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Tropical Hurricane Jose

GFS is concerning, but once again the models are all over the place and there's no consensus at all this far out. Going to be another long week.
 
Actually gfs landfalls at NC/Va border, dang it we've seen this movie before....
At least last night's eps kept Jose ots, almost all members this run, going to all depend on the loop and then just how strong the atlantic ridge gets (models consistently been underestimating that ridge all year.... )
 
JMA agrees with the ukmet and has a hurricane approaching Miami at 144

The JMA isn't that great but the fact it agrees with the UKMET isn't so great

12z UKMET looks like its landfalling in Eastern Florida at 144
 
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12z GEFS mean is probably 100-150 miles right off the Florida coast and then drifting north where the spread goes crazy. Much much closer than 6z and very close to the Bahamas.

I can't believe we may be doing this again.
 
Euro is just offshore but I really don't know what the heck the model is trying to do with Jose here, there's a monster ridge to its west over Bermuda and another over northern New England and southern Quebec, yet Jose moves NE ots? Yea I call bs...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Euro is just offshore but I really don't know what the heck the model is trying to do with Jose here, there's a monster ridge to its west over Bermuda and another over northern New England and southern Quebec, yet Jose moves NE ots? Yea I call bs...
Click to expand...
That's weird. It may very well end weird for Jose, or the GFS and UKMET are being weird.
 
I think I need a drink. I can't do this again. FYI I'm w/o power at my house and yet somehow I have power at work


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I just have trouble believing a route to the NE like that when there's nothing but ridging to the NE of Jose extending from Bermuda to the Hudson Bay. The model is latching onto a very feeble and weakening s/w remnant that's actually part of the same trough interacting with Irma atm and tries to send Jose into it. Not buying it.
 
Omgd JBs Cone is so wide lol
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