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Tropical Hurricane Jose

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by Webberweather53, Aug 31, 2017.

  1. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    Some of the global models have hinted at this the past few days and given it's the peak of the season w/ the MJO over the eastern hemisphere, I wouldn't be shocked if this also ends up becoming a TC, unfortunately it will be in the shadow of Irma and its future will be dependent on the amount of shear Irma imparts on this and subsequent systems in the eastern MDR... I guess so much for no hurricanes from Sep 7-25 in the Atlantic...

    Screen Shot 2017-08-31 at 1.52.44 PM.png
     
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  2. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Seems I've seen that pinned tweet somewhere.... lol. Yeah no doubt looks crazy busy
     
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  3. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Who said it's 2005 all over again? Why. Just why. :confused:
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Next we have to deal with this system. Right after Irma wouldn't be good for wherever it could head if it forms.
    [​IMG]
     
  5. Weatherlover92

    Weatherlover92 Member

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    GFS sends Jose OTS on this 18z run.
     
  6. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Chance up to 0 / 40 .
     
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  7. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    Chance to go 0/60.
     
  8. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Invest 94L. Here we go with another system possibility. We need to watch this closely too, as it may have an influence on Irma.
     
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  9. Brent

    Brent Member

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    GFS hits the OBX in fantasy land as a significant hurricane
     
  10. Brent

    Brent Member

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    Hits long island this run as a significant hurricane
     
  11. Brent

    Brent Member

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    2am TWO

    Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
    pressure located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
    Islands are gradually becoming better organized. Satellite data
    indicate that this system is already producing winds near tropical
    storm force. There is a strong likelihood that a tropical depression
    or tropical storm
    will form within the next few days while the
    disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the
    tropical Atlantic Ocean.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
     
  12. Brent

    Brent Member

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    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 1
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
    1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

    ...10TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...12.3N 39.1W
    ABOUT 1505 MI...2420 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
     
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  13. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Looks like Jose is trying to do what Irma did. Developing an eye it looks like.
     
  14. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    While many are transfixed on Irma atm, we can't let our guard down with Jose. NWP models have been making its OTS route more difficult in the past few days...
    EPS

    AL12_2017090600_ECENS_large.png
    Screen Shot 2017-09-06 at 11.49.42 AM.png

    12L_geps_latest.png
     
  15. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    No doubt. There have already been some other models with the possibility of a US hit. Some of those members have bad paths. After day 5 though, it just goes nuts. Irma will be a big factor in where Jose goes.
     
  16. Brent

    Brent Member

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    this may threaten the same islands Irma just wiped out this weekend

    NHC has 115 mph not far from Barbuda Saturday
     
  17. Brent

    Brent Member

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    Euro at 240 has Major Hurricane Jose threatening Miami

    Yeah I know...
     
    Last edited: Sep 7, 2017
  18. Arcc

    Arcc Supporter Member

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    Lots of EPS members support that. Good grief.

    What is even worse is nearly all of the OTS membets go north very early.
     
  19. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    EPS day 10[​IMG]

    Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
     
  20. Weatherlover92

    Weatherlover92 Member

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    Yet another hurricane we can't go to sleep on completely.
     
  21. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    Hopefully this one drifts OTS. EPS supports the idea of this not impacting the US

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  22. Brent

    Brent Member

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    poor islands just hit by Irma

    The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
    islands of Antigua and Barbuda.
     
  23. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    Out to sea on the 12z gfs

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  24. Weatherlover92

    Weatherlover92 Member

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    Here goes Jose (and Lee following behind)

    [​IMG]
     
  25. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    We will have major hurricane Jose at 5. 2 at the same time!
     
  26. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Jose will become a 140 mph cat 4 now. Anyone want to place bets on it getting close to 5?
     
  27. SD

    SD Staff Member Administrator

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    Gfs hits Boston....wow. Jose might be around a while

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  28. WeatherLC

    WeatherLC Staff Member Administrator

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    Banter comment: y'all know trump won't allow Jose to hit the United States.

    Haha couldn't help it
     
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  29. WeatherLC

    WeatherLC Staff Member Administrator

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    Serious question though won't there be the same ridge that's affecting irma for Jose? Why does it recurve on most models?
     
  30. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    I did a double take when I saw this, but many members (nearly half) of the 0Z EPS actually hit the CONUS with Jose (yes, Jose) between 9/16 and 9/22 anywhere from FL to ME! So, we may have to deal with Jose after all in 8-14 days!
     
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2017

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