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Tropical Hurricane Jose

Yeah looks like ridge is building to me.... is it plausible that mother nature has decided every state from Tx all the way around the gulf and up the EC needs to get a storm this year. Holy crap
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There are so many different elements at play here. H5 will be critical in determining the path as the remnants of Irma may sweep it out to sea. It would be devastating and absolutely chaotic if somehow the remnants of Irma captured Jose and slammed it into the East coast. Not sure if that could happen, or Jose gets shoved south more.
 
Yeah there's a lot of elements to Jose's future track, but it's been trending further south & west in the longer term in general & given how NWP (even the EPS) handled the strength of the AB high w/ Irma, it definitely makes one a little bit uncomfortable to see guidance already hinting at a storm backing WSW yet again underneath a burgeoning subtropical high in the Atlantic....
 
It's way farther north than Irma with a trough approaching so it would be OTS


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BHS1975 said:
It's way farther north than Irma with a trough approaching so it would be OTS


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I wouldn't necessarily say that... Jose actually misses the trough on the European and gets shunted back W-WSW as a ridge builds near the east coast and over top of the storm by day 6-7.
Jose's journey OTS is liable to be quite muddled and may become increasingly difficult if he misses the first trough on day 4-5 (which is becoming more likely).
ecmwf_z500a_atl_11.png
 
Yeah but I've never seen and there has never been that I know of a storm come in from the east. The ne US is a different story.


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BHS1975 said:
Yeah but I've never seen and there has never been that I know of a storm come in from the east. The ne is a different story.


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But you're also assuming that the storm will be due east of NC when (if) it gets stuck underneath the ridge, it may end up further to the NE or even further SW (as we've seen of late). In any case, it has happened before as recently as 2002.
at200211.gif

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1933 Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane went over Bermuda and still hit NC/VA.
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There's also a storm in 1901 that formed halfway between Bermuda & the Azores and still ended up in the Gulf of Mexico
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These are just a few examples...
 
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Whoa that's crazy. With global warming I bet tracks will get even wackier with the expansion of subtropical ridging.


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BHS1975 said:
Whoa that's crazy. With global warming I bet tracks will get even wackier with the expansion of subtropical ridging.


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We don't knot to my knowledge whether or not it has anything to do with GW. I honestly don't believe this season has anything to do with it. Extremes happen, and unless we get a season like this for the next 50 years, I don't thing the "GW = more storms, more dangerous storms" argument stands well. Cherry picking isn't going to go well either by saying this year is a sign of GW's impacts. There have been whacky tracks in the past, as Webber posted above. They just happen in the right conditions.
 
Jose misses the initial trough on the 18z GFS and does a cyclonic loop w/ Jose and is turning back westward by 144 HR, similar to the ECMWF/UKMET solutions...
gfs_mslp_wind_watl_25.png
 
Looks like it hit some cooler water cause the clouds warmed up quickly.


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18z GEFS trying to catch onto the idea of Jose doing a cyclonic loop in the SW Atlantic and getting steered back westward towards the Bahamas thereafter. Obviously a lot to sort out between now & then...
gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_36.png
 
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