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Tropical Hurricane Jose

"The microwave data indicated that Jose's center is a little more
southeast than previously estimated, and the initial motion
estimate is now 125/8 kt."
 
GFS has definitely shifted majorly west today, if it does this again tomorrow it'll be hitting at least the OBX or further up

UKMET should be out in 15 minutes or so

Edit no coordinates yet but I'm hearing the UKMET shifted way east, well east of even the Bahamas much less Florida

Yup but has a beast hurricane between the US and Bermuda

1200UTC 17.09.2017 108 28.0N 75.2W 929 87
0000UTC 18.09.2017 120 28.9N 75.2W 927 89
1200UTC 18.09.2017 132 30.1N 75.5W 921 90
0000UTC 19.09.2017 144 31.1N 75.4W 919 87
 
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UKMET shifted east, very similar to the GFS' track, but it has a category 4 or 5 hurricane sitting precariously over the Gulf Stream south of Hatteras... (Ignore the wind)
HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.0N 66.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2017 0 27.0N 66.8W 977 61
1200UTC 13.09.2017 12 26.2N 66.3W 976 64
0000UTC 14.09.2017 24 25.3N 66.3W 965 71
1200UTC 14.09.2017 36 24.9N 67.2W 960 76
0000UTC 15.09.2017 48 25.0N 68.6W 962 82
1200UTC 15.09.2017 60 25.6N 70.5W 960 79
0000UTC 16.09.2017 72 26.2N 72.5W 959 76
1200UTC 16.09.2017 84 26.6N 74.0W 952 81
0000UTC 17.09.2017 96 27.2N 74.8W 942 85
1200UTC 17.09.2017 108 28.0N 75.2W 929 87
0000UTC 18.09.2017 120 28.9N 75.2W 927 89
1200UTC 18.09.2017 132 30.1N 75.5W 921 90
0000UTC 19.09.2017 144 31.1N 75.4W 919 87
 
GFS looks to stall around day 8, now about to hit the OBX/SE VA from the NORTHEAST :confused:

CMC stalls a bit then recurves offshore New England though its close enough for impacts
 
Might be worth watching invest 96E in the eastern Pacific. The GFS takes its remnants across the Gulf of Mexico and Central America and places them over Florida, breaking down the southern periphery of the ridge over the contiguous US, creating enough of a weakness to keep Jose a wee bit closer to the US. Need to pay attention to this feature over the coming days....
 
Euro is way OTS through 144, almost hits Bermuda​

At 168 it goes a bit closer to the NE US and then pretty much stalls midway between Bermuda and New England through 216

At 240 its moving west towards NJ/DE/MD :rolleyes:
 
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Brent said:
Euro is way OTS through 144, almost hits Bermuda​

At 168 it goes a bit closer to the NE US and then pretty much stalls midway between Bermuda and New England through 216

At 240 its moving west towards NJ/DE/MD :rolleyes:
Click to expand...
Yeah crazy how the Euro went west at the last of the run
 
00z eps
1d2981afc563e4c7cfff4888ca3b39ac.jpg


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ECMWF and its ensemble suite has been way too far north & east w/ Jose even just a few days out...

The UKMET on the other hand has been to far south & the last run makes a more realistic anticyclonic loop. A compromise towards what the GFS has been printing out is likely in order...

tr4.png

tr3.png
 
Unless Jose relocates the llc southward I'm gonna lean towards ots.... however, almost all guidance shows the steering currents collapsing once again once it gets north with CMC drifting back towards US before heading NE, the GFS sends it SE before heading out (if you believe the gfs we will still be talking about Jose almost 2 weeks from now) and of course the Euro was heading west towards the NE at the end of it's run. We may eventually have a storm that never bother's anyone but that ending is long from being written..... crazy stuff.
 
I'm sure I'm looking at this wrong or there is better imagery somewhere but is that the center getting very close to 25N?
Capture.jpg
 
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