You think ?
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Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
Very informative, and quite spot on (of course), Webb!Sucks we don't know what's happening under the hood here with Jose right now w/o recon regarding its intensity and internal structure. As I mentioned a few days ago, in a case like this with a marginal, small TC and inherently unstable vortex, it's not out of the ordinary for a storm like Jose to relocate it's LLC downshear, further to the south, underneath the deeper convective canopy and higher cyclonic potential vorticity and if this somehow comes to pass, would put a massive wrench in the models... This might seem like a minor detail in the short term, but it matters a lot for the long term future of Jose...
Despite being a huge western outlier at the moment, it's worth mentioning that the UKMET is beating all other NWP models with the track of Jose thus far at day 5, even the ECMWF....
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and an Advil or three ...This graphic is bound to change a lot over the next couple days once Jose completes his loop so take these skill scores thus far w/ a grain of salt.
That is a big worry. Seeing it beating the other models 120 hours out is never a good sign when you want to see a system go OTS. Meanwhile, the HWRF is a bit SW and Jose almost looks like it's moving south per satellite.Despite being a huge western outlier at the moment, it's worth mentioning that the UKMET is beating all other NWP models with the track of Jose thus far at day 5, even the ECMWF....
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