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Tropical Hurricane Jose

Model run down as of 6z 9/9...

GEFS
12L_gefs_latest.png

EPS
AL12_2017090900_ECENS_large.png

GEPS
12L_geps_latest.png
MOGREPS (UKMET ensemble)


Screen Shot 2017-09-09 at 8.33.13 AM.png


Generally speaking most NWP except Jose to slow down after day 3 once steering currents break down to his north and he will likely miss the initial trough passing to his NE on day 4-5. Thereafter, a ridge builds to his north and he is likely going to lose some latitude and undergo a cyclonic loop. Thereafter, it's very unclear where Jose will be, but this storm is liable to end up much closer to the US as a result of getting trapped underneath the subtropical high, especially in comparison to what was anticipated even a few days ago.... All interests in the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and eastern US should continue to vigilantly monitor Jose in addition to Irma.
 
Getting closer each run, seems like I've seen this movie before....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_34.png
 
metwannabe said:
Getting closer each run, seems like I've seen this movie before....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_34.png
Click to expand...

Yep NWP can't handle tropical cyclones losing latitude in the face of strengthening subtropical highs, probably going to keep trending southwestward w/ time unfortunately... Definitely bares watching in the southeastern US.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yep NWP can't handle tropical cyclones losing latitude in the face of strengthening subtropical highs, probably going to keep trending southwestward w/ time unfortunately... Definitely bares watching in the southeastern US.
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Incredible just freaking incredible.... this may be a hurricane season for the books no doubt!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yep NWP can't handle tropical cyclones losing latitude in the face of strengthening subtropical highs, probably going to keep trending southwestward w/ time unfortunately... Definitely bares watching in the southeastern US.
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Totally agree and there are multiple strong CV storms in the past as proof. Lack of sampling of the atmosphere over the ocean especially ridge dynamics through the vertical. And, I believe, lack of understanding of the interaction between large strong storms and the ridge itself.
Jose is in a different environment as opposed to Irma currently with a TUTT directly to it's NW in front of the main ridging instead of when Irma was in this position the TUTT was to the NE ahead of the main ridge. It will be interesting if this TUTT lifts out or moves NNW and as the ridging fill's in that space, to see how strong and how far west the main ridge will build. Imo that's what will decide Jose's fate and any conus affects. It really irks me that forecasters refuse to acknowledge model weaknesses/biases time and again and input their own skills into forecasts. Unless we are solidly in a generation of silicon reliant met's who just don't have the skills to forecast on their own anymore.
Just my :weenie: opinion
 
Jackstraw said:
Totally agree and there are multiple strong CV storms in the past as proof. Lack of sampling of the atmosphere over the ocean especially ridge dynamics through the vertical. And, I believe, lack of understanding of the interaction between large strong storms and the ridge itself.
Jose is in a different environment as opposed to Irma currently with a TUTT directly to it's NW in front of the main ridging instead of when Irma was in this position the TUTT was to the NE ahead of the main ridge. It will be interesting if this TUTT lifts out or moves NNW and as the ridging fill's in that space, to see how strong and how far west the main ridge will build. Imo that's what will decide Jose's fate and any conus affects. It really irks me that forecasters refuse to acknowledge model weaknesses/biases time and again and input their own skills into forecasts. Unless we are solidly in a generation of silicon reliant met's who just don't have the skills to forecast on their own anymore.
Just my :weenie: opinion
Click to expand...
and brave the storm to come, for it surely looks like rain ...
wind and rain
 
12z eps suggests it stays offshore . But that's a long way out will change

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Yea the EPS was near Bermuda a few days ago and while they're offshore now the suite has been progressively creeping southwestward after Jose completes his cyclonic loop south of Bermuda.
 
And yet another crazy track, it's actually bending back NW in this frame.... I swear I believe Irma was in this spot on model runs at one point and we were thinking it was gonna hit Delmarva peninsula, then Va, then OBX, then SC....
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_36.png
 
Jose makes a run for the East Coast on the GFS, misses the OBX by about 200 miles

Looks like it may curve into the east coast north of the Carolinas at 222
 
Hooks into the Mid-Atlantic around MD/DE/NJ between 252 and 264 hours

I remember when Irma was doing this too
 
Overnight models still suggest Jose stays offshore. Still a long way to go
72d7bfe388b9bc2dbfbac209f51f6c73.jpg


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Lol GFS seems to be up to its usual tricks of decaying subtropical highs too quickly and plowing TCs into them. 12z looks stronger with the ridge north of Jose by day 5 and it may continue to trend stronger...
gfs_z500trend_atl_10.png
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