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Tropical Hurricane Jose

Interesting! What a year if we could get a 3rd Cat 4 to make US landfall!
 
This planetary wave configuration with a large upper level ridge centered over south-central Canada, bridging with the western flank of the Azores-Bermuda high usually doesn't end well when there's a powerful TC lurking in the vicinity of the Bahamas...
gfs_z500a_atl_26.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
This planetary wave configuration with a large upper level ridge centered over south-central Canada, bridging with the western flank of the Azores-Bermuda high usually doesn't end well when there's a powerful TC lurking in the vicinity of the Bahamas...
View attachment 1182
Click to expand...
Seems we've heard this before, to be honest I'm not going to be shocked it this is eventually a GOM threat, not suggesting it but nothing will surprise me as you mentioned GFS horrible with Atlantic ridge

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metwannabe said:
Seems we've heard this before, to be honest I'm not going to be shocked it this is eventually a GOM threat, not suggesting it but nothing will surprise me as you mentioned GFS horrible with Atlantic ridge

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Yeah that's definitely possible. If the ridge is any stronger than currently modeled, Jose is likely going to hit something even if it's just the Bahamas and not the US
 
Speaking of GFS, it continues to hit the NE when the setup on its runs are in the right position. I feel that if this happens, it's like we are visiting all the bad disaster scenarios in one year. We just had a Texas storm (Harvey) and we are about to get a Florida storm (Irma), so the East cost seems next?
gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_39.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017091012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_39.png
 
IMG_0204.PNG 12z UKMET is essentially a Jeanne repeat with Jose heading west/west-northwest towards the Florida coast by day 6-7. (Sorry for the image being cut off on my phone rn)
 
ForsythSnow said:
Speaking of GFS, it continues to hit the NE when the setup on its runs are in the right position. I feel that if this happens, it's like we are visiting all the bad disaster scenarios in one year. We just had a Texas storm (Harvey) and we are about to get a Florida storm (Irma), so the East cost seems next?
gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_39.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017091012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_39.png
Click to expand...
The GFS kept hitting New England with Irma and we know how that worked out...
 
UKMET, one of the two best major models for the tropics, at least appears to be a big SE US threat from Jose. Its 144 hour position is in the southern Bahamas moving WNW and at 922 mb OMG!!!

UK track information

HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.2N 65.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2017 0 21.2N 65.2W 985 67
0000UTC 11.09.2017 12 23.3N 67.3W 985 63
1200UTC 11.09.2017 24 25.3N 69.0W 989 54
0000UTC 12.09.2017 36 26.7N 69.2W 983 62
1200UTC 12.09.2017 48 26.8N 68.3W 974 66
0000UTC 13.09.2017 60 25.9N 67.0W 964 70
1200UTC 13.09.2017 72 24.5N 66.5W 959 75
0000UTC 14.09.2017 84 23.2N 66.8W 955 81
1200UTC 14.09.2017 96 22.3N 68.2W 951 76
0000UTC 15.09.2017 108 22.0N 70.1W 945 87
1200UTC 15.09.2017 120 22.2N 72.6W 939 92
0000UTC 16.09.2017 132 22.8N 74.8W 935 93
1200UTC 16.09.2017 144 23.8N 76.9W 922 98
 
GaWx said:
UKMET, one of the two best major models for the tropics, at least appears to be a big SE US threat from Jose. Its 144 hour position is in the southern Bahamas moving WNW and at 922 mb OMG!!!

UK track information

HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.2N 65.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2017 0 21.2N 65.2W 985 67
0000UTC 11.09.2017 12 23.3N 67.3W 985 63
1200UTC 11.09.2017 24 25.3N 69.0W 989 54
0000UTC 12.09.2017 36 26.7N 69.2W 983 62
1200UTC 12.09.2017 48 26.8N 68.3W 974 66
0000UTC 13.09.2017 60 25.9N 67.0W 964 70
1200UTC 13.09.2017 72 24.5N 66.5W 959 75
0000UTC 14.09.2017 84 23.2N 66.8W 955 81
1200UTC 14.09.2017 96 22.3N 68.2W 951 76
0000UTC 15.09.2017 108 22.0N 70.1W 945 87
1200UTC 15.09.2017 120 22.2N 72.6W 939 92
0000UTC 16.09.2017 132 22.8N 74.8W 935 93
1200UTC 16.09.2017 144 23.8N 76.9W 922 98
Click to expand...
That's very worrisome esp wrt the intensity of Jose. I remember the UKMET bringing Irma to about 940mb and I thought that was impressive. The intensity ceiling could be very high with Jose given its small size, it could take full advantage of its environment in a hurry if given an opportunity
 
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