps well below normal for a number of days. Today will be the second day in a row where my temp doesn’t get above 45 degrees. My average high is 66 and I’ve had plenty of days that were below that when the avg high was even higher. Heck I remember the cold front that came in during September and I barely got to 60 for a high. We live in the south and so we are going to have big swings from hot to cold and from cold to hot. I think we are all overacting to every warm front the models show because of how bad it was last winter.
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Thank goodness I am not the only one.... I really have never understood why folks get so emotional over these things..lmao. It's weather...it's going to do what it wants, when it wants and could careless how we feel about it. Why anyone gets bent out of shape or starts stressing/getting frustrated is ridiculous to say the least. I am one that just goes with the flow... you can't live and die by each run, forecast or extended outlook. That's just absurd.

Enjoy it. It's the only weather we got!
 
I’m with you guys on the early cliff diving while the tide is still out. I enjoy the silly cliches and making a mockery of the emotional investment some make in the weather. I also enjoy taking heat for my premature sled purchase. Which reminds me... the end of the 18z GFS has got me in the mood.


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I'm starting to notice that the various GEFS means aren't as warm as they were in the SE US a couple of days ago for 11/8+...fwiw. They are actually fairly close to seasonable. But the generally more accurate EPS runs remain warmer than the GEFS and above normal.
 
GaWx said:
I'm starting to notice that the various GEFS means aren't as warm as they were in the SE US a couple of days ago for 11/8+...fwiw. They are actually fairly close to seasonable.
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And I'd happily take that. It's always a marathon, not a sprint.
 
Mr. Golf said:
Wxrisk has his preliminary winter outlook on FB now :rolleyes:
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Screen Shot 2017-10-29 at 10.22.55 PM.png

Ugh lol he's certainly free to believe what he wants but a few issues I'll just broad brush over...
A) La Nina or any ENSO event for that matter doesnt just magically end, even if the ocean component is lost entirely in a month from now (unlikely), the atmosphere will still resemble a NINA through at least the entirety of Jan and/or Feb

B) What in the world would lead anyone to believe or bank on December being the warmest winter month in the eastern US w/ -ENSO forcing?

C) Background AGW confirmed by recent observations and the proxy record, inter annual variability, and general circulation changes induced by alterations in the local Atlantic THC support positive regime this winter even though it may not be as positive as last year w/ easterly QBO coupled w/ higher than normal MJO variance as well as a warmer far North Atlantic
 
Webberweather53 said:
View attachment 1444

Ugh lol he's certainly free to believe what he wants but a few issues I'll just broad brush over...
A) La Nina or any ENSO event for that matter doesnt just magically end, even if the ocean component is lost entirely in a month from now (unlikely), the atmosphere will still resemble a NINA through at least the entirety of Jan and/or Feb

B) What in the world would lead anyone to believe or bank on December being the warmest winter month in the eastern US w/ -ENSO forcing?

C) Background AGW confirmed by recent observations and the proxy record, inter annual variability, and general circulation changes induced by alterations in the local Atlantic THC support positive regime this winter even though it may not be as positive as last year w/ easterly QBO coupled w/ higher than normal MJO variance as well as a warmer far North Atlantic
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I've had some Atlantic THC before. It's nowhere near as good as California THC tho...
 
EPS/CFS hinting at the potential for temperature anomalies to reach/exceed 5C in the SE US in/around the 2nd week of November. For many that means highs in the 70s & 80s, perhaps record breaking warmth... Again.
eps_t850a_5d_conus_39.png
cfs-avg_T2maMean_us_2.png
 
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